Alpha Research: Bulgaria's Political Landscape Faces Uncertainty as Early Elections Approach

A recent study by "Alpha Research" reveals a complex and concerning landscape for voters as Bulgaria approaches its seventh consecutive early elections. The report highlights a weary and demotivated electorate, frustrated by the unproductive outcomes of the June elections and the political elite's inability to manage challenging situations.

As the campaign unfolds, GERB emerges as the leading political party, securing 23.9% of the projected votes, though this represents a slight decline from their last parliamentary election performance. Following GERB, the "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" coalition (WCC-DB) is in a close contest for second place with 14.4%, just ahead of the "Revival" party at 14.2%. Despite a dedicated base of supporters, these parties face limitations, or a "glass ceiling," that may hinder their ability to increase their vote counts. If voter enthusiasm does not significantly rise during the campaign, they risk experiencing a decrease in overall support.

An intriguing dynamic is developing within the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), where two factions are vying for influence. "Alpha Research" has recorded an initial voter distribution of 7.9% for the "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" led by Ahmed Dogan, while the "DPS - New Beginning," associated with Delyan Peevski, garners 6.1%. The study points out that the Peevski faction has shown stronger mobilization among its supporters compared to Dogan’s group. Additionally, the recognition of Dogan's wing under its new name remains limited, with only a slight distance in support levels when comparing both factions.

The report indicates that both DPS factions are likely to secure seats in parliament, although their combined support will be lower than the numbers achieved in the previous assembly, primarily due to reduced participation from segments of the Turkish ethnic group. Meanwhile, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is struggling to galvanize support, starting with a low projection of 6.3%, while "There Is Such a People" (TISP) is also close behind at 5.4%, although both parties are expected to surpass the electoral threshold.

Public sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, with 61.6% of surveyed adults characterizing the current political climate as "extremely worrying," reflecting widespread concern about institutional instability. This sentiment is pervasive across social and electoral demographics, with only some urban residents and GERB supporters exhibiting a less critical view.

Amidst this backdrop, 53.8% of Bulgarians doubt that a government will form even after the elections scheduled for October 27. This marks a notable shift in perception compared to previous elections, where a majority still held hope for a new cabinet. The prevailing belief that politicians will fail to fulfill their parliamentary responsibilities is expected to suppress voter turnout, with only the most dedicated party supporters remaining motivated to cast their ballots. Sociologists warn that unless these attitudes change, it is unlikely that parties will attract support beyond their core bases, further diminishing voter engagement as the campaign progresses.