Day 603 of the Invasion of Ukraine: The Kremlin Desperately Wants but Cannot Take Over Avdiivka

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Day 603 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

• The Kremlin desperately wants but cannot take over Avdiivka
• ISW: Marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine crossed the Dnieper, took positions in two villages
• A Ukrainian court handed down the first sentences for the Euromaidan deaths
• A journalist from Radio Free Europe has been detained in Russia
• The US lends 60 billion dollars to Ukraine and 10 billion to Israel
• Ukraine is in second place in the number of its citizens killed in the attack of "Hamas”

The Kremlin desperately wants but cannot take over Avdiivka

Since October 9, the Russian armed forces have launched a massive attack in the Avdiivka region, which has been under Ukrainian control for years. Russian pro-military channels initially announced the intention to encircle Avdiivka, but then reported difficulties. According to the assessments of the Ukrainian authorities and OSINT researchers, the Russians suffered heavy losses in equipment and manpower. Since October 14, their activity has significantly decreased, writes "Важные истории".

The head of the Avdiivka administration called the advance on the city the biggest since 2014, and British intelligence called it the most significant Russian operation in Ukraine since the beginning of 2023. Putin and Shoigu say the army was not advancing, but conducted "active defense".

"It is unrealistic to capture Avdiivka with the forces allocated there. This is the task of two divisions, not two brigades," explained military analyst and reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Roman Svitan.

And he added that the city is well defended: half of the territory is occupied by a Soviet coke (the fuel) plant, and Avdiivka itself is located at a height that can only be reached through open terrain the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) can fire on. The fields through which the road passes are heavily mined by Ukraine. In addition, the fortified area is covered by AFU batteries just to the west, in the area of the Karlov Reservoir.

"The Russians near Avdiivka encountered a wall of artillery fire. As soon as they stepped into the open field, they were immediately shelled by GRADs and long-range artillery with 155-millimeter and cluster ammunition - all of this ammunition the AFU has in sufficient quantities," says Svitan.

At the same time, the Russian command cannot send more military personnel there: they are involved in the fighting along the entire line of contact, and it is impossible to withdraw them from there.

At the start of the offensive from Krasnogorovka in the northwest and the village of Vodyanoe in the southwest, the Russian armed forces acted in a surprisingly coordinated manner, analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote. Perhaps for the first time in a full-scale war, the Russian army fought "according to the rules". The troops demonstrated "clear cooperation" between headquarters, assault groups, air reconnaissance and artillery units, conducted extensive artillery training on the battlefield and used electronic warfare systems, analysts noted.

After that, however, the pace of the Russian army's advance slowed down, military expert Yuriy Fyodorov points out. This is due to the fact that the distance of about 20 kilometers that they have to travel is too great, and "there is no strength for it".

In his estimation, attacking a well-fortified area without superiority and advantage in artillery is an extremely difficult task, accompanied by heavy losses.

The area of Avdiivka is even better protected than Bakhmut, which is located in a lowland, noted Roman Svitan. When the Russians attacked Bakhmut, they surrounded it "on the heights". Now the Ukrainian armed forces are doing the same to liberate the city, and have effectively pushed the Russians out of there - and it's much easier to work from the heights, the expert said.

According to Fyodorov, despite the difficulties and losses, the Russian military managed to approach the Avdiivka fortification from the south and slightly expand the area of hostilities, but this did not bring them closer to capturing the city. Other experts also believe that the attack was a failure and that the Russian losses in equipment and manpower were severe - far greater than those of the Ukrainian armed forces.

According to an assessment of the Tavria Military Academy defense group, the Russian military lost over 300 units of military equipment and 3,000 people between October 9 and 14. At the same time, OSINT analyst Tatarigami_UA identified at least 45 units of Russian armored vehicles destroyed, damaged, or abandoned in the Avdiivka area.

A source close to the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces commented that the actions of the Russians near Avdiivka and Kupiansk were not an offensive, but an attempt to distract the attention of the Ukrainians and weaken the concentration of their troops on other sections of the front. He believes that Russia does not have a great advantage in strength and technology, which is why Russian generals are afraid to attack.

Analysts also suggested that the attempted attack near Avdiivka was a diversionary maneuver and should be seen in the context of the overall plan on the front. Over the past month, the Russian armed forces have attacked simultaneously in three or four directions. A military expert, who preferred to remain anonymous, noted that these attacks were likely planned by Russian commanders in general agreement. But whether the overall plan has succeeded is too early to judge.

"On the local level - no. But it could be the fault of operational or tactical commanders on the ground. In a strategic sense, they are acting correctly at this stage of the war. We will see if the AFU has reserves left and if, despite the pressure, they will still manage to collect some second-echelon troops for a breakthrough in the Tokmak area," he says.

In addition, analysts point to the political goal of the attack: in case Avdiivka is surrounded, to force Ukraine to make concessions and withdraw its military, as well as to demonstrate military successes to the Russian public and authorities.

