The US Midterms are a Referendum on Trump

The upcoming US midterm elections on 8 November will be a referendum on Donald Trump, whether traditional Republicans like it or not.

In September, Trump and company launched a new super PAC called Maga Inc. It's Trump's way to bet on primaries, as well as in elections facing Democrats.

Trump knows how to pick his horses. The Trump effect will be tested on 8 November. Trump is backing and endorsing Republicans all over the map. His candidates win most of the time, as a BBC study demonstrates in numbers, calling Trump's bids an "extraordinary endorsement spree".

The spotlight in the upcoming elections is on Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, a New York Republican, who emerged strong as the Republican Party's new No 3, after Donald Trump dethroned in a spectacular way Congresswoman Liz Cheney who was a staunch Trump critic over the Capitol riots, and in general.

Trump himself calls Elise Stefanik "one of my killers" as his biggest defender on the House Intelligence Committee during the impeachment. Stefanik accepted Trumpism a while ago and will survive the midterms.

The Republicans' survival motto at the moment can be summed up as "Trump or perish". 

It's a consensus among Republicans that Trump should wait for the midterms to pass before announcing his bid for the Presidency and his 2024 campaign. The Republicans are about to snatch control over both the House and the Senate in a red wave. One month is left to see by what margins exactly they will turn things around.

Iveta Cherneva, author and analyst 

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