Day 492 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Holder of a Nuclear Briefcase Gerasimov has not been seen in Public since the Attempted Coup

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Day 492 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

• Holder of a nuclear briefcase General Valery Gerasimov has not been seen in public since the attempted riot in Russia
• A third of Russians approve of Prigozhin even after the rebellion
• CNN: General Surovikin was a secret VIP member of PMC "Wagner”
• Lavrov in response to a question from Bulgaria’s National Radio: Ukrainians had equipment in schools and in the courtyards of residential buildings
• Sergey Cherevatiy: Russia throws 50 thousand people into the Bakhmut area
• The Institute of War: The Ukrainian Army has taken the strategic initiative in the Bakhmut direction
• EU leaders backed security commitments for Ukraine
• BBC: "Wagner" is still recruiting fighters across Russia
• Prigozhin was informed that "Wagner" would no longer fight in Ukraine
• Wall Street Journal: The US will soon provide ATACMS missiles to Ukraine

Holder of a nuclear briefcase General Valery Gerasimov has not been seen in public since the attempted riot in Russia

The Chief of the General Staff of Russia, General Valery Gerasimov, commander of Russian forces in Ukraine and holder of one of Russia's three "nuclear briefcases", has not appeared in public since Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion, Reuters notes. This is another high-ranking military official after General Sergey Surovikin who disappeared after the attempted military coup in Russia.

Both Gerasimov and Surovikin have not been seen in public for nearly a week since the failed coup organized by the Wagner group, prompting various speculations about their fate, but Gerasimov's case is more interesting because he is one of three in the Russian state with access to the nuclear button - the briefcase with the activation codes of the Russian nuclear arsenal.

On Wednesday evening, the independent "The Moscow Times" reported that the former commander-in-chief of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, General Sergey Surovikin, had been arrested. As the "New York Times" wrote, it is assumed that the general knew in advance of Yevgeny Prigozhin's plans to launch an armed rebellion against the Russian military leadership.

For Gerasimov, there is hardly any concern that he was arrested, and his case differs from Surovikin's. Gerasimov himself was one of the targets of Yevgeny Prigozhin's coup attempt. Going on a march against Moscow, the head of the Wagner group demanded the resignation of both Gerasimov and the head of the Ministry of National Defense, Sergei Shoigu, and even intended to capture and arrest them.

Western observers are speculating about the whereabouts of General Valery Gerasimov. His absence from the Russian propaganda media is puzzling. It is possible that Putin has not yet made a final decision on how to respond to the Wagner Group rebellion, including a decision on a possible reshuffle of the Russian command staff.

Oleksii Arestovych made interesting notes about the role of the Russian generals over the years and the place of generals like Gerasimov in them. As he notes, in the last 300 years, the main force capable of removing the rulers of Russia has been the army. And he makes an interesting parallel between Stalin and Putin.

"Stalin, whom Putin is trying to emulate, had no education, but he had a good understanding of people and administrative balance. Certainly, Stalin was a weapon of Satan who killed tens of millions of people. Putin, compared to him, is a little devil, who has decided to go down the path of negative selection in the military leadership, appointing greedy, dumb and loyal people to positions and letting them climb the career ladder. Suffice it to compare Putin's faithful triangle Shoigu-Gerasimov-Prigozhin with the military triangle of Stalin Zhukov-Vasilevsky-Rokosovsky and the prospects in the external and internal war for today's Kremlin immediately become clear," commented Arestovych .

A third of Russians approve of Prigozhin even after the rebellion

A third of Russians approve of the founder of the private military company Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, after his rebellion late last week.

This is indicated by a study by "Levada Center", which, however, also shows a sharp drop in its rating after the events. In the time before them, 30% of the respondents approved "completely", 28% - "rather", his activity; a total of 58%. For comparison, on June 25-28, respectively, 11 and 18 percent of the respondents gave the same answer - a total of 29 percent.

