Day 488 of the Invasion of Ukraine: The Fallout after Prigozhin’s Rebellion

Ukraine | June 26, 2023, Monday // 09:48|  views

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Day 488 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

  • The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Rivnopil
  • Hungary blocks the next tranche of EU military aid to Ukraine
  • Threats to the families of the 'Wagner' leaders have stopped the advance of the 'musicians' towards Moscow
  • Stoltenberg: Wagner's mutiny shows Moscow made a strategic mistake with the attack on Ukraine
  • ARD TV: Official negotiations on the war in Ukraine may begin as early as July
  • How Putin negotiated indirectly with Prigozhin, according to Meduza's sources
  • Moscow canceled the counter-terrorist regime
  • Russia showed Shoigu for the first time since the rebellion
  • Hana Maliar: Ukraine has regained 130 sq km along the southern front line since the start of the counteroffensive
  • Zelensky discussed the course of the conflict and the rebellious situation in Russia with Western leaders
  • Prigozhin should be very careful around open windows - advises the former head of the CIA
  • The rebellion shows the vulnerability in the Russian camp, according to Macron
  • Lithuania wants the strengthening of NATO's Eastern flank after Prigozhin’s escape to Belarus
  • China has dismissed the rebellion as Russia's "internal affairs"
  • Australia to provide Ukraine with military vehicles and ammunition worth million


The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Rivnopil

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated the village of Rivnopil in the Donetsk region, reported Hanna Maliar, Deputy Minister of Defense in Kyiv.

Video evidence of this also appeared a little later.

The fighters of the 31st all-army mechanized brigade have entered Rivnopil. They posted a recording from the settlement and announced:

"The orcs are running, we're moving forward!"

Hungary blocks the next tranche of EU military aid to Ukraine

Hungary did not support the payment to Ukraine of the next tranche of the European Peace Facility Mechanism, around 500 million euros, because of the placement of OTP Bank on the Ukrainian "blacklist", the Hungarian Foreign Minister said, quoted by "Reuters".

"We are ready to change our decision if the Ukrainians put an end to the ridiculous, false situation where OTP, the biggest Hungarian bank, is on the list of international organizations supporting the war," Peter Szijártó said.

Hungary already blocked the payment of this tranche to member states in May, citing the same issue.

The mechanism, created in 2021, is an extra-budgetary tool aimed at improving the EU's ability to prevent conflicts, build peace and strengthen international security, notes Reuters

Threats to the families of the 'Wagner' leaders have stopped the advance of the 'musicians' towards Moscow

The creator of "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin was forced to cancel the advance on Moscow because of threats to the families of the leaders of the private army, sources of the British security forces claimed, quoted by BNR. British politicians and parliamentarians have warned that Britain must prepare for the sudden fall of Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime.

The Daily Telegraph cited British security services as saying that the families of Wagner leaders were threatened by Russian intelligence before Yevgeny Prigozhin halted his advance on Moscow. In addition, the mercenaries had 8,000 fighters, not 25,000 as claimed, and they would not have been able to capture the Russian capital.

Vladimir Putin will now try to assimilate soldiers from the Wagner group into the Russian army and disable its former leaders, according to British intelligence. The newspaper said the threat went some way to explaining the mystery surrounding Prigozhin's order to call off the advance on Moscow just hours before it reached the capital, although the question of exactly what deal was struck remains.

"The Daily Telegraph" also quoted Russian lawmaker Andrey Gurulyov, a reserve general and staunch ally of Putin, as saying "there is no other option but for Prigozhin and the other senior Wagner figures to be executed."

"The Times" writes that a high-ranking source in the British government has told them that the kingdom "must prepare for a whole range of scenarios" in the event of the sudden fall of Vladimir Putin's regime amid fears that "the mortally wounded despot " may carry out a "Stalin"-style purge to hang on to power.

The chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, Alicia Kearns, has warned that Putin may launch a purge to survive, as his propagandists fiercely question why the march on Moscow has been allowed to progress so far.

"No one believes that Prigozhin is going to Belarus to live quietly and peacefully there. Putin is mortally wounded, but I don't think anyone can say that Putin is finished. There is nothing Putin hates more than a traitor" says Alicia Kearns.

