Times: Moscow has made a Decision to Attack MoldovaRussia | May 2, 2022, Monday // 12:02| views
Military parade in Tiraspol, Transnistria (2020) @Wikimedia Commons
Moscow is already paving the way for the conquest of Moldova, the British Times writes, adding that the invasion of the former Soviet republic could take place on May 9. According to the British edition on May 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin may declare recognition of the independence of the Transnistrian Moldovan Republic. This would lead to the realization of the "Donbas scenario" and would be an immediate threat to the territorial integrity of Moldova.
According to the Ukrainian intelligence sources quoted by the Times, there are a number of signals that indicate that in the near future there may be an attack on the former Soviet republic, whose army has only 3,250 servicemen.
From now on, there is activity at the airport in Tiraspol, the capital of the internationally unrecognized Transnistrian Republic. It is possible that the Russians are trying to transfer their troops on board IL-86 planes taking off from occupied Crimea. At the same time, riots and protests are to be organized in the capital, Chisinau.
The British newspaper writes that this information does not coincide with the assessments of the Western intelligence services, which believe that Russia does not have enough capabilities to reach this route safely without the risk of their planes being shot down in the Odessa region by Ukrainian air defenses. In order to transfer ammunition and troops, Russia would have to create a land corridor, for which it would face fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces from the partially occupied Kherson region and part of the Mykolaiv and Odessa regions.
According to the Times, the invasion of Moldova could take place on May 9, when Russia celebrates Victory Day. "We believe the Kremlin has already decided to attack Moldova," an anonymous source was quoted as saying by the Times. According to the interlocutor of the British edition, if this scenario takes place, a second front will open, which would be an existential danger for Ukraine, as it will allow the Russian army to attack Ukraine from the West, including attacking the Black Sea port of Odessa.
According to British analysts, by implementing this scenario, Russia would like to achieve three goals. To divert the attention of some Ukrainian forces on the southwestern flank, weaken the pro-European policy of the Moldovan government and threaten the West, suggesting that support for Ukraine could lead to further destabilization, including in the Balkans.
Several incidents have been reported in the past week, including an attack on the building of the local security service and the Mayak TV and Radio Tower. The Times also described a "special edition" report in a Transnistrian newspaper on May 2, which described "terrorist acts" and issued an appeal, allegedly to the population, sent to President Putin asking for intervention. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the series of explosions in Tiraspol was staged by Russian security forces.
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