The Levada survey was conducted between June 22 and 28 among 1,634 people in 137 settlements.

The data also shows that Prigozhin's approval rating has been falling since June 24, the day after he announced he would punish Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for an alleged strike (which Shoigu's office denies) on Wagner positions.

When asked what they did not like about Prigozhin, a third answered that he created a rebellion, that he was a traitor, stood up to the authorities, stabbed Putin in the back. Another 8 percent talk about "illegitimate ambitions"; also 8% indicate he is "aggressive, arrogant, talkative". A quarter find it difficult to answer.

The decline recorded for Shoigu is much smaller. A week before the riot, 60 percent fully approved its activity, at the beginning of the week - 48 percent.

There is almost no change in approval ratings for Putin, which according to another Levada survey was at 82 percent before the uprising, 79 percent on June 24 and 82 percent in the days after. The publication "Meduza" questions this on the basis of data from regional politicians, according to which the real trust in Putin is 9-14%, and this was communicated to them by the Kremlin as a result of "express research" presented at a meeting on June 29.

CNN: General Surovikin was a secret VIP member of PMC "Wagner”

Russian General Sergey Surovikin, known as the “Butcher of Syria” or “General Armageddon”, was a secret member of PMC Wagner, CNN claims, citing documents that have been exclusively shared with the media.

The evidence was provided by Russia's Dossier Investigations Center and, if accepted as authentic, indicates that General Surovikin had a personal identification number at PMC Wagner

“General Armageddon” appears on the list in the company of at least 30 other high-ranking Russian military and intelligence officials, also VIP members of Yevgeny Prigozhin's military company.

General Sergey Surovikin, who is the deputy commander-in-chief of Russian forces in the war in Ukraine, has not been seen in public since last Saturday, when he released a video calling on Wagner's boss Yevgeny Prigozhin to end the rebellion. Since then, his whereabouts have remained unknown, CNN recalls.

The TV channel has asked the Wagner Group about the Dossier Center's revelations but has not yet received a response. It is not clear what the Wagner VIP membership is, nor if there are any financial benefits to it. Until now, Surovikin was known to have ties to the mercenary group, but the documents raise questions about the closeness of senior members of the Russian military and Wagner.

During Prigozhin's brief rebellion, Wagner's fighters managed to capture the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don with virtually no resistance from the Russian army.

Lavrov in response to a question from Bulgaria’s National Radio: Ukrainians had equipment in schools and in the courtyards of residential buildings

“The Russian armed forces do not attack civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine”. This was stated at a press conference by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, in response to a question of BNR.

"Please do not forget that since the beginning of the special military operation, there have been many facts when Ukrainian military units have deployed heavy equipment in the yards of residential buildings, on the territory of schools and even in the premises."

Asked if he could confirm the official UN figures on the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine, Lavrov replied:

"I have no information from where the UN gets its information. At least we have not been asked such questions".

According to the latest data of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the number of civilian deaths in Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian military invasion is 9,083.

Sergey Cherevatiy: Russia throws 50 thousand people into the Bakhmut area

The Russian army concentrates about 50,000 people and hundreds of armored vehicles in the Bakhmut direction. This was stated in a comment for the "Ukrainian National News - UNN" agency, by Sergey Cherevatiy, spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences.

"The enemy has prepared quite a powerful group, about 50,000 people. In addition, more than 300 tanks, over 900 different combat vehicles of various types, more than 30 artillery systems and about 130-140 missile salvo systems are concentrated there. In other words, it's all hitting us at the same time," the spokesperson said.

In his words, in order to preserve their military prestige and not to give up the previously captured Bakhmut, the occupiers sent their best combat units there.

"These are primarily airborne units, motorized rifle units, units of the combat army reserve and territorial troops, as well as other private companies of the type 'veterans' or 'patriots'", Cherevati added.

