Deterring Russia is the Focus of Bulgaria's New Military Strategy

For the first time since the fall of the communist regime, Bulgaria's National Defense Strategy (NDS) states that Russia is the biggest threat to the country's national security, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

The project strategy was developed by an expert group of the Ministry of Defense under the leadership of Minister Todor Tagarev in coordination with other departments. It is published for a month's discussion on the public consultation portal. The document must be accepted by the government to enter into force. Its time horizon is "until 2033", leaving a loophole to be updated as the security environment changes.

Its appearance at this moment is surprising and should have been preceded by other actions, including changes in the law, reports "Dnevnik".

The current National Defense Strategy was prepared in 2011 during the first administration of GERB and during the second administration of Boyko Borissov's party, it was updated in 2016 with a time horizon of 2020.

Here is a summary of what is described on 23 pages, in which, in practice, no specific years and terms are indicated

The draft document emphasizes that Bulgaria's defense is possible only within the framework of NATO's collective defense and within the framework of the common security and defense policy of the European Union. In view of this, the fulfillment of allied commitments has been described as crucial to the country's defense.

In the draft strategy, deterrence (of Russia) and defense are defined as the main tasks of the Bulgarian armed forces, which is an addition to their previous mission. The rationale for this is that deterrence is a key strategic military objective of NATO under the new Alliance Military Strategy adopted at the 2022 Alliance Summit in Madrid. Especially given the geographical location of Bulgaria and the reality that a large part of NATO's activities to increase the deterrence potential will be implemented on the territory of the allies on the eastern flank, including with the active participation of the host countries, notes minister Tagarev in the reasons for the strategy.

"NATO's deterrence and defense posture is based on an appropriate mix of nuclear, conventional and anti-missile defense capabilities, complemented by space and cyber capabilities," the defense minister said.

An important element in the new defense strategy is the emphasis on the need to adapt the armed forces to the operational needs identified in the NATO defense plans, in order to achieve the new, higher requirements for the national armed forces.

According to the Bulgarian military, the strategic security environment in the long term will be characterized by "acceleration and complication of destabilizing processes, increasingly difficult identification of the origin and scope of risks and threats, increased confrontation and use of armed forces".

In connection with Russia's unprovoked war against Ukraine and the increased global and interconnected risks and threats, the Bulgarian military does not exclude the possibility of encroachment and violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a NATO and EU member state.

"The tendency to increase the confrontation between the leading powers will increase the danger of using armed forces to realize strategic goals in international relations. Regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Russia will maintain its ambitious goals of maintaining military parity with Western countries and asserting it as a great power, which will materialize in the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and NATO," the document says, adding that the danger of global military and nuclear escalation is increasing, with the possibility of accelerating the arms race.

According to the military's analysis, without specifically mentioning Russia, it will continue to use the media for propaganda and disinformation aimed at negatively impacting alliance unity and making the decision-making process difficult. Attempts at internal destabilization of the member countries, lowering of citizens' trust in the institutions and their will to protect the homeland, polarization of society, development of extremism and nationalism and questioning of the significance of NATO and EU membership will continue. Cyber-attacks against the critical infrastructure of EU and NATO countries are expected to continue, combined with other hybrid actions, large-scale disinformation campaigns and attempts to provoke social discontent, acts of terrorism, sabotage and sabotage.

In order to achieve the goals of the National Defense Strategy, defense spending will reach 2% of the gross domestic product as early as in the next state budget for 2024, the draft strategy says, adding that the minimum from now on will be 2% of GDP, and - henceforth they expect military expenditures to rise in line with the accepted commitments from Bulgaria to NATO. At least 20% of defense spending should be for the acquisition of new armaments and equipment.

"The demands on the armed forces' capabilities to build resilience will increase. The comprehensive approach will remain fundamental to strengthening capabilities and enhancing resilience to address hybrid threats, climate change and their consequences, demands on the military's capabilities will increase and the non-military components of the defense," the military assures.

The document also states that the achievement of continuous awareness of the situation, the development of early warning capabilities and anticipatory strategic foresight are fundamental to building the deterrent and defense potential of the Bulgarian armed forces. In this regard, building a reliable Union and national early warning system and automated intelligence sharing is key.

"Successfully countering malicious acts and cyber-attacks will require increasing the capabilities of the armed forces, including for operating with limited use of information technology in a complex electromagnetic environment and in the conditions of an intense struggle for radio-electronic superiority," the new defense strategy notes, adding that more reliance will be placed on artificial intelligence to process and disseminate information.

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