Day 411 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Prigozhin thinks Kyiv is preparing a Counteroffensive with at least 200,000 Troops

Day 411 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

• Kyiv is changing plans for the counteroffensive because of leaked documents, CNN claims
• Lukashenko wants guarantees that Russia will defend his country if it is attacked
• The ruble continues to depreciate to one-year-ago lows
• Zelensky's office denies that he was spied on by the US
• Prigozhin: Kyiv is preparing a counteroffensive with at least 200,000 troops
• Zelensky condemned the Russian airstrikes on Palm Sunday
• In anticipation of the Ukrainian offensive, Russia is strengthening the air defense along the border
• The Russian ambassador in London: Moscow is ready for a ceasefire, but the prospect of it is unacceptable
• "Biggest leak since WikiLeaks”: Pentagon investigates fallout from leaked Ukraine plans
• Ukrainians are forced to give fingerprints for a Russian passport
• German minister wants tougher response to Russian sanctions evasion
• Ukraine has returned over 30 children taken to Russia from territories occupied by Russian forces

Kyiv is changing plans for the counteroffensive because of leaked documents, CNN claims

Ukraine has been forced to change some of its military plans ahead of an expected counter-offensive due to the leak of classified US documents, Reuters reported, citing CNN, which cited a source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Ukrainian officials told Reuters on Friday that the alleged leaked documents contained fictitious information and appeared to be a Russian disinformation campaign.

US officials are scrambling to find where the classified documents, detailing a wide range of topics from Ukraine's air defenses to Israel's Mossad spy agency, were leaked.

Reuters has not independently verified the authenticity of the documents.

Asked about CNN's information, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Ukraine's strategic plans remain unchanged, but more specific tactical plans are always subject to change.

"There are strategic tasks - they are unchangeable," he told Reuters. "But the operational and tactical scenarios are constantly improved based on the assessment of the battlefield situation, resource provision, intelligence data on the enemy's resources, etc.," added Podolyak.

"At the moment it is impossible to reassess the plans because they are being developed (now)," he added.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, told Reuters: "We are working on our own plans... We are not interested in the opinion of people who have nothing to do with this... The circle of people who have information is extremely limited."

Some experts say the source of the leak may be American.

"The focus now is on this being a US leak because many of the documents were only in US hands," Michael Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official, told Reuters in an interview.

Lukashenko wants guarantees that Russia will defend his country if it is attacked

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told Russia's defense minister on Monday that he wanted guarantees that Moscow would defend his country if attacked, the state-run BelTA news agency reported, as quoted by Reuters.

BelTA quotes Lukashenko's words to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a meeting in the Belarusian capital, Minsk.

Lukashenko said he had previously discussed the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who he said agreed with him that such security guarantees were necessary and should be formalized.

"In general, during the talks (with Putin), it sounded that in case of aggression against Belarus, the Russian Federation will defend Belarus as its own territory. This is the type of security (guarantees) we need," added Lukashenko.

Belarus, which currently hosts a contingent of Russian forces, has offered help to Moscow during its military campaign in Ukraine, which Russia calls a "special military operation".

In the earliest days of the war, Minsk allowed Moscow to use its territory to launch an ultimately unsuccessful attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

Since late last year, a flurry of military exercises and visits by high-ranking Russian officials have fueled speculation that Belarus may officially join a new attack on Ukraine.

Lukashenko has consistently denied such intentions, but said Belarus would respond to any invasion of its territory or attempts to incite unrest.

The ruble continues to depreciate to one-year ago lows

The Russian ruble continued to weaken against the dollar and euro on Monday to its lowest levels in a year, deepening last week's negative trend in view of demand for foreign currency amid sales of Russian assets by non-residents.

As of 1:45 p.m. Bulgarian time, the Russian currency fell by more than 1% to 82 rubles per US dollar, reaching its lowest level since April 20, 2022. Compared to the single European currency, the ruble depreciated by 0.78% to 89.50 per euro.

