Survey: GERB with a Minimal Lead over “We Continue the Change” before the Bulgarian Elections on April 2

Elections | March 23, 2023, Thursday // 05:42|  views

WCC leader Kiril Petkov (left) and GERB leader Boyko Borissov (right)

Data from the national "Nasoca" survey shows that the two leading political forces are extremely close, and with the expected turnout, it is possible that a relatively small number of votes could lead to a shift at the top.

On a direct electoral question "Which party/coalition will you vote for in the parliamentary elections on April 2 of this year?", after indicating the list of candidates for which they will vote, the "We Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria" coalition has a minimum lead of 0.6% over its main opponent GERB-SDS.

The national survey was financed and realized jointly by "Boulevard Bulgaria" and sociological agency "Nasoca". The research was conducted in the period March 7-14, 2023, among 1,200 adult Bulgarian citizens from all over the country.

For the WCC-DB coalition, 27% of all those who indicated the name of a party/coalition for which they will vote will actually vote, and for GERB-SDS – 26.4%. However, among voters who say they will definitely vote, GERB-SDS leads by a minimal margin over WCC-DB. Among those who firmly decided to vote, the GERB-SDS coalition received 24.8% of the votes, and the WCC-DB coalition was at a minimal distance of 0.7% with 24.1%.

There is also intrigue for the third place, for which DPS and "Vazrazhdane" are fighting. The two formations have similar electoral shares - DPS with 13.2% and "Vazrazhdane" with 12.2%. The intrigue is further complicated by the fact that a significant part of the vote abroad (which cannot be counted in a sociological way) is directed precisely in favor of these two political forces. In fifth position is the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with 6.2% of those who firmly decided to vote. "Bulgarian Rise" are with 4.3%. The remaining political forces currently have low chances of representation in the 49th National Assembly.

The closest to the 4 percent barrier are "Levitsata" with 3.1% and "There Is Such a People" (TISP) with 3%. The other political formations that participate in the vote collect a total of 4.4%.

3.6% of those who decided to vote indicate that on April 2 they will mark "I do not support anyone" in the integral ballot. Their share is taken into account in the calculation of voter turnout, but does not participate in the distribution of election results and therefore is not presented in the graph with electoral attitudes. The option "I do not support anyone" is preferred more often by men, by residents of the capital, as well as by people who, in principle, hesitate whether to vote at all.

The current national survey was financed and implemented jointly by "Boulevard Bulgaria" and sociological agency "Nasoca". The research was conducted in the period March 7-14, 2023, among 1,200 adult Bulgarian citizens from all over the country.

Quota sampling implemented in several steps was used. Quotas are calculated based on data from the 2021 census. Respondents are distributed in proportion to the size of the settlements, in nests of approximately equal volume. Settlements are typologically divided into three categories: regional centers, other towns and villages. The settlements and the number of nests in them are determined, in proportion to the number of voters (aged +18). In the sample, the district centers are first fixed, and then the small towns and villages in the respective district are randomly selected. Inside each nest, the gender-age distribution is balanced, according to the NSI data from the last census. The sample thus constructed reproduces the structure of the population by place of residence, sex and age.

The information was collected through a direct standardized face-to-face interview (PAPI) at the homes of the interviewees.

"Nasoca" conducts its national surveys on the territory of Bulgaria. The figures do not include the out-of-state vote.

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Tags: elections, vote, We continue the change, GERB


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