Day 497 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Xi Jinping personally told Putin not to touch Nuclear Weapons

Ukraine | July 5, 2023, Wednesday // 11:01| views

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Day 497 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

Xi Jinping personally told Putin not to touch nuclear weapons
The Institute of War: The VSU counteroffensive resembles the operation to liberate Kherson
Two Russian border Oblasts have been attacked with missiles and drones
Zelensky: There is a danger that Russia will simulate an accident at the Zaporizhzhia NPP
VSU destroyed an entire division of the Russians in Makiivka
Putin is pleased: The Russian economy is performing above expectations
Volodymyr Zelensky is coming to Bulgaria
A Russian fighter jet crashed in the Pacific Ocean

Xi Jinping personally told Putin not to touch nuclear weapons

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has personally warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin not to resort to a nuclear attack in Ukraine. In private talks, Beijing officials say they have persuaded Russia's president to refrain from thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons. That is seen as a signal that China is concerned about the Russian-led war, even as it offers Moscow support, Western and Chinese officials say.

This was claimed by the Financial Times in a publication citing sources who said the warning was issued in March during the Chinese president's unusually long visit to the Russian capital.

For the Chinese, the ability to get Putin to refrain from resorting to such a weapon is central to Beijing's campaign to restore relations with Europe. The Chinese leader has publicly said there are "no limits" to the partnership with Putin, raising doubts about whether China is willing to compromise on its policy of containing nuclear weapons.

The claim of a personal warning to Moscow - as well as at all other levels - of serious consequences in bilateral relations, if this scenario were to occur, gives hope that the Chinese have a deterrent effect.

In addition, Beijing's position against nuclear weapons is included in the so-called "China peace plan" since February this year. The inclusion of text condemning the use of nuclear weapons in the extensive final document from the March meeting was at China's insistence, the Financial Times sources said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi's chief of staff said Wednesday that China's position in the face of a potential nuclear threat from Russia is "important." Andriy Yermak posted a screenshot of the Financial Times article on his Telegram channel, saying: "(This is) an important position of (China) regarding the nuclear threat from the crazy Russian terrorist."

A strike in Ukraine or one of the European countries supporting it would risk turning all of Europe against China, an adviser in Beijing explains. A professor of international relations at Beijing's Renmin University says that "Russia has never received and will never receive Chinese approval for the use of nuclear weapons" and if that happens, "China will further distance itself from Russia."

The three nuclear powers in NATO - the US, Britain and France - have told the Kremlin that if it resorts to tactical nuclear weapons, they will respond with a strike against Russia's forces with conventional means.

However, there is no full guarantee that both the Chinese and the other warnings have achieved a deterrent effect, as according to a quoted Russian analyst: "for Putin, the nuclear weapon is his last guarantee that he will not catastrophically lose the war in Ukraine".

The Institute of War: The VSU counteroffensive resembles the operation to liberate Kherson

The current pace of Ukrainian operations gives no indication that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) is at a dead end and that Ukraine will not be able to regain large territories. This is the main conclusion in the latest report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on the course of hostilities. According to the think tank, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued counteroffensives on at least four sectors of the front on Tuesday and made progress on July 4. At this stage, the counteroffensive is not dynamic, like the Kharkiv counteroffensive operation, but more like the slow but ultimately successful liberation of Kherson, according to the institute's experts.

By all accounts, Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an "asymmetric attrition gradient" that preserves Ukrainian strike power at the cost of a slower pace of territorial gains while gradually depleting Russian strike force and equipment. The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, announced on July 4 that Ukrainian forces are fulfilling their primary task of destroying Russian manpower, equipment, fuel depots, artillery and air defenses, and that "a war of destruction equals a war of miles". Danilov's assessment underscores the prioritization of Ukraine's ongoing campaign to disable Russian manpower and assets over attempts to conduct massive mechanized maneuvers to quickly retake large swaths of territory.

NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Rob Bauer said on July 3 that Ukrainian forces were right to proceed cautiously and avoid heavy casualties in the counteroffensive, and acknowledged that the counteroffensive was difficult because of anti-personnel mines and other obstacles up to 30 kilometers deep in the occupied Russia territory.

The current pace of Ukrainian operations is not an indication of a stalemate or proof that Ukraine cannot regain large territories, ISW emphasizes. Ukrainian forces conducted slow and gradual blockade campaigns against areas of Russian concentration on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and limited ground attacks on the west (right) bank between August and November 2022 before finally forcing a Russian withdrawal from the right bank in mid-November.

The situation in southern Ukraine is different, and the Washington Institute rates the pace as better than that of the Russian winter-spring offensive and slower than the Kharkiv Offensive. "The current Ukrainian counteroffensive is less dramatic and swift than the one that liberated much of Kharkiv Oblast, more successful than the failed Russian winter offensive, and overall most closely resembles the slower but ultimately successful Kherson counteroffensive on its pace and initial progress," analyzed ISW.

Two Russian border Oblasts have been attacked with missiles and drones

The Russian Oblasts of Kursk and Belgorod, bordering Ukraine, were shelled in the early hours of Wednesday, their governors said, quoted by Reuters.

"The attack on the town of Valuyki (the administrative center of the district) lasted for more than an hour," Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on the Telegram messaging app, adding that the attack was carried out by the Ukrainian army. A woman has wounds on her chest.

Gladkov said Russian defense forces shot down three aerial objects, including a drone. Ukrainian forces also fired Grad rockets 12 times, he added. At least eight private houses were damaged.

Roman Starovoit, the governor of Kursk Oblast, north of Belgorod and also bordering Ukraine, said a school and a private house were damaged in a fire in the village of Tyotkino, again without specifying the nature of the attack.

Ukraine almost never publicly takes responsibility for attacks in Russia or on Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine. Both sides deny attacking civilians in the 16-month war that Russia launched against its neighbor in February 2022.

Bombings and attacks on Russian regions bordering Ukraine have occurred almost daily in recent months, with Russian officials blaming either Ukrainian forces or Russian guerrilla units fighting to topple the Kremlin regime.

Zelensky: There is a danger that Russia will simulate an accident at the Zaporizhzhia NPP

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia is the "only source of danger" for Europe's largest nuclear facility, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

In his latest video address, he again warned that Russia was planning to "simulate an attack on the plant", which has been occupied by Russian troops for a year. On Tuesday, Ukraine and Russia accused each other of plotting to attack the plant.

"We have information from our intelligence that the Russian military has placed explosive-like objects on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. They probably need this to simulate an attack on the plant. Or they may have some other scenario. But in any case, the world sees - and cannot help but see - that the only source of danger for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is Russia. And no one else," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian military has placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Perhaps to simulate an attack on the plant. Perhaps they have some other scenario. But in… pic.twitter.com/RWbykc72cL
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 4, 2023

VSU destroyed an entire division of the Russians in Makiivka

A division of the Russian army in the occupied Donetsk region was completely destroyed during an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU), the Strategic Communications Directorate STRATKOM of the Ukrainian army reported. Photos and videos appeared on social networks confirming the strike.

Last night the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted HIMARS strikes on a Russian munitions storage site in occupied Makiivka, right next to the city of Donetsk, which has been under Russian occupation since 2014. pic.twitter.com/KH76i69pwH
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) July 5, 2023

"Ceased to exist," announced the Ukrainian side. The target of the attack was a Russian military warehouse in the town of Makiivka.

"As a result of the effective strike of the units of the VSU, another formation of Russian terrorists in the temporarily occupied Makiivka ceased to exist," said the announcement of STRATCOM. The number of enemy fighters killed was not reported.

According to geolocalized photos and videos, several explosions went off in the occupied Makiivka on Tuesday evening, after which clouds of smoke rose over the city. Footage published by the Russian side shows destroyed window frames and shattered windows of residential buildings in the town as a result of the blast wave.