Despite this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to strike at the occupiers. According to preliminary data, the number of "Wagner" fighters killed in the Bakhmut direction is over 20,000 people. Now there are no Wagnerites among the forces around Bakhmut. There are also no Chechens from Ramzan Kadyrov's "Akhmat" battalion on the battlefield, since, according to Cherevatiy, throughout the war they have shown themselves more like gendarmerie or police units, somewhere in the second or third echelon, where they can purge the population as much as possible.

After the failed upheaval in the Russian Federation, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov positioned himself as a military leader ready to go into battle on Vladimir Putin's side. But unlike PMC Wagner, which Moscow is now trying to disband, Chechen special forces have earned a reputation as "TikTok fighters" who are more concerned with their appearance on social media than success on the battlefield, notes Financial Times.

The Institute of War: The Ukrainian Army has taken the strategic initiative in the Bakhmut direction

Ukrainian forces have seized the "strategic initiative" in the direction of Bakhmut and are currently conducting a broad offensive in the area, the Institute for War said in its latest analysis of the situation on the fronts in Ukraine, citing the latest report of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In this spirit is also the statement of the Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar that the Ukrainian forces have taken the "operational initiative" in the area and reported that the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced 1,200 m in the direction of Klishchievka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut) and 1,500 m in the direction of Kurdyumivka (13 km southwest of Bakhmut).

Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi also spoke about Ukrainian superiority in a conversation with the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US, General Mark Milley, on June 29. ISW has previously assessed that Ukrainian forces have gained the initiative at all levels along almost the entire front since the capture of Bakhmut by the Russians on 21 May.

In parallel, the VSU conducted offensive operations in at least two other sectors of the front and reportedly made progress on 29 June. The Ukrainian General Staff announced that the army continued offensive operations in the western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and on the administrative border between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success along the Rivnopol-Volodyne line (up to 16 km southwest of Velika Novosilka).

A day earlier, the former commander of the "Azov" regiment, Major Maxim Zhorin of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said that in the direction of Bakhmut - both on the flanks and in the city itself - 24-hour battles are being fought.

EU leaders backed security commitments for Ukraine

European Union leaders announced on Thursday that they will make long-term commitments to strengthen Ukraine's security after President Volodymyr Zelensky called on them to begin work on a new round of sanctions against Russia, Reuters reported.

At a summit in Brussels, leaders again condemned Russia's war on Ukraine and said the EU and its member states were "ready" to contribute to commitments that would help Ukraine defend itself in the long term.

In a text summarizing the conclusions of the summit, the leaders said they would quickly consider the form these commitments would take.

Josep Borrell, the bloc's foreign policy chief, hinted that they could build on existing EU aid such as the European Peace Support Mechanism fund.

"Military support for Ukraine must be long-term," Borrell told reporters, hinting that the EU could create a Ukrainian defense fund modeled on the peace support mechanism.

"The training must continue, the modernization of the army must continue. Ukraine needs our commitment to continue to ensure their security during the war and after the war," he added.

France - an advocate of a greater role in the security and defense of the European Union - proposed the text, diplomats said.

But it was amended to address the concerns of militarily neutral states and staunch supporters of transatlantic cooperation, such as the Baltic states, who see European security primarily as a matter for NATO, with a strong US role. The final text says the EU will contribute "together with partners" and "with full respect for the security and defense policy of certain member states".

The EU statement fueled a discussion among NATO members and military powers such as the United States, Britain, France and Germany about measures to reassure Ukraine that the West is committed to improving its security in the long term.

Ukraine argues that the best way to ensure its own security and that of Europe is to join NATO. But Kyiv admits that is not possible while the war continues and NATO allies are divided on how quickly it can happen after that.

Addressing EU leaders via video link, Zelensky thanked them for the 11th package of sanctions against Russia, which was approved earlier this month and aims to prevent other countries and companies from circumventing existing measures.

"It is important not to stop imposing sanctions," he said, according to the text of his speech posted on the website of the Ukrainian presidency.