Stoltenberg: Wagner's mutiny shows Moscow made a strategic mistake with the attack on Ukraine

The rebellion of the private military company "Wagner" shows that Moscow made a strategic mistake with the attack on Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today, quoted by Reuters.

"The events of the weekend are an internal affair of Russia, but they showed once again the big strategic mistake that President (Vladimir) Putin made with the illegal annexation of Crimea and the war against Ukraine," Stoltenberg told reporters during his visit to the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius.

Western governments are baffled by the weekend's unusual events and are wondering what else could happen to the country with the world's largest nuclear arsenal.

Stoltenberg said that NATO is monitoring the situation in Belarus. The Secretary General once again criticized Moscow's decision to deploy its nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory.

"NATO sees no indication that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons, but we remain vigilant," Stoltenberg said.

"As long as Russia continues its attack, it is important that we continue to support Ukraine," the Secretary General emphasized.

"If Russia thinks that it will scare us and that we will stop supporting Ukraine, it will fail. We will support Ukraine as much as necessary," Stoltenberg was categorical.

ARD TV: Official negotiations on the war in Ukraine may begin as early as July

Official international negotiations to end the war in Ukraine may begin as early as July, the news website of the German television ARD reported on Monday, citing its sources. The news comes after an international meeting on Ukraine held in Copenhagen under conditions of confidentiality with the participation of diplomats from Western countries, as well as representatives of Brazil, India, China and South Africa.

At the conference in Denmark, which was also attended by US national security adviser Jake Sullivan, the main aim was to gain support from countries that have so far been neutral or cautious - such as Brazil, India, South Africa and China. The meeting in Copenhagen was initiated by Kyiv.

The move is seen as an important step towards holding peace talks. According to the ARD studio in Brussels, the official talks may take place as early as July.

On June 23, an EU representative confirmed to journalists that Ukraine has initiated a meeting of representatives of Western countries with their counterparts from the countries of the Global South for June 24 in Copenhagen. Earlier, Bloomberg, citing its sources, also reported that such talks were expected.

An additional nuance to the meeting in Copenhagen are the warm comments in the Indian press about the visit of the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi to the USA, as well as a comment by the Prime Minister himself about this visit. "India and the US are united by a common vision and a common destiny. As our partnership progresses, the world will be a better place," Modi tweeted.

US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in Washington to strengthen relations and seek a strategic counterbalance to China.

The Indian prime minister was welcomed in Washington with fanfare reserved for close allies. There was a military band, a joint press conference with Joe Biden in the Oval Office, two dinners and a standing ovation in Congress. Narendra Modi, who was in the US from Wednesday to Saturday, also met members of the Indian diaspora.

Americans see the largest democracy as an ally in competition with China and a strategic counterbalance to Beijing. For India, the visit was an opportunity to present itself as a world power. Prime Minister Modi emphasized that he is visiting the US at a time when the world order is taking a new shape. During the visit, described as a breakthrough, a number of agreements were signed, including agreements on key materials and technologies for the economy, as well as defense and space research cooperation.

How Putin negotiated indirectly with Prigozhin, according to Meduza's sources

The Kremlin reacted cold-blooded to the tumult of the rebel leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Rosgvardia was ready to stop his troops before Moscow, but a peaceful outcome was preferred - without bloodshed between Russians, the Russian opposition publication "Meduza" wrote today, citing anonymous sources close to the Kremlin.

The future of Prigozhin, who avoided capital charges and went to Belarus, remains to be negotiated in detail, and the future of his private army "Wagner" is unclear. In any case, however, it will not have its previous influence and funding.

The intervention of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was necessary because Putin did not want to personally negotiate with a paramilitary leader. The talks with Prigozhin were conducted by Lukashenko, Putin's chief of staff Anton Vaino, Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev and Russia's ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov.

Negotiations began already on Friday, June 23, when Prigozhin announced the "march for justice" of his troops to Moscow, the main objectives of which were to overthrow the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov. The Kremlin's original goal was to subdue the rebels with talks, but when Prigozhin refused to withdraw his troops, Putin ordered officials to condemn the rebellion and personally issued a statement calling it treason.