More footage of the burning oil depot in #Makiivka. pic.twitter.com/4mmauXl2KD
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) July 5, 2023

The destruction of concentrations of enemy weapons, ammunition, fuels, manpower and military equipment is among Kyiv's priorities at the current stage of the counteroffensive of the VSU.

RIA Novosti reported the attack by the Ukrainian army in Makiivka in several broadcasts, claiming that a hospital town was hit and the hospital building in Makiivka was damaged. According to the agency, explosions were registered both in Makiivka and in the regional center of Donetsk.

The leader of the separatists from Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, stated that no fewer than 25 civilians were injured in the attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Makiivka. "Late in the evening, the enemy carried out fierce attacks on residential areas and the hospital complex in the Red Guard district of Makiivka," Pushilin commented on his telegram channel. The separatists have not yet commented on their military losses in the attack, which, according to publications on pro-Russian channels, was carried out with HIMARS.

Putin is pleased: The Russian economy is performing above expectations

President Vladimir Putin said the Russian economy was performing better than expected despite sanctions, after Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin reported to him late Tuesday that gross domestic product growth and inflation were surprisingly positive.

GDP growth may exceed 2% this year and consumer price inflation may not rise above 5% annually, Mishustin told Putin at a meeting in the Kremlin. The International Monetary Fund expects the Russian economy to grow by 0.7% this year.

"Our results, at least for the moment, let's say cautiously, are better than expected, better than predicted," Putin said, according to a transcript on the Kremlin website.

Analysts polled by Reuters at the end of June predicted GDP growth of 1.2% and inflation of 5.7% in 2023.

Russia's economy shrank by 2.1% in 2022 and was under particular pressure last spring when Kyiv's allies imposed broad sanctions on Moscow over its military campaign in Ukraine.

Russian technocrats helped offset some of the blow by reorienting the economy and fueling it with state money, with the finance ministry earlier saying public spending was 26.5 percent higher year-on-year in the first five months of the year.

Putin told his allies in Asia that Moscow would continue to resist Western restrictions and urged them to make mutual payments in rubles or Chinese yuan, ditching international currencies.

On Tuesday, Mishustin told Putin he was confident that, absent force majeure, the economy would perform well.

"Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich (Putin), the country's economy continues to confidently recover despite the sanctions, despite all the obstacles placed on our country," Mishustin said, quoted by Reuters.

The effect of the sanctions was painful, however, as Western financial markets and many export markets for Russian companies and goods were closed. According to the Russian Prime Minister, however, this stimulated the economy of Russia, which began to produce Western products itself, buying the assets of foreign companies that were leaving.

Declining oil and gas revenues in January-May this year were almost half of what they were a year ago, driven by lower Urals crude oil prices and lower natural gas export volumes.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has repeatedly said that Russia's budget deficit this year will not be more than 2% of GDP, although most analysts do not share his optimism. The International Monetary Fund is among those expecting a larger budget deficit this year.

Volodymyr Zelensky is coming to Bulgaria

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Bulgaria at the invitation of the Bulgarian government.

This was reported from Bulgarian media which cited diplomatic sources.

The details of the visit of the President of Ukraine have not yet been specified, but it will probably take place on Thursday. For security reasons, the hours of Zelensky's visit are kept secret.

The visit by the President of Ukraine comes after Bulgarian MPs refused to listen to his appeal for help in the last parliament.

A few days ago, however, Zelensky's adviser Mykhailo Podolyak announced in an interview that Bulgaria should be proud of the way it helps Ukraine.

Previously, the deputies of the 47th Parliament refused to listen to the Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba. He spent several days in Sofia, trying to negotiate military assistance, but due to the participation of the Bulgarian Socialist Party and Kornelia Ninova in the government at the time, direct assistance was denied.

Day 497 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Xi Jinping personally told Putin not to touch Nuclear Weapons

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