"The fewer pauses there are, the less Russia will adapt to the pressure on it and the harder it will be to come up with ways to circumvent the sanctions," he added.

Zelensky made a reference to last weekend's failed rebellion by the Wagner mercenary group in Russia.

"The weaker Russia is and the more its leaders fear rebellions and uprisings, the more they will fear provoking us. Russia's weakness will make it safe for others and its defeat will solve the problem of this war," he stressed.

BBC: "Wagner" is still recruiting fighters across Russia

The Wagner Group is still recruiting fighters across Russia, days after staging the insurgency and claiming they are falling under the purview of the defense ministry. This was established by BBC journalists after phone calls.

Using Russian phone numbers, the journalists called more than ten recruitment centers, claiming to be brothers of supposed potential candidates.

Those who answered the phone said the centers were operating as usual. The BBC reported that from Kaliningrad in the west to Krasnodar in the south, no one believed that Wagner was disbanding.

In the Arctic city of Murmansk, a woman from the “Viking” sports club has confirmed that she continues to recruit fighters for Ukraine.

The long list of places of contact with "Wagner" mainly includes fight clubs, including martial arts schools and boxing schools.

Several of the people on the other end of the line have pointed out that the new members are signing contracts with the mercenary group itself, not the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Demands that the mercenaries be transferred to the Ministry of Defence, thus bringing the Wagner Group and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to their knees, were at the heart of the bitter feud that erupted into armed rebellion last weekend, the BBC recalls.

However, the media added that the criminal case against the rebels was still dropped while this is happening in a country where many opposition activists are serving long sentences just for speaking out against Russia's war in Ukraine.

Prigozhin was informed that "Wagner" would no longer fight in Ukraine

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been told his group will no longer fight in Ukraine because he has refused to sign contracts with the defense ministry, a senior lawmaker said, quoted by Reuters.

Andrey Kartapolov, an influential lawmaker who chairs the Russian Duma's defense committee, said the reason for Saturday's rebellion was Prigozhin's disagreement with the defense ministry's request for his mercenary group to sign contracts.

"As you know, a few days before the attempted mutiny, the Ministry of Defense said that all formations performing combat missions must sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense," Kartapolov said.

"Everyone has started to implement this decision... everyone except Mr. Prigozhin," he added.

Prigozhin announced on June 11 that his Wagner fighters would not sign any contract with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, adding that Shoigu was incapable of commanding military units.

Kartapolov said that after Prigozhin refused to sign the contracts, he was told that his mercenaries would no longer fight in Ukraine and therefore would not receive state money.

The influential Duma deputy added that Prigozhin was driven first by money, secondly by excessive and foolish ambitions and thirdly, he was in a state of affect. "All this led to an attempt at treason and deception of his comrades," Kartapolov said in a comment on the reasons for the rebellion, BTA reported, citing TASS.

Wall Street Journal: The US will soon provide ATACMS missiles to Ukraine

The US is close to approving the transfer of ATACMS long-range missile systems to Ukraine. These missiles could turn the tide of the war against the Russian occupiers, US and European officials say.

As detailed by The Wall Street Journal, the ATACMS has a range of about 300 km, which is enough to allow Ukrainian forces to strike Russian targets far behind the front lines. President Biden has not signed the transfer, in part because of US officials' concerns that Ukraine could use them to strike Russian territory and escalate the conflict, drawing the West into it.

Officials said the matter was being looked into at the highest level. American and European experts, however, are finding signs that the White House, previously reluctant to hand over this type of weaponry, has come to the conclusion that support for the Ukrainian resistance is urgently needed in the coming weeks.

But amid domestic turmoil in Russia, where PMC Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin staged a failed coup over the weekend, US and European officials acknowledged that now might be the time to step on the pedal.

The ATACMS missiles are fired from the infamous HIMARS that effectively stopped the Russian invasion of Ukraine with far weaker munitions.

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