Inflation on the Rise: Bulgarian Consumers Brace for Impact!

Consumer sentiment in Bulgaria is reflecting concerns about rising inflation. Recent data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) reveals that consumers believe there has been a notable increase in consumer prices over the last year, and their expectations for inflation in the coming year are strengthening. The balance indicator has risen by 3.8 points, from 9.4 to 13.2, indicating growing inflation concerns.

Comparing this data with figures from July, it is clear that consumers have maintained the perception that prices have risen in the past 12 months, albeit at a slower rate than the estimates recorded in April. However, their inflation expectations for the next year have grown, hinting at mounting concerns among the population.

In October 2023, the general indicator of consumer confidence increased by 3.3 points compared to July. The rise was seen both in urban and rural areas, with a 0.5-point increase for urban consumers and a significant 9.8-point increase for those in rural areas. These findings show that consumer confidence is on the rise, which is a positive sign for the Bulgarian economy.

Regarding unemployment expectations over the next year, pessimism is growing as both urban and rural populations shift towards more negative forecasts. However, back in July, unemployment predictions had shifted towards more moderate views.

Despite concerns about rising inflation, consumers' opinions about changes in the financial situation of their households over the past year and their expectations for the next year remain positive compared to previous surveys. Additionally, consumers believe there has been some positive change in the country's general economic situation over the past year, reflected in a balance indicator increase of 6.9 points.

While residents in rural areas anticipate this trend continuing in the next year, those in urban areas are slightly more negative compared to three months earlier. The latest survey also indicated a minor decline in the overall assessment of the current situation for spending on durable goods, but consumers still have favorable intentions to make such expenditures over the next year.

Bulgaria's economic landscape is experiencing shifts in consumer sentiment, reflecting concerns about inflation and economic expectations in the coming year.

*The NSI survey is part of the European Union's Harmonized Program for Business Trend Monitoring and Consumer Monitoring and is representative of the population aged 18 and over. The object of the research is people aged 18 and over, the selection method - random, nested and proportional to the population by region, including rural/urban population (154 nests with 8 individuals per nest). The survey method is a face-to-face interview.

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