The continued depreciation of the Russian currency is the result of reduced flows of foreign currencies due to increased demand for them in Russia. Foreign currency inflows to Russia remain weak as Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine forced Russia's benchmark Urals to trade at deep discounts to Brent crude and US light crude.

Energy revenues in Russia's budget were below target levels despite increased supplies to India and China, forcing the Finance Ministry to sell foreign currency under its intervention program for the fourth straight month. In addition, deeper integration with Asian markets prompted a greater demand for foreign currency by Russian banks, while the Moscow Stock Exchange began trading in rupee and dirham futures.

Alexey Antonov, head of investment at Russian brokerage ALOR Broker, told Reuters that while the ruble continued to look weak and that its movement would largely depend on foreign currency demand, it continued to look "oversold" at the moment.

USD/RUB Chart

Zelensky's office denies that he was spied on by the US

The Pentagon and the US Department of Justice are investigating intelligence leaks after US military secrets related to Ukraine, China and the Middle East became public knowledge. The documents indicate that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was among those spied on, and his office stated that the information was fabricated and that Russia was behind it.

This is the most serious leak of confidential information since 2013, when the source of the revelations was Edward Snowden of the National Security Agency. It is being clarified whether this time too it is an insider or hacker actions. It also allows for the possibility of falsification of information circulating on the Internet weeks before the alarm was raised.

One of the files is a map that allegedly shows the state of hostilities in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the Independent writes.

In addition, there are reports that Ukraine's S-300 anti-aircraft system will soon run out of missiles.

Some of the documents bear a stamp prohibiting the information from being shared with foreign partners.

The Washington Post notes the impressive range of details the files reveal about how the US spies on both enemies and friends.

Among them are the intercepted conversations of President Volodymyr Zelensky, who in late February suggested striking Russian military units in the Rostov region with drones, as Ukraine does not have such a long-range weapon. According to the UNIAN agency, this explains American concerns about sending long-range missile systems, despite Kyiv's statements that it will not use them against Russian territory.

CNN quoted officials from Zelensky's circle about what happened - "expected but disappointing". It has also led to changes in military intentions. However, according to Mykhailo Podolyak from Zelensky's office, the documents are not authentic and do not reflect Ukraine's real plans.

Prigozhin: Kyiv is preparing a counteroffensive with at least 200,000 troops

The founder of the Russian private army “Wagner”, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that Ukraine had prepared for a counteroffensive more than 200,000 troops, and according to some sources - up to 400,000. Prigozhin stressed that this fact should not be underestimated.

Last week, the Ukrainian armed forces announced that 40,000 soldiers in 8 assault brigades were ready for an offensive.

RIA Novosti quotes Ukrainian and Western experts as saying that one of the directions of the strike is the Zaporizhzhia region with the aim of exiting to the Sea of Azov and cutting off the land corridor to Crimea.

On the Russian side, they have repeatedly stated that they are ready for any actions by the Ukrainian forces.

Zelensky condemned the Russian airstrikes on Palm Sunday

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the Russian airstrikes on Palm Sunday. A father and daughter were killed yesterday in an attack at their home in the city of Zaporizhzhia.

The victims, a 50-year-old man and his 11-year-old daughter, were killed in a Russian strike on a residential building in the city. A woman, identified as the victims' wife and mother, was rescued from the wreckage. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, over 40 attacks by Russian forces were repelled in the last 24 hours. Attempts at a Russian offensive in Bakhmut have been thwarted, there is no progress of the Russian forces in the second main direction of the fighting in the east - the town of Avdiivka.

“Every bright Christian holiday teaches us that we may not know how, but evil will lose”, Zelensky said in his traditional evening address.

"Last night, the Russian army carried out an attack on Zaporizhzhia. A residential building was hit with three people in it - a man, a woman and a little girl. Her name was Irina. He would have turned 11 this year. This is how the terrorist state celebrates Palm Sunday. This is how Russia puts itself in even greater isolation from the world and humanity," said Volodymyr Zelensky - President of Ukraine.