In his conversations with the people from the Kremlin, Prigozhin acted overexcited, did not formulate clear demands beyond the removal of Shoigu and Gerasimov, the regime not to interfere with "Wagner" and to increase funding for the private army. He insisted on conducting the negotiations at the highest possible level - personally with Putin. However, the president refused and Lukashenko had to be included as the main person of the mentioned negotiating team.

Meanwhile, the Russian army and Rosgvardia built the first line of defense against the "musicians" on the Oka River, about 200 kilometers from Moscow. According to the Kremlin sources quoted by "Meduza", at that moment Prigozhin realized that he had "crossed the line" and that "the prospects for the movement of his column are hazy".

Seeing the changing mood of Prigozhin, the Kremlin decided not to participate in a "bloody clash", the interlocutors of "Meduza" said. According to them, the final negotiations were handled by a large group of Kremlin officials, which included Vaino, Patrushev and Gryzlov. "Frontman" became Lukashenko.

"Prigozhin needed a worthy confidant to get out of the game (to save face). As such, Lukashenka got involved. He loves PR and understands the benefit - that's why he agreed," the "Meduza" interlocutor claims.

According to him, the "benefit" for Lukashenko is obvious: in public, he became the person who "saved Russia as a maximum from a civil war, and as a minimum - from a great bloodshed."

"Meduza" sources close to the Kremlin and the government of the Russian Federation agree that Prigozhin lost in his radical manifestation:

"He was expelled from Russia. The president does not forgive such things". According to them, the parties will still "discuss" the details of the agreement on Prigozhin's new position, but "he will not have the same influence and resources".

At the same time, a source close to the Kremlin did not rule out that as a result of the rebellion, there could be personnel changes in the leadership of the Ministry of Defense.

"But not at the request of Prigozhin, but because of the self-elimination of the Ministry of Defense."

At the very beginning of the rebellion, General Sergei Surovikin (who commanded the group of Russian troops in Ukraine from the beginning of October 2022 to the beginning of January 2023) made a video address in which he called on the "Wagner" fighters to stop and "solve the problems in a peaceful way ". The same video and at the same location was recorded by Army Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, who called Prigozhin's actions a "stab in the president's back" and an "attempted coup".

A few hours later, at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov, Prigozhin met with Alekseyev and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. The Wagner boss told them he was going to Moscow and wanted to "get the Chief of the General Staff (Valery Gerasimov) and (Defence Minister Sergei) Shoigu." Alekseyev answered with a smile: "Get them." Prigozhin also told the army negotiators that they were "old clowns".

At the same time, neither Shoigu nor Gerasimov has yet said a word about Prigozhin's commotion. It is not known where they have been all this time. Shoigu (allegedly) appeared in Ukraine on the morning of June 26.

However, a Meduza source close to the government doubts that personnel decisions in the Russian Ministry of Defense can be made in the near future:

"Putin almost never gives in to circumstances and does not bend under pressure."

Interlocutors close to the Kremlin at the same time admit that the rebellion has weakened Putin's position:

"He could not lower himself to Prigozhin, but yesterday (after the televised address) he was nowhere to be seen".

Moscow canceled the counter-terrorist regime

The mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, said that he was canceling the counter-terrorist regime imposed in the Russian capital, "Reuters" reported.

Sobyanin announced the news in a statement published on Telegram. Russian media cited local offices of the Federal Security Service (FSB) as saying similar regimes had been lifted in the Moscow and Voronezh regions.

Separately, Russia's National Anti-Terrorism Committee said the situation in the country was "stable".

Anti-terrorist regimes were put in place in the three regions on Saturday as a convoy of Wagner mercenaries moved towards Moscow, exchanging fire with security forces.

Russia showed Shoigu for the first time since the rebellion

The Russian Ministry of Defense has released a video showing a "visit" by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to the headquarters of the “West” group of armed forces. According to the ministry, Shoigu listened to a report by the group commander and held a meeting.

So far, no footage of Shoigu had appeared since the rebellion of the founder of the private military company "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is in an irreconcilable feud with the line minister.

