Unstable Bulgaria: GERB and WCC-DB Clash Over Pre-Election Legislative Demands

The political landscape in Bulgaria appears increasingly unstable, with key parties failing to bridge their differences ahead of the upcoming elections on October 27. GERB and "We Continue the Change" - "Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) recognize that any viable government will need to be based on their coalition, yet they continue to struggle to find common ground. Boyko Borissov, whose party emerged unscathed from the dissolution of the previous administration but failed to form a government on its own, has proposed a gentleman’s agreement for a joint cabinet post-elections.

In response, WCC-DB, which saw a significant loss in voter support primarily due to the previous administration's failures, has issued a formal proposal. This proposal demands that GERB pass three critical laws before the parliament adjourns for the election campaign. These laws are essential for unlocking 10 billion leva (5 billion euros) from the EU's Recovery and Sustainability Plan. The proposed legislation includes measures for whistleblower protection, personal bankruptcy, and rules for electing members of the Anti-Corruption Commission, all of which are critical for improving the country’s governance and aligning with European standards.

However, if WCC-DB was truly committed to constructive engagement, they would have sought direct negotiations with GERB to address these issues rather than using media channels to issue ultimatums. GERB, on the other hand, criticized this approach and expressed skepticism about the urgency of passing these laws, claiming that the previous government had ample parliamentary support but failed to deliver. They responded with their governance program as a proposed framework for post-election collaboration.

Atanas Atanasov from Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (party of the WCC-DB coalition) suggested a compromise, noting that while it is essential for GERB and WCC-DB to find common ground, the proposed laws could also be addressed by the next parliament if time runs short. Meanwhile, "Yes, Bulgaria" (part of the WCC-DB coalition) insists that GERB must distance itself from Delyan Peevski to establish an anti-corruption majority.

The expectation that the election results alone will resolve the political crisis is viewed as risky. The past experience with GERB indicates that no single party will be able to govern independently. Lower voter turnout is anticipated, potentially exacerbating the current political stalemate.

The looming question is whether Bulgaria's political situation is even manageable. The inability of the main political forces to effectively address the crisis raises concerns. The prospect of a caretaker government or prolonged political uncertainty may only delay the crisis further and potentially lead to a radical shift in the political system.

The mutual blockade between GERB and WCC-DB may result in a zero-sum game, where neither party benefits. The upcoming election campaign, despite any future promises, is unlikely to address the crucial issue of stable governance. The effects of this instability are already becoming apparent, with investors fleeing the country and new investment opportunities dwindling.