The US Election: The Game-Changer for Bulgaria’s Next Cabinet?

Political analysts are discussing the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election on the negotiations for forming a government in Bulgaria. Speculations revolve around whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will emerge victorious, with some commentators suggesting that Bulgaria's political parties, particularly GERB, may delay their coalition discussions until the outcome is known. However, experts argue that such views are exaggerated and potentially irresponsible.

Damiana Veleva from Radio Free Europe highlights the general sentiment among Bulgarian politicians who believe that government negotiations will be stalled until after the US election on November 5. The results could influence which parties GERB may consider as partners for governance. This narrative was prevalent on the night of October 27 when analysts discussed the importance of the U.S. election for Bulgaria’s political landscape.

Critics, including former Bulgarian ambassador to the US Elena Poptodorova, express concern that this mindset halts necessary discussions and compromises the political process. She emphasizes that while the US elections are significant for foreign policy considerations, they should not dictate Bulgaria’s internal political actions or be used to justify procrastination.

After the Bulgarian parliamentary elections, which confirmed GERB as the leading party with 69 deputies, Boyko Borissov, the party leader, stated that he excluded only “Revival” from coalition talks. Some analysts speculate that if Trump wins, GERB may feel less pressured to align with pro-Western parties, potentially opening the door for partnerships with pro-Kremlin factions like "Revival."

Despite this speculation, many experts assert that the outcomes in the US will not decisively influence Bulgarian coalition dynamics. They argue that any coalition considerations should primarily be driven by domestic political realities rather than American electoral results. The ongoing dialogue about the relationship between Bulgaria and the US highlights a misconception that has taken root in Bulgarian political discourse.

Poptodorova underscores that the actual winner of the U.S. elections may not be known immediately, potentially delaying the confirmation of results until January. Thus, the notion that Bulgaria's political processes should be on hold because of the American elections could serve as a convenient excuse rather than a legitimate strategy.

Furthermore, some political figures have expressed that Borissov will be hesitant to form alliances based on the outcomes of the US elections. Sociologist Andrey Raichev noted that Borissov is unlikely to make any significant moves until the election results are finalized. This sentiment was echoed by other commentators, who pointed out that many Bulgarian politicians were framing the situation in a way that suggests dependency on foreign events.

However, the prevailing view among political analysts remains that the internal dynamics of Bulgarian politics should not be tied to the results of US elections. Despite speculation about a possible coalition with "Revival" should Trump win, others insist that GERB will prioritize its reputation within Europe, citing the need for ideological consistency as a barrier to any potential partnership with pro-Russian entities.

Additionally, the discussion around the impact of a Trump victory on the fate of certain Bulgarian officials under anti-corruption sanctions reflects the complexity of the situation. While some claim that a Trump presidency could ease pressure regarding sanctions, historical context indicates that the policies governing these matters may not shift significantly regardless of who occupies the White House.

The idea that Bulgaria's political fate hinges on the outcome of the US elections is a notion that many experts contend is misguided. Poptodorova argues that delaying the formation of a government would ultimately be detrimental to Bulgaria, urging for a more proactive approach to governance irrespective of foreign electoral outcomes.