Meanwhile, according to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian occupation forces are anticipated to initiate a large-scale offensive in Ukraine during the late spring or summer period, with a focus on the western part of the Donetsk region. The report suggests that Russian troops aim to exploit the gradual but steady progress of their forces in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian authorities have issued warnings regarding the concentration of Russian personnel in various strategic areas, including the Kharkiv-Luhansk direction, near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region. ISW's assessment indicates that due to limited resources and planning constraints, Russia is likely to conduct a coordinated large-scale offensive operation in only one operational direction.
The report highlights a significant development on March 30, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) successfully repelled a battalion-sized mechanized attack by Russian forces near Avdeyevka. This marked the first instance since late October 2023 that Ukrainian forces thwarted the occupiers' campaign to seize control of the city. Geolocation imagery released on March 31 revealed extensive destruction of Russian armored vehicles and tanks northwest of Tonenkoe, indicating the effectiveness of Ukrainian resistance. During the attack, Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles (IPVs), preventing a breakthrough in the Ukrainian defense line.
The ISW report underscores the magnitude of the Russian mechanized assault on March 30, signaling a significant escalation in hostilities. Furthermore, on the night of March 30-31, Russia initiated a fresh wave of missile and drone strikes, primarily targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. These attacks exploit delays in U.S. security assistance, which have weakened Ukraine's air defenses and allowed Russia to inflict considerable damage on the Ukrainian energy grid.
Last night, the Ukrainian army announced today that two Russian Shahed drones aimed at Ukraine were successfully shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force, as reported by Reuters.
In its Facebook statement, the General Staff provided minimal details about the attack, leaving uncertainty about whether the third drone, which evaded interception, reached its intended target, according to BTA.
Following a series of attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure launched by Russia over a week ago, the night was relatively calm for Ukraine. On March 22, Russian troops conducted a significant strike on grid facilities, resulting in extensive damage and subsequent power outages. Throughout the past week, Moscow continued its assault on thermal and hydroelectric plants.
