Day 357 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Russia has Detained at least 6,000 Ukrainian Children according to the US

@The Moscow Times

Here are the highlights of events related to the war in Ukraine over the past 24 hours:

Support for aid to Ukraine is waning among Americans

Support among Americans for providing arms and direct economic aid to Ukraine has declined as the first anniversary of the Russian invasion approaches, according to a new survey by the Associated Press - NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Forty-eight percent say they approve of the US sending arms to Ukraine, while 29 percent oppose and 22 percent say they have no opinion on the matter. In May 2022, less than three months after the war began, 60% of Americans said they supported sending weapons to Ukraine.

Americans are almost evenly split on sending government funds directly to Ukraine, with 37% in favor, 38% opposed and 23% undecided.

The signs of waning support for Ukraine come as President Joe Biden prepares to visit Poland next week to mark the first anniversary of Europe's biggest conflict since World War II.

“I sympathize with Ukraine's situation, but I think we have to take care of priorities here at home first,” said Republican Joe Hernandez, 44, of Rocklin, California.

He added that it is difficult to support generous US military spending and economic support for Ukraine when many American communities do not have the means to deal with the effects of migrants entering the US through the southern border, the homeless crisis in his state and others.

Biden has repeatedly said that the United States will help Ukraine "as long as necessary" to repel the Russian invasion, which began on February 24 last year.

In private conversations, administration officials are warning Ukrainian officials that there is a limit to the patience of a deeply divided Congress, and the American public, for spending on a war with no clear end in sight. In 2022, Congress approved about $113 billion in economic, humanitarian and military spending.

The survey found that 19% of Americans are confident in Biden's ability to handle the situation in Ukraine, 37% say they are not completely convinced, and 43% have almost no confidence in him.

Opinions on Biden's handling of the war are largely divided along party lines. Among Democrats, 40% say they have a lot of confidence in Biden to handle the situation, 50% have some confidence, and 9% have almost no confidence. Among Republicans, 76% say they have almost no confidence. These results were largely unchanged from last May.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, before winning the leadership post, vowed that Republicans would not write a "blank check" on Ukraine once in office.

A majority of Americans, 63 percent, still support imposing economic sanctions on Russia, the survey found, although that percentage is also down from 71 percent who said so in May 2022.

Limiting the damage to the US economy is more important than sanctioning Russia, even if that means sanctions are less effective, according to 59% of respondents.

Almost a year ago, in March 2022, the situation was reversed: 55% thought it was a higher priority to effectively sanction Russia, even if doing so harmed the US economy.

Overall, the survey shows that about a quarter of Americans, 26 percent, now say the U.S. should have a major role in the situation, down from 40 percent in March 2022. Still, 49 percent think the US should play secondary role, and only 24% - that they should not have any role.

Since last March, the percentage of Democrats who think the country should have a major role has fallen slightly from 48% to 40%, while among Republicans it has fallen from 35% to 17%.

Democrats also remain more likely than Republicans to support imposing economic sanctions on Russia (75% vs. 60%), accepting refugees from Ukraine (73% vs. 42%), and providing weapons to Ukraine (63% vs. 39%). and sending state funds to Ukraine (59% vs. 21%). Support is down slightly among both Democrats and Republicans from last May.

The survey was conducted among 1,068 people between January 26 and 30.

US: Russia has detained at least 6,000 Ukrainian children

Russia has detained at least 6,000 Ukrainian children - possibly many more - in facilities in Russian-controlled Crimea and other Moscow-occupied territories, the main purpose of which is political re-education, according to a US-backed report published on Tuesday.

The report states that researchers at Yale University have identified at least 43 camps and other facilities holding Ukrainian children that are part of a "large-scale systematic network" run by Moscow since its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The children are those Russia considers orphans and others who were in the care of Ukrainian state institutions before the invasion, as well as children whose custody is unclear or uncertain because of the war, the report said.

"The primary purpose of the camp facilities we found appears to be political re-education," Nathaniel Raymond, one of the researchers, told reporters at a briefing.

Some of the children went through the system and were adopted by Russian families or moved to foster families in Russia, the report said.

The youngest child identified in the Russian program was just four months old, and some military training camps have identified children as young as 14, Raymond said, adding that researchers found no evidence that these children - were later used in combat.

The Russian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.

Moscow denies forcibly relocating Ukrainians.

