Ukraine Intensifies Offensive with Drone Strikes on Russian Defense Lines

Ukraine launched drone attacks on two Russian regions, targeting defense lines as its infantry pushed to seize more territory in what is considered the largest offensive against Russia since the war began. Ukrainian troops crossed the Russian border approximately 530 km south of Moscow in a surprise move that Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed was an attempt to strengthen Kyiv's negotiating position ahead of potential peace talks, especially as Russian forces have struggled to make gains elsewhere on the front.

The Russian Defense Ministry reported that air defenses shot down 12 drones over Kursk Oblast, one over Belgorod, and another over Voronezh. Authorities in Kursk and Belgorod have issued air raid warnings. The situation on the ground remains contested, with Moscow and Kyiv providing differing accounts of the territories under Ukrainian control. Ukraine claims to hold around 1,000 square kilometers, while Russian officials assert the area under Kyiv's control is significantly smaller.

Fierce fighting has been reported around Kursk as Ukrainian forces attempt to expand their hold near Lgov, Bolshoy Soldatskoe, and Korenevo. However, Russian military bloggers suggest that Moscow has reinforced these areas with additional troops and heavy equipment, successfully repelling several Ukrainian attacks. The fate of the city of Suja, a key transit point for Russian gas to Europe, remains uncertain. Some Russian military bloggers and Ukrainian sources claim the city is under Ukrainian control, though this has not been independently verified, and Russian authorities have yet to comment.

Despite the ongoing conflict, Gazprom has assured that gas transit through Sudzha continues. In 2023, about 14.65 billion cubic meters of gas were transported through this route, accounting for roughly half of Russia's natural gas exports to Europe and around 5% of the continent's total gas consumption. The Ukrainian offensive highlights the effectiveness of small, highly mobile units against the larger Russian army, but it may have left other parts of the front line vulnerable as Ukraine redirected its forces to the Kursk region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized in his evening address that the operation in Kursk was crucial for Ukrainian security, noting that the region had been used by Russia to launch numerous strikes against Ukraine. He called for Russia to be forced into peace negotiations, asserting that Putin's desire to continue the conflict should be curbed.

Meanwhile, the Russian military claimed it was advancing on other parts of the front, though it had to redeploy reserves to counter Ukraine's offensive. In Kursk Oblast, local authorities reported that 121,000 people have been evacuated, with another 59,000 in the process of being moved. In the neighboring Belgorod region, 11,000 people have also been evacuated.

In response to the escalating conflict, the Ukrainian Air Force announced that Russia had launched 38 drones and two ballistic missiles against Ukraine overnight. An air alert was briefly declared across the entire country early in the morning, but it has since been lifted.

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