His removal was the main demand of the businessman as the convoy of "Wagner" vehicles moved towards the Kremlin.

The clip has no sound, it is not known exactly where it was filmed, or when. Yesterday, a video filmed before the rebellion aired with Russian President Vladimir Putin addressing the war in Ukraine and the economy. However, Putin commented on the events in a televised address on Saturday morning and called them a betrayal.

No images have yet been released with Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, whom Prigozhin also wanted to “remove” on Friday and Saturday.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Saturday night, after the rebellion ended, that personnel changes at the Defense Ministry had not been discussed.

Hana Maliar: Ukraine has regained 130 sq km along the southern front line since the start of the counteroffensive

Ukraine has managed to recapture about 130 square kilometers from Russian forces along the southern front line since the start of the counteroffensive, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hana Maliar said on Telegram on Monday, Reuters reported.

"The situation in the south has not undergone significant changes in the last week," Malyar said on Ukrainian national television.

She added that on the eastern part of the front line, which includes the directions of Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinka, there were about 250 armed clashes in the past week.

Maliar noted that while Russian forces were putting up "strong resistance," they were also suffering "significant losses in personnel, weapons and equipment." She added that Moscow had lost eight times as many soldiers in the past week as Ukraine.

In the east, Ukrainian forces conducted both offensive and defensive operations while achieving tactical successes, she added.

Zelensky discussed the course of the conflict and the rebellious situation in Russia with Western leaders

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has held a series of phone calls with Kyiv's allies to discuss the latest developments in Russia following the failed coup by the head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin, who raised questions about Russian President Vladimir Putin's grip on power on against the background of the ongoing counteroffensive in Ukraine to the south and east. The needs of the Ukrainian army were also discussed.

Zelensky announced that he had discussed the latest events in Russia and the needs of the Ukrainian army in the counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia and Donbas by phone with the American head of state, Joe Biden. The two also talked about further expanding defense cooperation, with an emphasis on long-range missiles.

In addition, Zelensky spoke with the presidents of Canada and Poland, Justin Trudeau and Andrzej Duda, with whom he discussed the alarming situation at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP.

Earlier this week, Zelensky warned that Russia was considering a terrorist attack at the plant involving the release of radiation - something Moscow denies. Trudeau confirmed that Canada is committed to standing by Ukraine and providing it with the support it needs.

According to the latest information from the governors of the Lipetsk and Voronezh regions, "Wagner" troops continue their withdrawal. Russian media reported material damage to residential buildings in Voronezh as a result of shootings.

There is still no statement from Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Wagner situation after he accused the mercenary group of treason. There are also no statements from Prigozhin, whose whereabouts are unknown.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron said the canceled Wagner "march" to Moscow demonstrated the division in the Russian camp, as well as the vulnerability of the Russian armed forces.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the uprising had exposed "cracks" in Putin's authority and that divisions among Russians could make aggression against Ukraine more difficult.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it supports stability in Russia and that the tension in the country is its "internal matters".

Meanwhile, an air alert was again declared in a number of regions of Ukraine this night. Loud explosions were heard in Odesa. The Air Force reported that the air defense was activated in the Odesa Oblast.

Prigozhin should be very careful around open windows - advises the former head of the CIA

Former CIA chief Reserve General David Petraeus warned the leader of the private mercenary army "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin "to be very careful around open windows" in an interview with CNN, cited by the Associated Press and BTA.

The general was apparently referring to the known number of Russians who died in unclear circumstances, including after falling from windows, after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the agency explained. Among them was the chairman of the board of Russia's largest private oil company, who criticized Russia's military operation in Ukraine. He fell from a hospital window in September last year, AP recalls.

After the rebellion of Prigozhin and his private army "Wagner" and their march on Moscow, which ended as surprisingly as it began with the mediation of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, it was agreed that Prigozhin would go into exile in Belarus. Lukashenko is a staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Prigozhin saved his овн life, but lost his Wagner group. And he should be very careful around open windows in his new habitat in Belarus, where he will go”, Petraeus pointed out.

The quick development with Prigozhin looked like a sign of weakness on Putin's part. But many of those who opposed Putin or betrayed him met their deaths months or years later, some even after leaving Russia.