In anticipation of the Ukrainian offensive, Russia is strengthening the air defense along the border

Russia has repeatedly increased the number of air defense systems near the borders with Ukraine, the Russian news agency Interfax reported, citing the commander of the air defense forces, Andrei Demin.

In an interview with the departmental newspaper of the Ministry of Defense, Demin said that the S-400, S-300PM2, S-350 medium and long-range anti-aircraft missile complexes are being deployed, as well as Pantsir anti-missile complexes.

"In the border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk) and at a distance to the maximum possible range of the enemy's air defense systems, the air defense systems of the Air and Space Forces are located, as well as the assigned military air defense systems, united in one common system under a single guidance," says Demin.

In addition, more than 50 mobile radar stations are included, and 24-hour air duty of A-50U radar patrol and guidance aircraft is organized.

Meanwhile, the head of a military training center in the Nizhny Novgorod region was quoted as telling Russian military TV channel Zvezda that it had begun training army battlegroups involved in hostilities in Ukraine on the Western tanks Kyiv received from its allies.

"We know all their strengths and weaknesses and train personnel... In addition, tank crews are trained here directly for a tank battle," says Yevgeny Arifulin, adding that the Abrams, Leopard 2, Leclerc tanks and Challenger are covered.

"This work is organized on the basis of the instructions of the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Yevkurov, who set a specific task for the creation of these groups," explains Arifulin.

"In accordance with his instructions, the head of the Main Directorate of Combat Training, Colonel-General Buvaltsev and his team developed methodological recommendations and organized a methodology for implementation. And the Center for Combat Training carries them out and implements measures," Interfax quoted the chief as saying.

The Russian ambassador in London: Moscow is ready for a ceasefire, but the prospect of it is unacceptable

Russia is ready for a ceasefire with Ukraine at any time, but the prospect is "unrealistic" and unacceptable while Kyiv and the West insist on a military defeat of the Kremlin, Russian Ambassador to Britain Andrey Kelin said in an interview with the Times newspaper.

The spring offensive that Moscow has threatened is likely to take place in the coming weeks when the weather improves and the terrain becomes firmer, Andrey Kelin told the newspaper. He acknowledged China's crucial political and economic support for Moscow, but noted that Beijing's proposals for a peaceful solution were only a framework, not a detailed plan.

Kelin insists that China cannot dictate terms to Russia, nor is it the only country offering to mediate. "We have numerous mediation offers coming from the Middle East, Latin America, Turkey and others," the ambassador says, adding that even some British groups are offering to participate as mediators. Kelin points out that Ukraine is so "belligerent" that a ceasefire is not realistic.

He said Moscow remains committed to helping people in Luhansk and Donetsk lead "normal" lives and a withdrawal is not possible at this time.

If the "anti-Russian" laws implemented there cannot be ended, many people in Russia will oppose the ceasefire, Kelin says. "Unfinished business will not be accepted as a good result. War is war," the ambassador points out. He also says that the capture of Bakhmut by Russia is close, but two more cities - Sloviansk and Kramatorsk - still need to be "liberated".

Kelin, who arrived in London in 2019, said that Russian public opinion supports President Putin, but at the same time does not like wars, and the sooner the conflict is resolved peacefully, the better. He did not provide figures for Russian casualties, saying a recent estimate of 100,000 by Western sources was a "fabrication". And he quotes "neutral" experts who suggest that for every Russian killed there are 7 Ukrainian victims.

Kelin also spoke of a collapse of the Ukrainian economy, claiming that its GDP fell by 35% last year and another 10% this year. Of Ukraine's pre-conflict population of 45 million, about 19-20 million now remain, and the country is having difficulty recruiting young soldiers, the ambassador told “The Times”. He claims that, by contrast, Russia's economy has been largely unaffected by Western sanctions and that cars, planes and other Western imports are being replaced by Russian-made ones. "This gives us a chance to rebuild our industry in these areas," argued Kelin.