"Otherwise, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, and the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, may become scapegoats. After all, a year has passed, and Russia has not had any military successes," says Yuri Fedorov.

A source close to the General Staff of the Russian Army believes that neither side is ready to attack now.

"This war showed that armored vehicles can't do anything," he says.

The Russian generals do not want to "repeat the experience of the AFU when the losses turned out to be heavy and led only to tactical changes on the front without any breakthroughs." In turn, four to six vacant brigades remained in the Ukrainian army, and they are urgently forming new ones to compensate for the losses. According to him, this is difficult because "they were late in mobilizing" and there may be up to three million able-bodied men outside the country who have not returned since the beginning of the war.

"The Kremlin wants the war to end on the left bank of the Dnieper with the capture of the left bank of Ukraine and the Black Sea coast. There they realize that it is impossible to draw the border ‘where we are’. But they cannot attack, because of the new means for defeat, which Ukraine receives. Under these circumstances, the war could last for years," the source explains.

Reserve Colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Roman Svitan also noted that for an offensive along the entire Eastern Front, which is more than 1,200 km, Russia needs at least 1.2 million soldiers - three times more than now.

"The Russian armed forces can only successfully advance in the direction of Luhansk because of the short distance and military supplies nearby. From Kupiansk to the Russian border is 20 kilometers. That means it's a 20-minute drive. But on some big distances, yes say in the region of Kherson, Nova Kakhovka and Tokmak, even Vuhledar, this is simply impossible, because the logistics supply chain is hundreds of kilometers long, and in a territory under fire. It is possible to defend, but it is impossible to attack." the analyst said.

ISW: Marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine crossed the Dnieper, took positions in two villages

Probably on October 17 and 18, parts of two brigades of marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) crossed the Dnieper River and took up positions on the left bank of the Kherson region. Geolocation maps in a new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) show this. They show that Ukrainian fighters have advanced north from Peschanivka (14 km east of the city of Kherson and 3 km from the Dnieper River) and to Poima (11 km east of the city of Kherson and 4 km from the Dnieper River).

According to Russian media, two assault groups of the AFU landed on the eastern bank of the Dnieper and broke through the defenses of the occupation troops, temporarily occupying the entire Poima and positions on the northern outskirts of Peschanivka. As of October 18, the invaders control only the southern part of Peschanovka, ISW said.

It is noted that the military leadership of the Russian Federation is concerned about the ability of the troops to repel a potential Ukrainian offensive operation across the Dnieper. This is due to the state of the Russian group of troops on the left bank. In recent months, the Russian command has attracted a relatively larger number of elite units from the Kherson direction to support defensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia region.

There is growing concern among the Russian military that this operation may be part of a larger plan. According to them, Ukraine wants to "expand the bridgehead" for a larger offensive.

"Notably, mainstream and reliable Russian sources discuss Ukrainian actions on the east bank as larger than previously documented tactical incursions by Ukrainian forces across the major river," the report said.

The Russian military Telegram channel “Rybar” also commented on the events on the left bank. Last night, analysts close to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow claimed that the militants had been completely destroyed. This morning, however, they launched a rather different version, namely that the Russian military prevented the AFU from transferring additional units across the Dnieper and that they inflicted serious losses on them.

"In the Kherson direction, the Russian armed forces yesterday resisted the attempt of the Ukrainian armed forces to strengthen their presence on our bank of the Dnieper in the area of the settlements of Peschanovka and Podstepnoe. The enemy, who advanced towards the villages, was covered by artillery fire and pressed to the Dnieper in the area of the railway bridge. The losses of the Ukrainian armed forces amounted to more than 60 people on our shore alone. To strike the enemy on the other side of the river, the Iskander tactical missile system was used. However, the Ukrainians are increasing their efforts, trying skillfully to exploit our weaknesses," wrote Russian military analysts.

A Ukrainian court handed down the first sentences for the Euromaidan deaths

A Ukrainian court handed down the first verdicts against police officers involved in the fatal shooting of nearly 50 demonstrators during pro-Western protests on the Maidan in Kyiv in 2014, DPA reported.

A commander of the "Berkut" special police force was sentenced to life in prison, Ukrainian media reported. Two police officers were sentenced to 15 years in prison each.

The three men were sentenced in absentia because they were handed over to pro-Russian separatists in a prisoner exchange in 2019.

Two other defendants charged in connection with the fatal shooting were acquitted. They returned to Kyiv voluntarily.

The court's decision has not yet entered into force.

In the winter of 2013/2014, for nearly three months, tens of thousands of people participated in demonstrations in Kyiv's Maidan (also known by its official name, Independence Square) against pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych.

The protests turned violent, and the state retaliated with force - dozens of demonstrators and 17 police officers died.

After Yanukovych fell from power in February 2014, Russia occupied and annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, DPA recalls.

A journalist from Radio Free Europe has been detained in Russia

Journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, who holds Russian and American citizenship, was arrested in the Russian city of Kazan, her employer Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported.

