Rising EU Concerns: Russia May Target Member States

In response to heightened fears of a Russian assault on an EU state, former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö outlined the urgent need for Europe to bolster its civil and military defense capabilities. "Russia has the capacity to expand its aggression beyond Ukraine into other parts of Europe, and we must prepare for that risk by evaluating all potential threats," he stated, responding to questions from Bulgarian media outlet "Club Z". The comments accompanied the presentation of a European defense report commissioned by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who was also present.

The report notes an increasing threat of armed attacks against EU member states, though Niinistö refrained from specifying particular countries. It stresses the need for preparedness across several fronts, citing climate change, escalating hybrid warfare tactics, and the mounting risk of cyber and sabotage attacks as key concerns.

During her remarks, von der Leyen highlighted Russia's projected defense spending for the year, expected to exceed that of all EU countries combined. She underscored the EU’s vulnerability to cross-sectoral crises and emphasized the importance of increased European defense and production of dual-use goods.

The document calls for further integration between civil and military sectors within the EU and prioritizes creating dual-purpose infrastructure and supply chains for defense. It also suggests expanding Europe’s capacity to support Ukraine long-term, advocating for a significant increase in military production to offset potential reductions in US support, especially in light of the upcoming American elections.

The report further emphasizes the importance of counteracting hybrid attacks through strengthened European intelligence cooperation and robust counterintelligence measures. It proposes the development of an EU-wide intelligence network to counter hostile actions, and a "deterrence by denial" approach, which would close gaps in intelligence practices and cross-border information sharing.

The creation of an anti-sabotage network is also recommended to enable rapid response and prevention across member states. Another proposal includes a “deterrence through punishment” policy, which would selectively declassify intelligence assessments to expose and preemptively counter malicious actors.

An Investment Framework for Preparedness, allocating at least 20% of the EU budget, is suggested as the foundation of a resilient Union ready to respond to any significant threats. This report, Niinistö’s first major project since his presidency, was commissioned in March as von der Leyen acknowledged Finland’s deep understanding of Russian security threats. She referenced the historical Winter War between Finland and the USSR, underscoring how proximity to an aggressive power has shaped Finnish society’s outlook on national defense.

The Winter War, in which the USSR suffered severe casualties against a fiercely resistant Finland, marked a critical moment in European defense history. It is also thought to have played a role in Germany’s decision to later invade the USSR. Niinistö’s report argues for a strong, united front to counter contemporary threats and safeguard the EU’s security.