Bulgarian Political Landscape: GERB Tops Polls, Disillusioned Voters Seek Alternatives

According to the latest survey by the "Mediana" agency, if elections were held today in Bulgaria, the GERB party would receive 24.5% of the vote. "Revival" (Vazrazhdane) follows in second place with 13.7%, while "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) would garner 12.1%. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP - United Left) is projected to receive 8.8%, with Ahmed Dogan's DPS (Alliance for Rights and Freedoms) at 8.7%, and "There Is Such a People" (TISP) at 7.0%. Peevski's DPS (New Beginning) is expected to secure 5.0%. This survey was conducted between October 8 and 13, 2024, involving 978 adults aged 18 and older through direct standardized interviews, and is representative of the country's adult population.

Interestingly, the survey reveals that 11.4% of respondents would choose "I do not support anyone," which indicates a significant portion of the electorate is disengaged. Meanwhile, "Blue Bulgaria" and MECH are projected to receive only 3% and 2.4%, respectively, placing them below the threshold for representation in the 51st parliament.

Sociologists from "Mediana" note that the upcoming elections could witness the lowest voter turnout since the onset of democratic reforms in Bulgaria. They estimate that approximately 1.9 to 2.1 million voters, or about 30% of those on electoral lists, are likely to participate. This trend indicates a broader withdrawal from political engagement among the electorate, as no single party has emerged as a focal point for voters' hopes and expectations.

Despite the anticipated low turnout, the sociologists suggest that forming a three-party majority government should not pose significant challenges. However, the stability and legitimacy of such a coalition, particularly in the eyes of the large segment of non-voting citizens, may be questionable. Additionally, the survey highlights that around 360,000 voters remain undecided ahead of the October 27 election, yet there appears to be no strong appeal from any party to attract these individuals.