Bulgarian Elections: Early August Poll Shows GERB in Front, Unclear Battle for Runner-Up Spots

According to a recent Gallup survey conducted for Bulgarian National Television, around 25% of Bulgarians would vote for GERB if the elections were held in early August. The survey indicates that the real contest will be for the second, third, and fourth positions.

Under the current projections, GERB is expected to secure 25.2% of the vote. "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) would receive 15.2%, followed closely by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) at 14.5% and "Revival" (Vazrazhdane) at 14.2%. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) would capture 7.3%, while "There Is Such a People" (TISP) would get 6.2%.

Gallup noted that determining the precise order of second, third, and fourth place remains challenging. The uncertainty is compounded by shifts within various political formations and ongoing fragmentation, particularly within the DPS. Sociologists pointed out that a direct question about preferences between Ahmed Dogan's and Delyan Peevski's factions showed nearly unanimous support for Dogan. However, they cautioned that pragmatic factors and hidden votes might affect the final outcomes, which are hard to capture in surveys.

The BSP is projected to remain in fifth place, with unclear implications of internal divisions and external consolidation on its performance. The survey also indicates that the new left alliance is unlikely to significantly influence the results.

In a competitive position are "Greatness" (Velichie) at 3.6% and "Sword" (Mech) at 3.4%. The exact impact of these parties remains uncertain as they navigate their respective challenges. A direct question suggests that Ivelin Mihailov has higher potential than Nikolay Markov.

As of early August, 28.4% of respondents expressed certainty about voting in the National Assembly elections. Additionally, 2.5% of voters indicated they would vote "I do not support anyone." The survey's timing and the complexities of the electoral landscape contribute to its snapshot nature rather than serving as a definitive forecast.

The Gallup International Balkan survey, which involved 802 adult Bulgarians in a representative sample, was conducted through face-to-face interviews with tablets from August 1 to 9. This poll provides a current overview rather than predicting final election results.