The report is the latest produced by Yale University's College of Humanitarian Studies and Public Health as part of a State Department-backed project examining human rights abuses and war crimes allegedly committed by Russia since the invasion of Ukraine.

"What is documented in this report is a clear violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention" - the agreement that protects the civilian population during wartime, Raymond said. According to him, this could also be evidence that Russia committed genocide during its war in Ukraine, as the transfer of children with the aim of changing, altering or eliminating national identity could constitute a compound act of the crime of genocide.

Ukrainian prosecutors said they were investigating allegations of forced deportation of children as part of efforts to indict Russia for genocide.

"This network stretches from one end of Russia to the other," Raymond said, adding that researchers believe the number of facilities where Ukrainian children are held exceeds 43.

The system of camps and the adoption by Russian families of Ukrainian children taken from their homeland "appears to have been authorized and coordinated at the highest levels of the Russian government," the report said, starting with President Vladimir Putin and ending with local employees.

ISW: Bakhmut’s defense creates conditions for the VSU counteroffensive

The continued defense of Bakhmut could create favorable conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

In their new report, they state that Ukraine's decision to defend Bakhmut despite losses was a strategically sound move.

"Western reports indicate that the West remains unsettled by Ukraine's determination to hold Bakhmut. The Washington Post also reported that U.S. defense experts believe Ukrainian forces cannot simultaneously secure Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive, and called Ukraine to prioritize spring counteroffensive over defense of Bakhmut. ISW continues to believe that Ukraine's decision to defend Bakhmut is likely to be a strategically sound move, despite the losses it will incur," the report said.

Analysts stress that the defensive operation has forced the Russians to move most of the Wagner Group there and commit valuable Russian airborne forces.

"Ukraine's defense of Bakhmut has weakened significant Russian forces and is likely to create favorable conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive. If Russian forces capture Bakhmut without significant Ukrainian resistance, they could hope to expand operations so that Ukraine can hastily built up defensive positions on less favorable terrain. So Ukraine's defense of Bakhmut and the attempt to create conditions for a counteroffensive are probably complementary rather than mutually exclusive actions," experts say.

On the eve of the first anniversary of the full-scale war in Ukraine, the Russian Federation continues its efforts to occupy the entire Donetsk region. In particular, Bakhmut, which for many months remained one of the hottest areas on the front, became important from a media point of view for the Russians. According to the Ukrainian military, the Russians here are fighting like zombies and trying to break through at breakneck speed.

However, according to British intelligence, the Russian Federation has not been able to concentrate enough forces to break through the Ukrainian front near Bakhmut. The head of PMC "Wagner", which played a key role in the Russian operation to capture Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin, admits that they will not succeed in capturing the city.

In January, German intelligence said that the success of the occupiers at Bakhmut could turn into a real disaster for Ukraine, as it would allow the Russians to move further into the Donetsk region. At the same time, the White House is inclined to believe that the possible loss of Bakhmut will not have a strategic impact on the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense in Moscow announced that Russian troops managed to break through part of the defense of Ukrainian forces in the Luhansk region.

"In the course of the offensive, the Ukrainian troops irregularly retreated to a distance of up to three kilometers from the lines previously occupied by them," the department said on its channel on Telegram. "Even the enemy's stronger second line of defense was unable to prevent the Russian servicemen from breaking through."

Reuters notes that the information could not be independently verified.

The ministry did not specify on which part of the front in Luhansk region the offensive was launched.

A Russian student faces 10 years in prison for posting on Instagram

A Russian student is threatened with up to 10 years in prison because of her post on "Instagram" in connection with the war in Ukraine, the BBC reported.

Olesya Krivtsova is under house arrest in the northern city of Arkhangelsk. The 20-year-old student at a local university has an electronic bracelet on her leg and police can track her.

Olesya's offense is that she shared posts against the war in Ukraine on "Instagram", a social network that was declared extremist by the Russian authorities after the invasion of the neighboring country in February last year. One of the publications specifically concerned the explosion of the Crimean bridge in October.

"I shared on Instagram a story about the bridge, which talks about how happy Ukrainians are about what happened," the Russian student told the BBC.

Olesya also published a post of her friend regarding the war. And then the drama began, according to the BBC.

"I was on the phone with my mother when I heard the front door open. Many policemen came in. They took my phone and ordered me to lie on the floor," the 20-year-old student recalled.

