Over Half a Million Bulgarians Open to Selling Their Vote, Survey Finds

The issue of vote buying, controlled voting, and measures to prevent them often resurfaces ahead of elections. However, it has emerged with heightened intensity in the lead-up to Bulgaria’s seventh consecutive early parliamentary elections. Investigative reports, actions by the Ministry of Interior, and political disclosures have all shed light on the extent of the problem, which is becoming increasingly pressing as voter turnout in the country continues to decline. In such an environment, public trust in political parties and the electoral process itself is increasingly fragile.

A recent survey conducted by "Gallup International Balkan" for the Bulgarian National Television aimed to gauge public attitudes toward voting under incentives, coercion, or payment. Conducted between September 28 and October 6, 2024, among 806 respondents using the face-to-face tablet method, the study provides insights into the issue. When asked if they would vote for pay, coercion, or other incentives weeks before the election, 10% of respondents admitted they might, while 78% denied it, and 12% were uncertain. Although these responses are declarative and may not fully reflect the truth, they offer a basis for analyzing the scope of the problem.

Among the respondents who confirmed their intention to vote in the upcoming elections, the results did not differ significantly from the overall sample. However, while the share of "I don't know" responses decreases, there is a slight increase in both affirmative and negative responses among this group. Notably, 12% of those firmly planning to vote admitted they would accept incentives, which, with an estimated turnout of around 2 million voters, could translate to approximately 240,000 individuals. In reality, the numbers could be even higher.

Groups identified as most vulnerable to vote buying or coercion include those with lower educational attainment, low-income individuals, residents of smaller towns, and those without stable employment. Alarmingly, 25% of respondents with primary or lower education levels admitted they would accept voting incentives. The share of affirmative responses is even more pronounced among individuals identifying as Roma.

Historical data from Gallup International Balkan reveals that attitudes on this matter have remained stable over time, with no significant changes despite shifts in the political landscape. Surveys conducted in 2019, the summer of 2024, and now indicate consistent public sentiment.

Amid these findings, overall perceptions of the fairness of upcoming elections are predominantly negative. When asked if they believed the upcoming National Assembly elections would be free and fair, 62% of respondents expressed doubt, while only 18% were optimistic. Another 20% were undecided. This outlook appears increasingly concerning when compared with survey trends from the past decade.

The electorates of parties with a realistic chance of forming a government or taking leading positions in the National Assembly show more positive attitudes toward the election’s fairness. However, even among these supporters, optimism does not surpass pessimism. The data suggests an erosion of trust not only in political parties but also in the fundamental rules that govern Bulgaria’s political system.

Comparing the overall sentiment with that of individuals who have expressed a firm intention to vote, a slightly more moderate level of pessimism emerges. Nevertheless, over half of those intending to vote (54%) still believe the elections are unlikely to be free and fair.

It is unlikely that those planning to participate in the election would do so if they suspected the process was “rigged.” While many believe in their own integrity, there appears to be a growing sense of distrust in whether others are playing by the same rules.