Prigozhin's conflict is with the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense over the way the war in Ukraine is being waged. On Friday, he called Putin's justification for the invasion a "lie." The Russian president justified the invasion of a foreign country by wanting to denazify it. Prigozhin also accused the military of misleading Putin and Russian society by falsely claiming that Ukraine and NATO were planning to attack Russia.

Despite the agreement, there is still no information that the leader of "Wagner" has arrived in Belarus, notes AP. Prigozhin himself has been silent since the Kremlin announced the deal that ended his march on Moscow.

The rebellion shows the vulnerability in the Russian camp, according to Macron

Prigozhin’s rebellion shows the divisions that exist in the Russian camp, said French President Emmanuel Macron, quoted by AFP.

"Prigozhin's rebellion shows the divisions that exist in the Russian camp, the vulnerability of both its forces and its auxiliaries," Macron said in an interview with French publication “La Provence”.

"All this should make us more vigilant and fully justify the support we give to the Ukrainians in their resistance," added Macron.

Lithuania wants the strengthening of NATO's Eastern flank after Prigozhin’s escape to Belarus

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that NATO should strengthen its Eastern flank if Belarus shelters Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the private military company "Wagner".

Lithuania borders both Russia and Belarus and is hosting the NATO summit next month.

"If Prigozhin or part of the Wagner group end up in Belarus without plans and clearly defined intentions, it simply means that we need to strengthen our eastern borders," emphasized the president of Lithuania. "I'm not talking only about Lithuania, but also about the whole of NATO," he added.

Nauseda said his country would allocate more funds to intelligence to assess "political and security aspects in Belarus".

Nauseda believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin will face even greater difficulties after the "Wagner" rebellion and said of him: "The king is naked."

China has dismissed the rebellion as Russia's "internal affairs"

Chinese officials described the rebellion as Moscow's "internal affairs," the Guardian reported. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko held talks in Beijing on Sunday.

China's foreign ministry initially said only that Rudenko had exchanged views with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on Sino-Russian relations as well as "international and regional issues of common interest".

It was later stated that China supports Russia in maintaining its national stability.

"As a friendly neighbor and a comprehensive strategic partner in the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity," the statement said, without specifically mentioning Putin. The Russian Foreign Ministry said China had declared its support for the leadership in Moscow.

"The Chinese side expressed support for the efforts of the leadership of the Russian Federation to stabilize the situation in the country in connection with the events of June 24," the Russian Foreign Ministry announced.

Australia to provide Ukraine with military vehicles and ammunition worth million

The Australian government said on Monday it would provide Ukraine with a new A0 million ( million) military aid package, including 70 military vehicles and ammunition, Reuters reported.

The latest package of military aid will include 28 M113 armored vehicles, 14 special operations vehicles, 28 medium trucks and 14 trailers.

The new commitments bring Australia's total contribution to Ukraine to A0 million, including A0 million in military support, since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022.

"This additional support will make a real difference, helping the Ukrainian people, who continue to show great courage in the face of Russia's illegal, unprovoked and immoral war. Australia is unwavering in our determination to condemn and oppose Russia's actions and to help Ukraine achieve victory," Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said during a media briefing in Canberra.

He said the package was not prompted by events in Russia over the weekend, when heavily armed Russian mercenaries from the Wagner private military group briefly took control of the Russian city of Rostov.

Australia is one of the largest non-NATO contributors to Western support for Ukraine and has supplied aid, ammunition and defense equipment, including dozens of Bushmaster armored vehicles.

At the same time, the country banned the export of aluminum oxide and aluminum ores, including bauxite, to Russia and imposed sanctions on about 1,000 Russian individuals and legal entities.

To support Kyiv's economy and trade, Albanese said Australia would also extend duty-free access for goods imported from Ukraine for another 12 months.

Novinite is still the only Bulgarian media that publishes a summary of events and highlights related to the conflict, every single day. Our coverage began on day one - 24.02.2022 and will not stop until the war has concluded. Despite the pressure, our independent media will continue to provide its readers with accurate and up-to-date information. Thank you for your support! #stayinformed

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Tags: Prigozhin, Putin, Russia, Ukraine

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