Olesya was accused of justifying terrorism and discrediting the Russian armed forces. She could be sentenced to up to 10 years in prison.

Under the terms of her house arrest, the young woman is not allowed to talk on the phone or access the Internet.

The Russian student has a tattoo on her right leg of President Vladimir Putin as a spider, with the Orwellian inscription: "Big Brother is watching you".

However, Olesya was not noticed by "Big Brother", and the police, as it seems, acted on a report from her fellow students, notes the BBC.

A friend showed the young woman a group chat in which colleagues from the university criticized her behavior. "Report her is a patriot's duty," read one of the comments.

The chat people were subsequently mentioned in court as prosecution witnesses.

It has been a year since the Kremlin ordered the so-called special military operation in Ukraine, as it calls the full-scale military invasion of the neighboring country, the BBC points out. Just weeks after the attack, President Putin called on the Russian public to separate "true patriots from scum and traitors."

Since then, there have been reports across Russia of Soviet-style denunciations of critics of the war. Among them are cases where students betray their professors, as well as denunciations against colleagues.

Russian authorities expect full, decisive support for the offensive in Ukraine, and public criticism, including sharing foreign posts on social networks, is dangerous.

The patriotic message is compelling. On the streets of Arkhangelsk, there is not much sympathy for Russians tried for anti-war comments, notes the BBC, quoted by BTA.

Putin traveled in an armored train on a secret railway network, according to an investigation

Russian President Vladimir Putin uses a specially made armored train for his official trips, and a secret railway network, including stations, has been run to his residences, the investigative media "Project", cited by the Russian edition of Radio Free Europe, claims.

According to the article, one such secret station and several railway lines were built on the territory of the Valdai National Park in the northwestern Novgorod region, near the presidential residence located there.

The station was opened by "Project" correspondents in the autumn of last year. It has a helipad and lines built in 2019 lead to it, the investigative media claims.

Satellite images included in the material show an alleged train station built in 2015 in Novo Ogarevo, Moscow Oblast, about 400 meters from Putin's residence. According to the article, this station was hidden behind a high fence, on which security cameras were placed every 10 meters.

"Project" writes that in 2017, a platform and a new railway line appeared next to the residence of the Russian president "Bocharov Ruchey" in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, which was also hidden by a fence from the railway lines on which the city railway runs. Another investigative media outlet, “Dossier”, published an article yesterday that also claimed that Putin prefers to travel by a train that was specially made for him in 2015. This train is armored, and the Russian president has started using it in the second half of 2021, when his country was preparing to invade Ukraine, the media said.

According to the “Dossier”, Putin began using trains instead of planes to avoid possible tracking of his flights, as trains are much more difficult to track. The investigative media also claimed that "the train schedule is adjusted according to Putin's plans so that his train can run at maximum speed, without stops."

Also yesterday, the “SOTA” news site announced that it has information on the renovation of an abandoned train station in Moscow to be used for the needs of the president and other high-ranking representatives of the Russian authorities.

The material says the station was restored just weeks before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine at the end of February last year.

Prigozhin confirmed that he created the "troll factory" that meddled in the US election according to Washington

The founder of the private military company "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed that he is the creator, and for a long time he managed, the so-called Internet Research Agency.

This is the same one that gained fame in the West and for a while in Russia, a "troll factory", later turned into a media holding with very popular publications. The organization was sanctioned by the United States, along with Prigozhin for alleged interference in the 2016 presidential election won by Donald Trump.

Several years ago, special counsel Robert Mueller, appointed in the United States to investigate possible Russian interference, accused the Internet Research Agency and Prigozhin of meddling in the vote through fake social media accounts. Various Russian media - such as "Novaya Gazeta", and earlier also RBC, over the years wrote both about employees of the "troll factory" engaged in this activity, and about its connections with Prigozhin.

"I invented it, I created it"

Prigozhin - who only half a year ago confirmed after a long silence that he was behind "Wagner", Russia's most famous private army - answered journalists from the magazine "Spiegel", and his comments were distributed by his press office.

"I was never just a funder of the Internet Research Agency. I invented it, I created it, I managed it for a long time. It was created to protect the Russian information space from simple aggressive propaganda of anti-Russian theses by the West," he says.

And for the Internet Research Agency - as it once did for Wagner - the Prigozhin-owned Concorde Group denied that he or the group had anything to do with "activities aimed at interfering in US elections".

