Is a 'Korean Scenario' in Ukraine Possible?

A Belgian reserve colonel, Roger Housen, has issued a stark warning regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, suggesting that it may be heading towards a "Korean scenario." Housen's assessment, reported in local media and BTA, comes in response to recent remarks by British General Richard Barrons, who suggested that Russia could emerge victorious in the war this year.

Contrary to Barrons' assessment, Housen predicts a prolonged stalemate, with the conflict likely to reach a point of frozen hostility rather than a clear victory for any side. He believes that for Russia to secure a decisive win, it would need to install a puppet government in Ukraine, an outcome he deems unlikely in the near future.

According to Housen, achieving victory for Russia would require a significant numerical advantage over Ukrainian forces, which is currently lacking. While Russian troops may outnumber Ukrainian fighters, the disparity in artillery and aviation capabilities narrows the gap. Housen estimates that Russia would need an additional 1.25 million frontline soldiers to tip the balance decisively in its favor.

Even if Russia were to prevail militarily, Housen argues that maintaining control over captured territories would be unsustainable due to widespread hostility among the Ukrainian population. The logistical challenge of maintaining a large occupying force would strain Russia's resources and economy, making a prolonged occupation untenable.

Instead, Housen suggests that Russia may seek to consolidate control over eastern Ukrainian regions such as Donetsk and Luhansk, declaring victory to its domestic audience while avoiding the burdens of a full-scale occupation. Such a scenario would likely lead to negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, with international dynamics playing a crucial role in shaping the outcome.

Drawing parallels to the decades-long conflict between North and South Korea, Housen highlights the potential for protracted hostilities despite formal ceasefires. With no clear end in sight, the situation in Ukraine remains precarious, with geopolitical complexities complicating efforts to reach a lasting resolution.

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