Bulgaria: Pre-Election Survey Shows Over 10% Gap Between the First and Second Positions

Politics | June 7, 2024, Friday // 09:32|  views


A Gallup International Balkan survey conducted for the Bulgarian National Radio provides insights into voter sentiment just two days before the upcoming elections in Bulgaria. The survey sampled 1,003 adult Bulgarians through face-to-face interviews with tablets from May 29 to June 4. While it cannot definitively predict election outcomes, it offers a snapshot before the final days, according to sociologists.

At the beginning of June, 40.2% of respondents expressed certainty in voting for the National Assembly, while 3.5% stated they would not support any party. For the European elections, declarative activity is expected to be lower at 37.7%, with 3.1% intending to abstain from voting for any candidate.

Based on respondents' declarations, if mirrored in the broader electorate, the shares of votes for parties and coalitions would be as follows: GERB at 25.9%, WCC-DB at 15.7%, "Revival" at 15.5%, and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) at 15.3%. However, it remains uncertain who would actually secure second and third place. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is projected to receive 8% of the vote, with "There Is Such a People" (TISP) at 6.1%.

"Solidary Bulgaria" at 3.1% and "Blue Bulgaria" at 2.8% are in a relatively strong position to challenge the parliamentary threshold. The fate of "Greatness" remains uncertain at 1.7%, while VMRO, "Bulgarian Rise," and "Levitsata" are vying for percentages close to or below 1%.

The European Parliament projections closely mirror those for the National Assembly elections, with slight variations. GERB-SDS is expected to receive 25.7% of the votes, followed by WCC-DB at 15.9%, "Revival" at 15.4%, and DPS at 14.9%. BSP is anticipated to garner 7.9% of the vote, while TISP is on the brink of reaching the representation barrier with 5.9%.

"Solidary Bulgaria" and "Blue Bulgaria" trail behind with 3% and 2.6%, respectively. However, formations like those associated with Vasil Bozhkov and Radostin Vassilev, along with the "Green Movement" and Ivan Geshev's formation, are seen as having potential to aim for representation, according to Gallup analysts.

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Tags: elections, Bulgaria, vote, party


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