Day 496 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Putin Warned that the potential for Global Conflict is Increasing

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Day 496 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

• Putin has warned that the potential for global conflict is increasing
• Ukraine welcomes Stoltenberg's stay as the head of NATO
• Russia thwarted a Ukrainian drone attack near Moscow
• Ukraine reports unsatisfactory progress in its counteroffensive
• Beaten, cut, with broken fingers: In Chechnya, a journalist from "Novaya Gazeta" was attacked
• The president of Lithuania called for a quick path for Ukraine to NATO after the war
• Prigozhin's private army settled in three camps in Belarus

Putin has warned that the potential for global conflict is increasing

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that the potential for conflict in the world is growing and Russia is feeling it.

According to him, geopolitical contradictions are intensifying in the world and the degradation of the international security system continues.

"Geopolitical conflicts are increasingly intensifying, the international security system is deteriorating, the risks of a new economic and financial crisis are increasing against the background of the uncontrolled accumulation of debts in developed countries, social stratification and the growth of poverty throughout the world, as well as the deterioration of food security and environmental security. And all these problems, each of which is complex and diverse in its own way, together lead to a significant increase in the potential for conflict," the Russian president said during a video conference meeting of leaders from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

He assured that Russia will continue to resist Western sanctions and used the occasion to send a message of defiance to the West, saying that "Russia is resisting all these external sanctions, pressures and provocations and continues to develop like never before", writes the BBC.

Putin added that more than 80 percent of trade between Russia and China is now in rubles and yuan, and called on other SCO members to follow suit.

In doing so, he received absent support from Chinese President Xi Jinping, who spoke at the forum before him and said Beijing "will oppose unilateral sanctions and the generalization of the concept of national security."

This is Putin's first international appearance since the attempted rebellion by Wagner two weeks ago. In his speech, the Russian head of state said that "Russian political circles and the entire society clearly showed their unity and high sense of responsibility for the fate of the motherland when they responded with a united front against the attempted armed rebellion."

Reuters said the emphasis on Russia's unity at the meeting with key allies showed Putin's strong desire to shake off suspicions of a shake-up in his international authority after the Wagner rebellion.

The summit was attended by all members of the Shanghai Security Organization - a regional counter-terrorism body - China, India, Pakistan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Vladimir Putin advocated for the urgent admission of Belarus, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi - of Iran.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the SCO summit is being held against the backdrop of growing global challenges and risks.

"But at a time when the world needs to work together, differences are only increasing and geopolitical tensions are rising," Guterres added.

He emphasized that differences in approaches to global problems and different views on non-traditional security challenges, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine, contribute to this.

Ukraine welcomes Stoltenberg's stay as the head of NATO

Ukraine welcomes NATO's decision to extend the mandate of Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for another year.

Ukrainian troops have reported that they have regained more positions in the fighting against Russian forces.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba assessed Jens Stoltenberg's stay at the head of NATO as great news and added that difficult times require strong leadership, and Stoltenberg has shown it.

Ukraine reported casualties from Russian strikes on Kherson that hit residential homes. A day of mourning has been announced in Sumy today for the victims of the attack by Russian drones on a residential building in the center of the city. Three people were killed in yesterday's strikes.

At the same time, the general staff reported successes in the counteroffensive in the direction of Berdyansk. The gains are two kilometers. Warehouses and equipment of the Russian troops were destroyed.

Russia thwarted a Ukrainian drone attack near Moscow

In Russia, three drones were shot down this morning - two over the outskirts of Moscow and one over the Kaluga region, Russian authorities said. Earlier, Ukraine said its troops had regained more positions on the eastern and southern fronts.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Ukraine had launched a new drone attack on the Russian capital and its region, causing a temporary suspension of flights at Vnukovo Airport.

For security reasons, 14 flights were diverted to neighboring airports. A little after 8 o'clock, the normal work of "Vnukovo" was resumed. Another drone fell on the territory of a military site in the town of Kubinka in the Moscow region and another was destroyed in the Kaluga region. At the end of May, Moscow was attacked with 8 drones. Material damage was caused to three multi-story residential buildings. On June 21, three unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down in New Moscow and the Moscow Region.

"At this moment, the attacks have been repulsed by air defense forces," Sobyanin said on his Telegram channel. All detected drones have been eliminated, there are no reports of casualties or injuries, Sobyanin added. Earlier, emergency services said the three drones appeared to have headed for the Russian capital at different times. Two of them were shot down over New Moscow, and one over the Kaluga region, nearly 200 kilometers to the south.

Russian MFA spokeswoman Maria Zakharova directly accused the Kyiv regime of a "terrorist attack against civilian infrastructure, including an airport."

