Gallup Poll for Elections: GERB leads in front of BSP, "We Continue the Change" with Biggest Reserve

Elections | November 6, 2021, Saturday // 11:06|  views

Gallup International

GERB leads with a clear difference in the parliamentary elections, "We Continue the Change" has the biggest reserve, because it is the first choice of the people who have decided to vote, but are still hesitant about for whom.

The data are from a Gallup International Balkan survey for, conducted face-to-face, among 1,081 adult Bulgarians, in the period October 23-31.

If the parliamentary elections were held at the end of October, the electoral attitudes would look like this: 24.2% of voters would vote for GERB-SDS, 15.7% for BSP, 13.7% for "We Continue the Change", "There Is Such People" - 11.3%, for DPS - 11.1%, for "Democratic Bulgaria" - 9.8%.

Followed by "Vazrazhdanel" with 3.3%, "Stand up.BG! We are coming! ”- 3.1% and IMRO with 2.3%. 5.5% would vote for other political formations.

GERB continues to be the leader, and there is an interesting battle for the second place - between BSP and "We Continue the Change". BSP is leading so far, but it is unclear how the situation with covid and machine voting will affect the older electorate.


The hesitant

"We Continue the Change" are best represented among the hesitant and their prospects depend on the degree of mobilization.

58.2% say they will definitely vote for the National Assembly, another 20% say they will rather vote. Of those 78% who want to vote, about a fifth have not yet chosen which party to vote for.

The Gallup breakdown is quite interesting for the hesitant. "We Continue the Change" leads with a big difference before "Democratic Bulgaria" - 24.1 against 15.6 percent. "There Is Such a People" and GERB are vying for third place with 13.5 and 13.4%. DPS is fourth, and BSP is only the fifth choice of the hesitant with 5.7 percent.


Will we have a first round president?

If the presidential and vice-presidential elections were in the last week of October, 47.6% of voters would vote for Rumen Radev, 25.1% for Anastas Gerdjikov, 8.5% for Mustafa Karadayi and 5.7% for Lozan Panov, 3.3%, for Kostadin Kostadinov. Among the other candidates are the names of Milen Mihov - 1.4% and Luna Yordanova - 1.1%. 2.5% would vote for "I do not support anyone" and 4.8% for other candidates.

Rumen Radev keeps a visible distance from the other candidates. It seems that the situation around the green certificates and other problems could send the elections in the second round, where, according to a snapshot, Radev would meet Anastas Gerdjikov. It depends on the last week of the campaign whether the support for Radev will be below or above the edge for a possible victory in the first round.

The activity of the presidential elections will be very close to the parliamentary ones. Firmly determined to vote for president - 57.1% (against 58.2% for parliament). About a fifth are hesitant, but they would rather vote.

Of course, these are shares not on the basis of the formal electoral list, but on the basis of the people with voting rights actually residing in Bulgaria - which are hardly more than 5.5 million, Gallup clarifies. Of course, there is declarativeness in the activity data, but, with all reservations, they show a potential vote of about 3.2 million people. Whether it will approach the threshold of about 3.4 million (which is one of the conditions for no runoff according to the formal voter list) depends on the last week of the campaign. It also depends on the current situation with covid as of November 14.

The sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The survey was conducted between October 23 and 31, among 1,081 people using the face-to-face method. The absolute maximum error is ± 3.0% at 50% shares. 1% of the total sample is equal to about 55 thousand people.


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Tags: elections, president, Rumen Radev, GERB, We continue the change


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