She is the second American journalist detained in Russia this year after Evan Gershkovich, who worked for the Wall Street Journal and was accused of espionage.

Kurmasheva is accused of not declaring that she is a "foreign agent", for which she is threatened with up to 5 years in prison, according to RFE, which is funded by the US Congress.

The journalist, who usually lives in Prague with her husband and children, was due to travel to Russia for "urgent family reasons" on May 20 and was temporarily arrested on June 2 before her return flight from Kazan, where her Russian passport was also confiscated in addition to her US passport. She was fined for not registering her American passport with the Russian authorities.

According to information from the "Tatar-Inform" agency, Kurmasheva was in a temporary detention center last night.

Radio Free Europe stated that Kurmasheva covered the ethnic minorities in the Russian republics of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, and particularly their efforts to preserve the Tatar language "against the increased pressure of the Russian authorities on the Tatars in recent years".

The US lends 60 billion dollars to Ukraine and 10 billion to Israel

The administration of US President Joe Biden is considering submitting to Congress tomorrow a request to provide additional aid to Ukraine in the amount of 60 billion dollars and 10 billion to Israel, said a well-informed source to Reuters, quoted by BTA.

Many expect Biden to introduce a bill in Congress soon to provide additional funding for Washington's response to the October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, while also looking for a way to continue to help Ukraine push back Russian troops.

On Tuesday, several sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that Biden was considering requesting about 100 billion dollars in additional funding, which would include defense aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, as well as money for efforts to boost security along the border with Mexico, which is under increased migration pressure.

Sen. Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Policy Committee, said he knew nothing about such a 100 billion figure other than what the media reported.

He said at a press conference that he had heard that the government was considering giving 10 billion to Israel.

So far, there is no comment from the governing circles in Washington.

Several sources said yesterday that Biden had not yet settled on a final amount and that its breakdown had not been discussed with Congress.

Under American law, Congress, not the executive branch, controls government spending.

US President Joe Biden will deliver a speech in prime time tonight about the conflict between Israel and Hamas and the war in Ukraine, the White House announced, quoted by the world agencies.

He will speak at 8:00 p.m. EST (00:00 GMT) from the Oval Office, where presidents traditionally address the nation at moments of critical national importance, AFP notes.

"Tomorrow (today) President Biden will address the nation on our response to Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel and Russia's unrelenting inhumane war against Ukraine," said White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

Biden will deliver the speech a day after returning from Israel, where he paid a visit in solidarity after the October 7 attack by Hamas, and as he prepares to ask Congress for a 100 billion dollars package, including money for Ukraine, Israel and the US southern border, which is under increased migrant pressure.

Biden, who is a representative of the Democratic Party, announced yesterday in Tel Aviv that he will address Congress in the coming days with a call for an "unprecedented package to support Israel's defense."

The US legislature has been paralyzed for more than two weeks now due to the absence of a Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Yesterday, for the second time, US congressmen rejected the candidacy of hardline Republican Jim Jordan.

He himself told reporters that he expects his nomination to be put to a new, third vote today, Reuters reported.

Ukraine is in second place in the number of its citizens killed in the attack of "Hamas”

The number of Ukrainians killed in the Hamas attack on Israel has increased to 23 people, Israel's ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodsky announced on “X” on October 18.

Ukraine lost the most citizens than any other nation except the United States, and the number continues to rise, Brodsky noted. In his statement on the first evening after the Hamas invasion of Israel, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that one Ukrainian citizen was believed to have been killed.

Ten days later, during a telephone conversation with Israel's First Lady Michal Herzog, Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska said that 13 Ukrainians were killed in the October 7 attack.

So far, about 450 Ukrainian citizens have been evacuated from Israel. Three days after Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel, a Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman said 150 Ukrainians remaining in Gaza had contacted the embassy and expressed interest in being evacuated.

On October 18, Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevgeny Kornychuk said in a statement on national television that the number of Ukrainians seeking evacuation from the besieged Gaza has increased to 298. He also informed that the next evacuation flight from Israel will take off today, October 19. This flight is the third since the beginning of the conflict, the tickets for it cost about 400 euros, and the embassy is unable to pay for their purchase.

Meanwhile, a Ukrainian woman evacuated from Israel told RFE/RL that she was given the impression that evacuation flights would be provided free of charge by the embassy, only to find out later that she would have to pay hundreds of euros for tickets for herself and for her children. Kornychuk denied that the information that the tickets were free had been announced anywhere officially and added that there was simply not enough money in the budget to pay for all the evacuations.

Two hours before the planned evacuation began on October 14, Israeli authorities revoked the permission for foreigners to use the Rafah border crossing from Gaza to Egypt.

According to Israel's Ministry of Social Welfare, from the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, until the beginning of 2023, 47,000 Ukrainians who did not meet the conditions of the Law of Return traveled to Israel. Of these, only about 15,000 remained in Israel, and the rest left the country.

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