The Ministry of Defense of Russia subsequently specified that four Ukrainian drones were shot down in the Moscow region.

Ukraine has seen an intensification of fighting around the destroyed eastern city of Bakhmut. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said the Ukrainian military had retaken 37 square kilometers of territory in heavy fighting over the past week. According to her, Russian forces attacked near Lyman, in the northern part of Donetsk region, and near Avdiivka and Mariinka, west of Bakhmut. “Last week was tough on the front line. But we are making progress," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote in Telegram.

Ukraine reports unsatisfactory progress in its counteroffensive

The Ukrainian army has made progress in its counteroffensive in the south, and Russian forces are advancing in the Donbas.

Over the past week, the Ukrainian army has regained control of 9 square kilometers in the east and 28 square kilometers in the south, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said. Progress is far slower than last September, when Ukrainians reclaimed 9,000 square kilometers in Kharkiv and another 5,000 square kilometers in November in Kherson Oblast. Russia has now been consolidating its defense lines for months, some of which extend 30 kilometers. Last week was difficult on the front line, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted.

In his traditional evening address, Zelensky said that Ukraine's air defenses were not sufficient to protect against Russian attacks and pointed out that yesterday's attack in Sumy, in which two people died, was a result of that.

"Unfortunately, our country still does not have enough high-tech defense systems to defend the entire territory and take down all enemy targets. The enemy is taking advantage of this, as it did with the terrorist attacks in Sumy, where they used an Iranian drone and targeted residential buildings and the building of the Security Service," commented Zelensky.

Beaten, cut, with broken fingers: In Chechnya, a journalist from "Novaya Gazeta" was attacked

Unidentified persons attacked Novaya Gazeta journalist Elena Milashina and lawyer Alexander Nemov early this morning, the newspaper's European edition reported, citing the "Team Against Torture".

Armed men with masks in three cars blocked the way of the taxi in which the two were on their way from the airport. Milashina and Nemov were severely beaten and even kicked in the head. Their equipment and documents were destroyed.

The attackers threatened them with a gun held to their heads. According to Nemov, the attackers told him and Milashina to leave: "Go away, they warned you, don't write anything."

The two are in a hospital in the city of Grozny in serious condition, and transporting the journalist is impossible without a special vehicle.

Milashina's hair was cut, her fingers on both hands were broken, she was covered in green paint and she often lost consciousness.

Nemov moves poorly and hardly speaks. He was stabbed in the leg.

Milashina and Nemov were in Chechnya to attend the trial of Zarema Musaeva, who was abducted by Chechen police from Nizhny Novgorod in January 2022. The verdict is due to be announced today. Nemov is Musaeva's lawyer.

On June 15, the prosecutor's office requested that Musaeva receive 5.5 years in prison.

She is the wife of retired Supreme Court judge Saidi Yangulbaev and the mother of Chechen human rights activists Abubakar and Ibrahim Yangulbaev. She has been in pre-trial detention in Grozny since January 2022 on charges of violence against a security officer. During that time, according to her son, her vision deteriorated and she developed back pain that left her practically unable to move. In June it became known that she was in a hospital.

Journalist Yelena #Milashina after being beaten in #Chechnya. pic.twitter.com/AiqAt8tQGG

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) July 4, 2023

The president of Lithuania called for a quick path for Ukraine to NATO after the war

Lithuania's president urged NATO leaders to be bolder on Ukraine's membership of the alliance at a summit in his country next week, saying it would boost Kyiv's performance on the battlefield and Moscow would count any caution as weakness.

In an interview with Reuters, President Gitanas Nauseda advised NATO allies to ignore concerns that bringing Ukraine into the alliance would provoke Russia, which invaded Ukraine on February 22, 2022.

"We must not hesitate to take bolder decisions, because otherwise Putin's regime will decide that the Western allies are too weak, (that they should be) cornered and surrender," Nauseda stressed. "Our stronger formulation of Ukraine's prospect (for membership) would certainly raise the morale of Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield. And that is very important," he added.

Ukraine is demanding that NATO announce at the July 11-12 summit that Kyiv will join the alliance soon after the end of the war and lay out a roadmap for membership.

But other members such as the US and Germany are more cautious and wary of any moves they fear could bring the alliance closer to active war with Russia, Moscow has long viewed NATO expansion as evidence of Western hostility.

Nauseda told Reuters that a promise of an easier path to NATO membership after the war and more military support commitments could be offered to Ukraine at next week's meeting.

"There are some countries that are wary of the stronger wording on Ukraine's perspective. But I already see some change in the opinion of their leaders," Nauseda noted.

