Day 222 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Breakthrough in Kherson, Both Sides accuse each other of Shelling

@mhmck, Twitter

Here are the highlights of events related to the war in Ukraine over the past 24 hours:

Ukraine reported Russian shelling on Zaporizhzhia, Russia reported Ukrainian shelling on Donetsk

Ukrainian armed forces are in full control of the key city of Lyman, Kyiv said. The United States reaffirmed its support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

New opportunities are opening up for the Ukrainian army to develop the counteroffensive to liberate the occupied territories, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said:

"The story of the liberation of Lyman in the Donetsk region is now the most popular in the media. However, the successes of our soldiers are not limited to this city."

Zelensky condemned the detention of the director of the Zaporizhzhia NPP by a Russian patrol on Friday as "another example of a blatant act of Russian terror."

According to Ukrainian sources, Russian forces shelled the city of Zaporizhzhia this morning. Injuries and property damage were reported. The Russian side claims Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk.

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan expressed Washington's support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in a meeting in Turkey with Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to the Ukrainian president. The two discussed the situation with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the interaction between Kyiv and the UN in food exports.

The wife of the Ukrainian president, Olena Zelenska, participated in a solemn ceremony in Istanbul to launch the corvette, built in Turkey, especially for the Ukrainian army.

Russians fired the military commissar of the Khabarovsk region - half of the mobilized did not meet standards

The military commissar of the Khabarovsk Region, Yuriy Laiko, was fired on Monday morning for failing to complete the tasks of partial mobilization in the region, Governor Mikhail Degtyarev announced, by whose order the military man was released. According to Degtyarev, half of those mobilized by the military commandant's office in the city were not good enough for the fulfillment of the goals and tasks of the Special Military Operation and were sent back to their homes.

In his telegram channel, the governor declared that the removal of the military commissar "will not at all affect the implementation of the tasks that the president has set before us."

The specific reasons for Laiko's dismissal were not given. Telling about the progress of the partial mobilization in the Khabarovsk region, Degtyarev reports that several thousand people received call-ups and reported to the military districts, but "of them, approximately half were returned home as not meeting the selection criteria for entering military service under contract".

"Partial mobilization affects only those categories of persons that are approved by the Ministry of Defense and the President," said Degtyarev.

On September 30, the Khabarovsk branch of the All-Russian People's Front reported that a man was mobilized with a summons, who was being taken into account in the psychiatric hospital, with the diagnosis of "schizophrenia". The man was taken to a military unit in the city of Bikin to prepare for participation in the war in Ukraine, but three days later he was returned to Khabarovsk for a medical examination.

Ex-CIA chief: If Russia uses nuclear weapons, the US will destroy its military

The United States and its allies will destroy Russian troops and equipment in Ukraine and sink its Black Sea fleet if Russian President Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons.

The warning came from Gen. David Petraeus, former director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The topic has sparked debate, especially after Dmitry Medvedev said the West would do nothing even in the face of a Russian nuclear strike. The US threatened Russia with "catastrophic consequences".

He denied to ABC News that he had spoken with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan about the likely US response if President Vladimir Putin followed through on his hint to use nuclear weapons. Putin made it when announcing a partial military mobilization because of the war in Ukraine.

Petraeus spoke of a "collective effort" that would "eliminate any Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea."

Although an attack against Ukraine cannot trigger Art. 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (according to which an attack on one country of the alliance is an attack on the others as well), since Kyiv is not in NATO, but a response from the alliance would be a logical step in such a situation.

“The battlefield reality he faces is, I believe, irreversible. No amount of even veiled nuclear threats can actually get him out of this particular situation,” said the former director of the CIA

In his words, the possibility of radiation reaching NATO countries under the umbrella of Article 5 could perhaps be interpreted as an attack on a NATO member; this is also a possible intervention scenario. At the same time, Petraeus called for refraining from nuclear escalation at a time when he said Putin was "desperate".

Over the weekend, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called for the use of nuclear weapons after Ukrainian forces recaptured the strategic town of Lyman in the Donetsk region.

The Ukrainian army is regaining control over areas on the west bank of the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine

The Ukrainian army is regaining control over settlements on the western bank of the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine, Reuters reports, specifying that there is no clarity on the scale of the offensive, as Kyiv has remained completely silent on the situation in the area.

Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian tanks have advanced tens of kilometers. Thus they can cut off the supply lines of the Russian units on the second major front line. The Russian army has repelled a Ukrainian attack in the Kherson region and is fully in control of the situation, said the deputy head of the pro-Russian occupation administration Kiril Stremousov.

Minutes ago, the head of the pro-Russian administration of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, admitted on Russian state television that Ukrainian forces had made a breakthrough and were now in control of several settlements in the region.

The IEA predicts a tough winter for gas supplies

This year's winter gas season begins with extremely high levels of natural gas prices and volatility caused by unprecedented supply uncertainty as Russia sharply limits its pipeline supplies to Europe. The result is significant pressure on the market for alternative sources of supply. Security of supply has become a top priority in Europe and other importing regions, as a complete disruption of Russian flows to Europe cannot be ruled out, which will create additional stress and reduce demand for all competing LNG importers. This is what the International Energy Agency (IEA) wrote in its report for the fourth quarter of 2022.

The gas crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to a series of market corrections. European buyers sharply increased their orders for LNG, leading to a tightening of the market and reduced demand in various importing regions. This has also had a visible impact on LNG contracting behavior, with a return to more traditional features such as contracts with a fixed destination and longer duration.

The European Union, whose member states are directly exposed to the threat of further supply cuts, has adopted a number of measures to increase security of supply and market resilience ahead of the coming winter.

The document also states that the quarterly report includes the IEA's annual global gas security review and an analysis of the short-term development of the gas market until 2023.

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