Political Instability Pushes Bulgaria’s Eurozone Accession to 2026
Finance | August 20, 2024, Tuesday // 12:20| viewsDue to ongoing political challenges, Bulgaria’s accession to the Eurozone is now projected to occur no earlier than 2026. Despite positive evaluations from Eurozone leaders about progress made earlier in the year, the country’s persistent political instability and failure to meet necessary criteria have led to this further delay.
Originally slated for January 2024, Bulgaria’s entry into the Eurozone was postponed to 2025 due to high inflation, which necessitated economic stabilization efforts. However, the situation has worsened with the country facing its seventh parliamentary election in three years, as three different political parties, including the populist "There Is Such a People" (TISP), failed to establish a stable government.
Adding to the complexity, Bulgaria remains the poorest EU member in terms of GDP per capita and continues to rank poorly on the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), reflecting ongoing issues with corruption. The country’s struggles with institutional shortcomings and limited innovation capacity are evident in its low ranking on the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI).
In terms of rule of law, Bulgaria’s position is comparable to nations such as Senegal, Ghana, and Jordan, underscoring serious deficits in judicial independence and law enforcement effectiveness. This situation highlights Bulgaria’s ongoing challenges in meeting European standards.
The influence of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and sanctioned tycoon Delyan Peevski further complicates Bulgaria’s path. Despite large-scale protests against corruption in 2020, reformers face significant obstacles due to entrenched political practices. Borissov’s GERB party and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), with Peevski’s influence, maintain strong support through clientelistic networks and local power structures, making substantial political change difficult.
The Bulgarian press, largely under Peevski’s control, reflects his significant impact on Bulgarian politics and corruption schemes. Peevski’s inclusion under the US Magnitsky Act and UK sanctions under the Global Anti-Corruption Regulations 2021 highlights the seriousness of these issues.
These factors demonstrate a critical need for transparency and reform in Bulgaria, with the international community emphasizing the importance of combating corruption and meeting Eurozone standards. However, the necessary reforms are significantly delayed, pushing the potential Eurozone entry date to 2026 at the earliest.
Experts from Scope Ratings attribute the delay to Bulgaria’s persistently high inflation and ongoing political instability, which contrasts with efforts to modernize and improve standards. Additionally, Russian disinformation campaigns have further complicated Bulgaria’s Eurozone aspirations by fostering public skepticism about the euro’s benefits and destabilizing political support for the transition.
This situation illustrates Bulgaria’s struggle to align with European standards while grappling with deep-rooted political and social divisions that hinder its progress.
Author: Blaga Thavard. She is a member of the Sofia Bar Association, a lawyer at Pappas & Associates law firm in Brussels. Her comment is for the publication EUobserver.
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