"We all understand that right now, in the middle of the war, Ukraine is not in a position to join NATO immediately. We understand that. Ukrainians understand that. But we have to create procedures, how to proceed...so that we don't wastes time when the war is over and victory is on the Ukrainian side."

Nauseda said he expected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to appear in Vilnius despite his warnings that he saw "no point" in going if Kyiv was not given a "signal" at the meeting: "I hope he will be here and will play an important role in decision-making in Vilnius."

Several countries are preparing an "additional portfolio of (military support) obligations" for Ukraine to be announced at the NATO summit, Nauseda added.

However, the possibility of Sweden being accepted into NATO in Vilnius is getting "complicated" and the chances that it will be able to join the summit are decreasing "every day", commented Nauseda.

Sweden applied to join NATO after the Russian invasion, but Turkey and Hungary have so far blocked the ratification of its application.

Nauseda said he expects Germany to deploy 4,000 troops to Lithuania with their families and equipment by around 2026-2027, with a gradual increase. This was promised by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius last week, and Canada is making a decision to increase its troops in Latvia, Nauseda said.

The Lithuanian president said the host country expected provocations during and after the meeting along its border with Belarus, where Russia's private army Wagner was offered asylum after the failed coup attempt.

According to him, it is possible that the fighters from "Wagner" "appear at the border as migrants or as citizens of Belarus".

"We can expect a lot of provocations there, especially before the summit in Vilnius or after. And I think this is a very important element of our security," he added.

Prigozhin's private army settled in three camps in Belarus

Mercenaries from Yevgeny Prigozhin's private army "Wagner" have settled in camps in Belarus, "Grey Zone" reported on its Telegram channel, associated with the "musicians".

"Some units of the Wagner Group have already started the training process, for example, practicing tank maneuvers and maneuvers with heavy equipment at the range located a few kilometers to the south, also practicing assault operations under the cover of artillery, including at night," was said in the message.

And it is added that a total of three PMC bases will be set up in Belarus. One of them is in an abandoned military building in the village of Tsil near Asipovichy, Mogilev region, according to a Verstka publication. Satellite photos of the base were published by the Belarusian Radio Freedom. They show tents and modules for about 8,000 fighters. “Sirena”, cited by “Важные истории”s, also published photos from inside the camp, the authenticity of which was indirectly confirmed by Gray Zone.

Exactly where the other two mercenary camps will be located is not yet clear. Earlier in the chats of relatives of "Wagner" fighters, there were reports of a new PMC camp near Baranavichy. There is currently no evidence to support these reports.

However, relatives of the mercenaries confirmed that their loved ones are already in Belarus or are preparing to be sent there.

"They have been transferred to Belarus, there they will study and train constantly. For now, they will not participate in military operations. In general, at the moment, the Wagnerites are on leave for a month or a month and a half and do not participate in military operations. In a week, he will be in Belarus, where he will train Belarusian soldiers," said the father of one of the mercenaries.

The brother of one of the fighters said that his relative is already in Belarus. But he was not brought there from a camp in Russia, but from the war zone in Ukraine.

A relative of another Wagner fighter reported that her man was sent to Belarus today.

"They will stand on the border with Ukraine and Poland and train others," she said.

According to the woman, a battalion of mercenaries (up to 950 people) was sent to Belarus at the end of June. Her relative told her that many "musicians" decided not to go to Belarus, but to return to Russia.

At the same time, PMC "Wagner" continues to recruit mercenaries in Russia, although the formation's communities on social networks claim that the process has been stopped due to "temporary non-participation" in the war in Ukraine and "relocation" to Belarus.

A PMC recruiter told an “Важные истории” journalist who called the recruitment center under the pretext of wanting to join the formation that recruits could still sign a contract with the group.

The possibility of directly joining PMC "Wagner" is still closed to military personnel from the Ministry of Defense. However, according to the recruiter, even now it is possible to enter the war zone in Ukraine through the PMC, after training at the training ground in Molkino, Krasnodar Territory. Wagner's African and Middle Eastern destinations are also still open for new recruits. There is currently no recruitment of fighters for Belarus.

After Yevgeny Prigozhin's armed rebellion on June 23-24, the Kremlin announced that the leader of the mercenaries would leave for Belarus.

President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that the mercenaries will begin training the Belarusian army and will be stationed in a former military building.

The head of the defense committee of the Duma, Andrey Kartapolov, assured that after the uprising, PMC Wagner fighters will not be able to participate in the war in Ukraine, unless they sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense or another official security agency.

After the reports about the deployment of the PMC in Belarus, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the command of the VSU to reinforce the northern direction, fearing possible active actions of the mercenaries in the direction of Kyiv.

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