"Biggest leak since WikiLeaks”: Pentagon investigates fallout from leaked Ukraine plans

The US Department of Defense said on Sunday that various government departments are working together to assess the implications that leaked classified intelligence documents in recent days could have on the national security of the US and its allies and partners, Reuters reported.

"The Department of Defense continues to review and assess the authenticity of photographed documents that are circulating on social media and appear to contain sensitive and top secret information," the statement said.

Last week, copies of alleged classified documents appeared on social media, allegedly containing US military secrets related to Ukraine, China and the Middle East.

According to security experts and US government sources cited by Reuters, it is suspected that the source of the documents may be in the US. American authorities have not ruled out the possibility that pro-Russian elements were behind the leak. It is believed to be one of the most serious breaches in American security since the publication of over 700,000 documents by WikiLeaks in 2013.

Two US officials told the agency on Sunday that they did not rule out that the documents had been manipulated to mislead investigators about their origin or to spread false information that could harm US security interests.

The Washington Post reported that one of the leaked Pentagon documents detailed that Ukraine's air defenses may not be able to protect the front lines until the end of May. Another included a February assessment by the Defense Department's Joint Chiefs of Staff, which said "Ukraine's ability to provide medium-range air defenses to protect the (front lines) will be completely degraded after May 23."

The newspaper gives as an example another document that shows how quickly the ammunition for the air defense of Ukraine will be exhausted - the ammunition for the SA-11 systems will be exhausted by April 13, the US-made NASAMS - by April 15, and the SA-8 - by May. Missiles for S-300 systems are expected to fall to a critical minimum on May 2. Another chart explains that Ukrainian air defense is focusing on Russian aircraft and helicopters and ignoring smaller threats, such as drones, in light of expected shortfalls.

Such closely guarded information could be of great use to Russian forces, and Ukraine announced that President Zelensky and senior security officials met on Friday to discuss ways to prevent leaks.

Another document labeled "Top Secret" containing CIA intelligence from March 1 said Israel's Mossad intelligence agency was encouraging protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans to tighten control of the Supreme Court. To the extent that the report says that the information came through intelligence channels, it would mean that the US was spying on one of its most important allies in the Middle East.

Yesterday, Netanyahu categorically rejected the statements in the document, which he defined as "false and without any basis".

One of the leaked documents contains internal conversations between South Korean officials discussing US pressure on Seoul to provide weapons to Ukraine and South Korea's policy not to do so.

According to two American representatives who wished to remain anonymous, the documents show a situation from more than a month ago and do not contain the Pentagon's latest intelligence assessments.

Ukrainians are forced to give fingerprints for a Russian passport

The Russian occupiers continue to carry out forced passporting in the occupied territories of Ukraine. In order to obtain a Russian passport, local residents must present not only a passport of a Ukrainian citizen and a birth certificate, but also fingerprints, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced, citing the city of Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region as an example.

The invaders threatened residents of the occupied territories with forced eviction from their own homes and confiscation of property if they refused to obtain a Russian passport. In addition, citizens who do not have a Russian passport are subjected to constant searches and intimidation.

Recently, the occupiers came up with a new way to lure the locals to get a Russian passport. They are promised to be issued state housing certificates, which can allegedly be used for partial payment of housing purchased on the territory of Russia itself, UNIAN reported.

Ukrainian authorities note that obtaining a Russian document as part of mandatory passporting does not automatically result in the loss of Ukrainian citizenship.

In the last 24 hours, the Ukrainian troops have destroyed another 670 Russian occupiers. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia's losses are already about 178,820 people.

German minister wants tougher response to Russian sanctions evasion

The German government should take tougher measures against German companies that circumvent European Union sanctions against Russia by continuing to do business through third countries, said Economy Minister Robert Habeck, quoted by DPA and BTA.

"We owe this not least to the people of Ukraine," Habeck told German media group Funke.

After Russia's full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine more than 13 months ago, the EU imposed 10 packages of sanctions, including wide-ranging trade restrictions, DPA said.

