Collapse Imminent at Pokrovsk? Ukraine's Dire Frontline Situation Amid Controversial Kursk Incursion

The situation in the Pokrovsk direction has reached a critical juncture, with defenses collapsing in several areas largely due to a shortage of personnel. As Russian forces amass for a major offensive in Donbas, Ukrainian attempts to divert resources to an incursion into Kursk Oblast are raising questions about strategic priorities. Meanwhile, local financial institutions are responding to the deteriorating situation by halting operations, reflecting growing concerns about the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ability to maintain control.

Wasting critical equipment as Russia pushes closer to Pokrovsk. Genius moves. https://t.co/i1JW9B4W6s

— Destroyer of Bad Takes (Emeritus) (@_Credible_Hulk) August 6, 2024

What is happening

The situation in the Pokrovsk direction is dire, with defenses in several areas having collapsed and yet to be stabilized, primarily due to a shortage of personnel. Diverting nearly an entire brigade to launch an assault on Kursk Oblast, which seems strategically questionable, appears to be a poor decision.

Russian reserves are present in Kursk Oblast, and their deployment has been monitored since spring. It is unlikely that the Russians will need to shift resources from Donetsk Oblast. While additional reserves might be brought in from Bryansk or Belgorod Oblast, this is expected to have little impact on Donbas.

The incursion on Kursk is met with skepticism. Although incursions into Russia are not inherently opposed, they must serve a strategic purpose. There is concern that this attack could be a reckless move, leading to unnecessary losses, especially when those forces might be better utilized to stabilize the front in Pokrovsk.

Recent developments suggest a gradual advance by Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction. The eventual collapse of the Pokrovsk front seems imminent, and Ukrainian financial institutions are responding accordingly. A Raiffeisen Bank branch in Pokrovsk will halt operations on August 8, and there are considerations to shut down ATMs.

Similarly, in nearby Mirnograd, PUMB Bank ATMs will cease operations on August 7. These moves reflect a lack of confidence in the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ability to maintain control of the city. The recent lack of notable success by the Ukrainian forces has led to doubts about their capability to hold these strategic locations.

Gerasimov arrived at the headquarters of the Russian Center group of forces for the third time in a month.

It is located in the Pokrovsk direction.
Some Russian Z-correspondents say that this section of the front may become the direction of the main counterattack of the Russian… pic.twitter.com/MCfJlc35IF

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 6, 2024

Pokrovsk direction

The situation on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka road is currently under the control of Ukrainian forces. Ruslan Muzychuk, spokesperson for the National Guard of Ukraine, confirmed during the national telethon "United News" that one of the primary objectives is to cut or establish fire control over this critical route. "Despite efforts by the enemy to gain control, the Defence Forces are actively working to prevent this and to stop advances in other areas", stated Muzychuk.

In the past 24 hours, 133 combat engagements were recorded along the entire frontline, with nearly a third occurring in the Pokrovsk sector, as previously reported by Ukrinform.

Russian forces have been amassing near Pokrovsk, setting up for a major offensive in the Donbas region. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political analyst from the "Information Resistance" group, highlighted on Espreso.TV that the largest concentration of Russian troops is currently near Pokrovsk. He noted that Novohrodivka and Grodivka are significant obstacles in the Russian push towards Pokrovske and Mirnohrad.

Kovalenko elaborated that the Russian forces include units from the "Center" group, which were redeployed in October 2023. This group comprises the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies, the 90th Tank Division, and support from the "South" group. The largest troop concentration involves two converging Russian force groups. Their movements extend beyond the T-05-11 route towards Novohrodivka.

The analyst also mentioned that the Russian forces aim to hold strategic positions and reach the left bank of the Vovcha River, though they have struggled to achieve this goal for some time. This maneuver is intended to facilitate further offensives towards Vozdvyzhenka and eventually along route 05-04, setting the stage for advances towards Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad. In the short term, the focus is on improving conditions for an offensive in the city of Toretsk and the surrounding area.

On August 6, Serhii Zghuretz, director of Defense Express, reported that Russian forces are working to encircle the Toretsk region, prompting a call for reinforcement of Ukrainian troops. He noted that the Russian military is targeting strategic mounds in Donbas, which are crucial for their ongoing offensive efforts.

Kursk incursion

Russia accused Ukraine on Tuesday of launching an attack on its southern border and reported that it had deployed reserves to counter the assault, which involved hundreds of Ukrainian fighters supported by tanks, Reuters reported. Following a statement from a regional governor claiming the attackers had been repelled, the Russian defense ministry indicated that fighting was ongoing.

The Russian statement detailed that troops guarding the border, along with units from the FSB (Federal Security Service), were engaged in repelling the attacks and targeting Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region. It also noted that Russian warplanes were being used to strike Ukrainian armored vehicles while reserves were being moved into the combat area.

Ukraine's general staff, in its regular update on Tuesday, mentioned Russian strikes on border villages but did not report any Ukrainian offensive operations at the border. Russian regions near the border have faced frequent Ukrainian shelling during the conflict, along with occasional incursions by anti-Kremlin Russian volunteers supporting Ukraine.

Moscow claimed that up to 300 Ukrainian fighters, backed by tanks, were involved in the attack on Russian border units in Nikolayevo-Daryino and Oleshnya, settlements in Russia's Kursk region. However, Reuters could not independently verify these battlefield reports.

Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of the Kursk region, described the situation at the border as "difficult" despite the reported repulsion of the Ukrainian attack by Russian soldiers and FSB forces. Smirnov's social media updates reported that two Russian civilians had been killed—one by shelling and the other by a drone—while 18 others were injured.

Russian media quoted the FSB as describing the incident as an armed "provocation" by Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s main military efforts remain focused on pushing back Russian forces who control nearly 20% of its territory, with recent operations making gradual gains over the past six months. Ukrainian attacks within Russia have largely involved shelling of border areas and drone strikes on infrastructure such as oil refineries and fuel depots.

On the same day, a Russian missile strike on Kharkiv, a city in northeastern Ukraine, damaged a medical clinic and resulted in injuries to at least five people, according to the governor of the Kharkiv region.

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