Assessing the Legacy of Bulgaria's "Denkov" Cabinet: Achievements, Failures, and What Comes Next

Nikolai Denkov @Council of Ministers

After nine months of governing the country in turbulent times and an uncertain "assembly", the "Denkov" cabinet went down in history unanimously - all 216 deputies in the plenary hall voted for the resignation of the prime minister, submitted on Tuesday. There was not a single vote against or abstention. This happened after more than two hours of heated debates, in which only the people's representatives from GERB and DPS did not participate, but passed.

The opposition supported the resignation of the government with the argument that it should have happened 9 months ago, and the rulers - with the promise made exactly that long ago. During the debates, the WCC-DB leaders concluded that the best news was that they had no alternative in the face of "Vazrazhdane", “There Is Such a People” and BSP, which demanded elections, not rotation.

How it all started

The Bulgarian parliament elected a regular cabinet led by Prime Minister Academician Nikolai Denkov on June 6, 2023, under the mandate of "We Continuing the Change - Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB). On the same day, Prime Minister Denkov and his ministers assumed their roles. This cabinet, described as a "rotational cabinet," was established with a timeframe of nine months. According to the plan, Prime Minister Denkov would step down after this period, and Deputy Prime Minister Mariya Gabriel (GERB), who also serves as the Minister of Foreign Affairs within the 9 months of the “Denkov” cabinet, would assume the role of Prime Minister.

Top priorities

The present administration's primary foreign policy objectives revolve around securing Bulgaria's full membership in the Schengen area and its accession to the Eurozone.

On December 30, 2023, the European Council unanimously approved a decision, via written procedure, regarding the inclusion of Romania and Bulgaria into the Schengen area. This decision entails the elimination of border checks at the air and sea boundaries between Bulgaria, Romania, and the other Schengen member states, effective from March 31, 2024. While hailed as a triumph by the government, some opposition factions perceive the limited scope of Bulgaria's accession—specifically restricted to air and sea borders—as a policy setback.

The current administration has outlined January 1, 2025, as the new target date for Bulgaria's integration into the Eurozone. Prime Minister Denkov has asserted that the successful execution of the 2021 budget is a significant stride towards adopting the euro and embracing the European lifestyle.

International visits

On November 24, 2023, he traveled to Austria for a meeting with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer. Key topics of discussion included Bulgaria's forthcoming accession to the Schengen Area.

On February 8 of the current year, Denkov undertook a one-day visit to the Netherlands, where he held talks with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. The conversation emphasized Bulgaria's full integration into the Schengen Area, as well as its aspirations to join the Eurozone and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Similarly, on February 21 of this year, Denkov met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Discussions at the Elysée Palace encompassed Bulgaria's integration goals, geopolitical challenges, ongoing support for Ukraine in the aftermath of the conflict's initiation, and the strategic priorities of the European Union.

Throughout the tenure of the current government, Bulgaria hosted visits from various political dignitaries, including Lord David Cameron, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Great Britain, the European Commissioner for Justice Didier Reynders, and the opposition leader in Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

Important visits to Bulgaria

On July 6, 2023, just one month after the new cabinet took office, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, paid a one-day visit to Sofia. During his visit, he held discussions at the Council of Ministers with Prime Minister Academician Nikolai Denkov and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mariya Gabriel. Zelensky also engaged with leaders of parliamentary groups who had proposed a declaration supporting Ukraine's NATO membership. Prime Minister Denkov and President Zelensky signed a joint declaration on Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration, while the energy ministers from both countries signed a memorandum of cooperation in the energy sector.

On February 26, 2024, Prime Minister Denkov traveled to Kyiv, where he met with President Zelensky and reaffirmed Bulgaria's backing for Ukraine. He also held talks with the country's Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, and together they signed a joint statement underscoring the amicable relations between Bulgaria and Ukraine, as well as the solidarity and mutual aid shared between their peoples. The statement also highlighted Bulgaria's significant role in enhancing Ukraine's defense capabilities.

Domestic policies

In December, revisions to Bulgaria's Constitution were ratified, marking a pivotal moment in the nation's trajectory towards becoming a European state governed by the principles of the rule of law. These amendments, endorsed by the legislative body, underscore Bulgaria's commitment to upholding European standards for judicial independence and prosecutorial accountability. Key reforms include the division of the High Judicial Council into two distinct entities—the Council of Judges and the Council of Prosecutors—aimed at enhancing transparency and oversight within the judiciary.

Furthermore, alterations to the process of appointing caretaker governments aim to streamline governance procedures and prevent disruptions during electoral cycles. Notably, the National Assembly will remain operational throughout elections, mitigating potential administrative gaps. Additionally, citizens will now have recourse to appeal individual cases to the Constitutional Court through intermediary courts—a significant expansion of legal access.

The government's agenda for the mandate period emphasizes several strategic priorities, including bolstering fiscal stability, fostering innovation through increased investment, and combating corruption inherited from previous administrations. Infrastructure development initiatives seek to enhance the business environment and support cultural and sporting activities. Concurrently, efforts to elevate educational standards through initiatives such as providing free textbooks and improving teaching quality underscore a commitment to human capital development.