Prigozhin had long been in the shadows, but began to publicly comment on the war and the trials in Russian society months after Russia invaded Ukraine and Wagner established himself as the leading force in the battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian soldiers are training with German Leopard 2 tanks

Intensive training of Ukrainian soldiers with the German Leopard 2 tanks began on Monday at the military training ground in the city of Münster. Training continues for 10 hours a day.

A defense ministry spokesman in Berlin said the training was scheduled to be completed by the end of March to coincide with the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

According to the German magazine "Spiegel", the training will last about 6-8 weeks.

Moscow's decades-old gas ties with Europe lie in ruins

The gas trade with Europe, carefully crafted for decades as the main source of income for the Kremlin, is unlikely to ever recover from the devastating consequences of Moscow's war in Ukraine.

Since Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine began almost a year ago, a combination of Western sanctions and Russia's decision to cut supplies to the continent has drastically reduced the country's energy exports.

Russia's gas trade with Europe is based on thousands of kilometers of pipelines starting in Siberia and reaching Germany and beyond. Until last year, they managed to trap Western buyers into long-term supply relationships.

"Of course, the loss of the European market is a very serious test for Russia in the gas aspect," Yuriy Shafranik, Russia's minister of fuels from 1993 to 1996, admitted to Reuters.

In contrast to Shafranik's diplomacy, one of the former Gazprom directors, who wished to remain anonymous, is much more direct.

"The work of hundreds of people who built the export system over decades has now been flushed down the toilet," he says.

Unlike the previous ones, the current employees think that everything is fine and there will be no change in the working regimes.

"Nothing has changed for us. We had a salary increase twice last year," said one of them, who, however, again wished to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to speak to the media. All we know about him is that he's from Novi Urengoy, an Arctic city often called the "gas capital" of Russia because it was built to serve the largest gas fields.

State-owned gas export giant Gazprom, which has offices there, was created at the end of the Soviet Union in 1989 under the then Ministry of Gas Industry, headed by Viktor Chernomyrdin.

"Chernomyrdin never allowed anyone to poke their nose into Gazprom. It was a state within a state, and to some extent it remains so," says Yuriy Shafranik.

This can be confirmed with particular force for the time after the start of the war on February 24 of last year. Like many other Russian companies, Gazprom has stopped disclosing details of its financial results. According to Reuters estimates based on export charges and data on export volumes, the company's revenue from overseas sales fell to $3.4 billion in January from $6.3 billion in the same period last year.

The numbers, combined with import forecasts and average gas prices, suggest that Gazprom's export earnings will almost halve this year, widening the budget deficit, which in January alone stood at $25 billion. Gas exports have already halved compared to last year and are currently at the level of the sub-Soviet bottom, and the downward trend continues. According to Ursula von der Leyen, Russia has cut 80% of its gas supplies to the EU in the last 8 months.

The result - Russia has supplied only 7.5% of the gas consumption in Europe for 2022. A year ago this number was 40%.

That Gazprom did not hope for such a development has been clear for a long time. Back in 2019, Elena Burmistrova - head of the company's export department, said at an industry event in Vienna in 2019 that the company's record high export since the collapse of the Soviet Union was more than 200 billion cubic meters, achieved in 2019 d. She called this fact "the new reality". For comparison - in 2022 this export has collapsed to 100 billion cubic meters.

To all this must be added the undermined infrastructural possibility for exports after the explosions along the Nord Stream pipeline system. It is still not clear who is responsible for them, but the West and Russia keep blaming each other.

After all, Putin is currently making desperate attempts to diversify his gas markets. We must admit that attempts were made even before the war, but now this policy is beginning to gain momentum. In October, the idea of a gas hub in Turkey to divert Russian gas flows from the Baltic Sea and northwestern Europe was discussed. Russia is seeking to increase its pipeline gas sales to China, the world's biggest energy consumer and biggest buyer of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and coal.

Deliveries began through the Power of Siberia pipeline in late 2019, and Russia aims to raise annual exports to around 38 billion cubic meters by 2025. Moscow has an agreement with Beijing for another 10 billion cubic meters a year from the still-unbuilt pipeline to Sakhalin Island, and plans are being developed for Power of Siberia 2, which in theory would add another 50 billion cubic meters. The question here is whether China will buy at the same prices or force Putin to sell cheaper.

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