Survey Reveals GERB's Lead in Bulgarian Elections, Tight Race for Second Place

In the latest sociological study conducted by the "Trend" agency and commissioned by "24 Chasa" media, insights into the potential outcome of Bulgaria's National Assembly elections have emerged. The survey, conducted between May 11 and 18, 2024, involved direct semi-standardized face-to-face interviews with 1003 individuals aged 18 and above.

According to the findings, if elections were held today, the GERB party would secure a significant lead, commanding over 10% more of the voters than the second-place party. Behind GERB, a trio of political entities - "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB), the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), and "Revival" - are in a tight race, each garnering almost identical levels of support, with WCC-DB leading at 15.4%, followed closely by DPS at 14.9%, and Revival at 14.8%.

However, sociologists emphasize that the battle for second, third, and fourth place is far from settled and will likely be influenced by the remaining days of the campaign.

Projections for voter turnout suggest a figure similar to that of the last parliamentary elections, with approximately 48% of eligible Bulgarians expected to cast their votes on June 9, translating to roughly between 2.5 million and 2.7 million voters. The anticipated turnout for the European elections is slightly lower, with a 3% decrease.

Despite the shifting political landscape, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) maintains its position as the fifth-largest party, holding 8.5% of the voters' support, followed by "There Is Such a People" (TISP) with 5.5%.

Several parties remain below the parliamentary representation threshold, including Solidary Bulgaria (2.4%), Blue Bulgaria (1.8%), "Levitsata" (1.4%), Bulgarian Rise (1.2%), and VMRO (1.1%). Additionally, over 5% of respondents indicated that they do not support any party, although this result does not contribute to the distribution.

The study also highlights the consistency in voter preferences between national and European Parliament elections, with slight variations in expected outcomes. While WCC-DB and Revival are projected to perform slightly better in the European elections, the BSP's performance is anticipated to be weaker compared to the national vote.

Evelina Slavkova, a sociologist from "Trend," noted that the parliamentary elections typically influence voter turnout in European elections, with approximately 20% of voters making their decisions in the final week leading up to the elections. As the campaign enters its final stretch, political parties are expected to intensify their efforts to secure voter support, particularly in the last two weeks preceding the elections.