Western Aid Shortages Hamper Ukraine’s Mobilization and Defense Efforts

Ukraine is working to address personnel shortages in its military, but delays and deficiencies in Western military aid are hampering its efforts to form effective combat units capable of defending critical areas and challenging broader military initiatives, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has highlighted that insufficient supplies, particularly of armored vehicles and artillery ammunition, have resulted in losses for the Ukrainian forces. Oleksandr Zavitnevych, chairman of Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada Defense Committee, mentioned on September 16 that Ukraine's mobilization is progressing "on schedule," with newly trained forces expected to make an impact on the battlefield within three months.

In May 2024, Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavliuk noted that while efforts are underway to form 10 new Ukrainian brigades, the primary challenge remains a lack of equipment rather than manpower. The ISW has consistently emphasized that Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian offensives and contest broad military initiatives depends heavily on Western military assistance and Ukraine’s efforts to rebuild and expand its military units.

Zelensky has also pointed out that Ukraine's operations in Kursk Oblast have forced Russia to reallocate some of its defense resources from Ukraine to Russia. However, Ukraine still requires sufficient resources and Western approval to strike Russian military targets to alleviate pressure on its forces across the theater.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to enhance its long-term military capacity by gradually increasing the size of its armed forces. Iran is advancing its nuclear weapons program while signaling a willingness to resume talks with the West on the matter.

In Russia, selected officials from the Ministry of Defense are facing accusations of corruption, as the military leadership undertakes efforts to address corruption within the MoD. On the ground, Ukrainian forces recently advanced into the Glushkovsky district of Kursk Oblast but faced Russian counterattacks, while also regaining territory near Kharkiv and Pokrovsk. Russian forces have made advances in areas such as Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar, and reports suggest that Russia is forcing migrants to serve in its army.