Survey before the Elections in Bulgaria: Intrigue for the First Place and Low Voter Turnout on April 2Elections | March 30, 2023, Thursday // 13:37| views
Parity for first and second place in the upcoming elections on April 2, according to a study by "Alpha Research" days before the vote.
GERB-SDS and "We Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) have extremely close results, within the statistical error - 25.9% and 25.4%, respectively.
There is also a tie for third and fourth place. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) has 13.8%, and "Vazrazhdane" - 13.6%.
The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) remains in fifth position with 8.2%. Next is "Bulgarian Rise", which might remain below the threshold for entering the parliament with 3.9%. "Levitsata" gets 3.1%, and "There Is Such a People" (TISP) – 2.3%.
The survey was conducted between March 25 and 29, it was published on the agency's website and was implemented with its own funds. It was conducted among 1113 adult citizens from all over Bulgaria. A certified two-stage sample was used, with a quota based on basic socio-demographic characteristics. The information was collected through a direct standardized interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.
Currently, 3.7% of voters will take advantage of the opportunity to check the box "I do not support anyone", the so-called protest vote.
"It is observed that during the campaign, GERB managed to mobilize its supporters in the country. In contrast, WCC-DB is one of the formations that has a wider electoral periphery, which has the potential to be mobilized within the next days. The intrigue will continue until the last hours of the election day," Genoveva Petrova from "Alfa Research" said on the National Television.
She believes that the photo finish will be decided by the voters who live in the capital, where the unmobilized electoral potential is. For the third and fourth places, the vote from abroad would be decisive, according to the sociologist.
Voter turnout is set to remain low - very close to what we had in the last election in October last year.
39% say they will certainly go to the polls, which is about 2.5 million voters. However, 48% are adamant that they will not vote. 13% hesitate.
According to Genoveva Petrova, it is clear that the paper ballot is not the decisive factor for voter turnout. The main reason why people tend to express reluctance to go to vote is mainly due to the distrust they have towards political parties.
Hesitating and undecided voters can certainly tip the scales. These are large enough shares of voters, and with the looming low voter turnout, they can shift the picture in different directions, Petrova said.
According to the survey, 74% of people have not changed their mind about who to vote for in the upcoming election on April 2. 15 percent have not chosen who to vote for, and 11 percent have changed their mind.
"It is entirely possible that these 15% will bring about much more significant shifts on election day itself," Petrova said.
"What we can summarize is that the expectations for this campaign were, despite the low interest, the fifth election in a row, that it would turn out to be decisive, given the starting positions of the parties. Three days before the election, however, we see that the campaign brings some electoral dynamics in support of individual parties, but not a qualitative change in the general political picture.
This is due to the fact that the majority of the parties, especially the leading parties, invested in this campaign in communicating messages aimed at hard-line voters without making more efforts to attract a wider circle of sympathizers. We still don't have a solution to the intrigue that was entangled at the beginning of the election campaign," Genoveva Petrova from "Alfa Research" also said.
"Market Links" survey for the upcoming elections.
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