Militarily, modernization efforts are underway to strengthen Bulgaria's armed forces and bolster NATO's Eastern flank defense capabilities. Despite these ambitious reform endeavors, the government's tenure has been punctuated by sporadic protests from various sectors, including trade unions, energy workers, miners, and agricultural producers, voicing concerns and pressing for sector-specific solutions.

Calls for resignations

On November 3, Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov formally requested President Rumen Radev to dismiss Plamen Tonchev, the chairman of the State Agency “National Security” (SANS). Denkov, during a briefing at the Council of Ministers, cited a loss of confidence in Tonchev's leadership and emphasized the need for cohesive coordination among government agencies.

Denkov's request extended to the removal of Denyo Denev, the deputy chairman of SANS, whose tenure was also subject to scrutiny following his involvement in a controversial report issued by the agency on October 26. Denkov criticized the report, alleging it contained unsubstantiated and manipulative claims aimed at disrupting the integrity of the electoral process, particularly the use of voting machines during the first round of elections.

Subsequently, in November, the WCC-DB party called for the resignation of Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov in the aftermath of a protest involving football fans. The party attributed the protest's escalation outside the "Vasil Levski" National Stadium during a match between Bulgaria and Hungary to Stoyanov's handling of the situation. Despite mounting pressure, Stoyanov declined to step down, asserting that his prompt response had effectively averted any potential casualties.

What is the assessment of the ministers

At yesterday’s cabinet meeting, resigned Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov assured that the government will persist in addressing the priorities it has outlined until the election of a new Council of Ministers.

Following the submitted resignations, the majority of ministers appraised their performance positively over the past nine months. Despite criticisms from GERB leader Boyko Borissov towards four ministers, they expressed disagreement with his assessments.

During his first meeting as Prime Minister in resignation, Nikolai Denkov asserted that the government had delivered on its promises, emphasizing the fulfillment of their commitment by voluntarily stepping down after nine months in office. Denkov framed this decision as a demonstration of fostering a new culture of European party relations.

Asen Vassilev, the Minister of Finance, affirmed that all measures outlined in the government's program had been implemented during the preceding nine months. He refrained from directly responding to Borisov's criticisms, focusing instead on his ministry's accomplishments and adherence to institutional protocols.

Todor Tagarev, the former Minister of Defense, dismissed criticisms concerning military equipment and personnel matters as trivial, maintaining confidence in his performance despite ongoing scrutiny.

Dimitar Iliev, the Minister of Sports, echoed similar sentiments, asserting confidence in the government's collective achievements and commitment to continued diligence until the formation of a new cabinet.

Bogdan Bogdanov, the Minister of Economy and Industry, expressed uncertainty regarding his evaluation, awaiting further clarification from relevant authorities.

Milena Stoycheva, the Minister of Innovation and Growth, defended her extensive travel schedule as essential for promoting Bulgaria's interests and attracting investment opportunities.

Georgi Gvozdeikov, the Minister of Transport, emphasized the continuity of his responsibilities and the adherence to constitutional procedures amidst the ongoing transition process.

Kiril Vatev, the Minister of Agriculture, underscored the importance of maintaining focus and dedication to duty despite uncertainties surrounding potential rotations in the cabinet.

Several ministers declined to speculate on their future involvement in the cabinet post-rotation, opting to withhold comments until further developments unfold.

What’s next

President Rumen Radev is set to announce the schedule for conducting consultations with the parliamentary groups, a crucial step that will determine the timeframe for negotiations between GERB and WCC-DB, contingent upon the pace of the constitutional process for electing a new government.

Radev highlighted the prevailing confusion among coalition partners, evident in their reactions to the voted resignation of the cabinet. He suggested that the current atmosphere reflects uncertainty regarding the intentions of the resigned coalition parties, speculating whether they are engaged in political brinkmanship, strategizing for an extension of joint governance, or mobilizing their voter base for potential new elections.

Following the unanimous acceptance of the government's resignation in parliament, Radev is scheduled to hold meetings with all parties represented in the legislature. Subsequently, he will assign a mandate to GERB as the largest parliamentary group, affording them a week to propose a cabinet.

According to the established procedure, in the event of failure, WCC-DB will receive a mandate and a week to form a government. If unsuccessful, the president retains the prerogative to select the recipient of the final mandate, without a specified deadline for presenting a government composition.

Boyko Borissov issued strong criticism against WCC-DB for what he deemed as hastily voting on the resignation of the Denkov cabinet. He accused them of disrupting negotiations and steering the country towards imminent elections. Although expressing skepticism about the outcome, Borissov did not rule out the continuation of non-coalition talks.

Overall assessment

The "Denkov" cabinet made significant progress towards Bulgaria's European integration goals, particularly in pursuing Schengen area membership and Eurozone accession. Its proactive foreign policy, evidenced by high-level diplomatic engagements, bolstered Bulgaria's standing on the international stage. Domestically, the cabinet implemented constitutional reforms to strengthen judicial independence and accountability, alongside efforts to address sector-specific challenges.

However, criticism arose over delays in achieving Eurozone membership and handling protests. Despite its achievements, the cabinet's legacy is marred by unresolved challenges and criticisms. The unanimous resignation reflects both acknowledgment of these challenges and a commitment to democratic principles, setting the stage for potential political realignments in Bulgaria.

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