When it comes to fighting illegal circumvention of these measures, Germany can learn from Denmark, Habeck said. He explained that the Danish customs authorities analyze trade flows and customs data very carefully for anomalies.

"If such anomalies appear, for example, a large amount of certain goods that were previously destined for Russia, and now it suddenly turns out that they will be delivered in almost the same amount to another third country, this is a reason for an investigation," gave an example of the German Minister of Economy.

He noted that in such a case the Danish authorities require an explanation from the responsible company.

German foreign trade law allows for such procedures, but Habeck says the government does not make sufficient use of these provisions.

In late February, Germany's economy minister, who is also vice chancellor, proposed concrete steps to improve the fight against sanctions evasion.

Habeck said the plans are currently being discussed within the government and with Berlin's EU partners.

Ukraine has returned over 30 children taken to Russia from territories occupied by Russian forces

More than 30 children were reunited with their families in Ukraine this weekend after a long operation to return them home from Russia or Russian-occupied Crimea, where they were taken from territories occupied by Russian forces during the war, Reuters reported.

Mothers hugged sons and daughters as they crossed the border from Belarus into Ukraine on Friday after a complex rescue mission that involved traveling through four countries.

Dasha Rak, a 13-year-old girl, said she and her twin sister agreed to leave the Russian-occupied city of Kherson last year because of the war and go to a holiday camp in Crimea for several weeks. But once they were in Crimea, Russian officials said the children would stay longer.

“They said we would be adopted, that we would have guardians”, she explained. “When we were first told we would be staying longer, we all started crying.”

Dasha's mother Natalia said she traveled from Ukraine to Crimea via Poland, Belarus and Moscow to pick up her daughters. The Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea has been occupied by Russia since 2014.

"It was terribly difficult, but we kept going, we didn't sleep at night, we slept sitting up," she described her journey to the camp. "It was heartbreaking to see abandoned children crying behind the fence," she added.

Kyiv estimates nearly 19,500 children have been taken to Russia or Russian-occupied Crimea since Moscow invaded in February last year, which Ukraine denounces as illegal deportations. Moscow, which controls parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, denies abducting children and says they were transported for their own safety.

"Now the fifth rescue mission is coming to an end. It was special in terms of the number of children we were able to bring back and also because of its complexity," said Mykola Kuleba, founder of the humanitarian organization Save Ukraine, which helped organizing the rescue mission.

Kuleba told a briefing in Kyiv on Saturday that all 31 children returned home said no one in Russia had tried to find their parents.

"There were children who changed their location five times in five months, some children say they lived with rats and cockroaches," he added. The children were taken to the so-called by the Russian authorities “stay in summer camps” from the occupied parts of Kharkiv and Kherson regions in Ukraine, noted Kuleba.

The Russian Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Arrest warrants

Three children - two boys and one girl attended the media briefing in Kyiv. Save Ukraine said they returned home on a previous mission last month that returned a total of 18 children.

The three said they were separated from their parents, who were pressured by Russian authorities to send their children to Russian summer camps for two weeks in the occupied parts of Kharkiv and Kherson regions.

The children said they were forced to stay at the summer camps for four to six months and were moved from one place to another during their stay.

"We were treated like animals. We were locked up in a separate building," said Vitaly, a child from the Kherson region, whose age was not made clear. He added that they were told their parents no longer wanted them.

The International Criminal Court last month issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, accusing them of abducting children from Ukraine. Moscow has made no secret of the program by which it has taken thousands of Ukrainian children from occupied areas, but presents it as a humanitarian campaign to protect orphans and children left behind in the conflict zone.

Russia rejects the ICC's accusations, saying it does not recognize the court's jurisdiction and calling the orders null and void.

Kateryna Rashevska, a lawyer with a Ukrainian non-governmental organization called the Regional Center for Human Rights, told the briefing that they were gathering evidence that Russian officials had deliberately prevented the return of the Ukrainian children.

"In every story there is a whole range of international violations and this cannot go unpunished," she stressed.

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