Bulgaria May Need New Lockdown as of 15 October - Mathematical modeling prompts

Health | September 23, 2021, Thursday // 12:39|  views

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45% of Bulgarians say that they have not vaccinated themselves and do not intend to do so. Meanwhile, doctors have warned that only 26% of Covid beds in Sofia are vacant.

The mathematician from BAS Prof. Ognyan Kunchev believes that a new lockdown will have to be imposed in Bulgaria soon.

Inthe foreseeable future, a new lockdown will be needed, perhaps sometime by October 15. Then we'll have about 7,000 infected per day. The peak will be in November-December if we don't control anything," he said, defending the view that we should go from lockdown to lockdown until the situation has improved significantly.

In the studio of Bulgaria ON AIR, the mathematician showed a char twith the number of infected month by month since the beginning of the pandemic. There is a spike in infected on a daily basis in September-October 2020 and then a controlled decline.

"From November, the number of infected began to slightly decrease, because on October 25, all nightlife establishments were closed. From December 10-15, icase load plummeted. What this is due to - a full lockdown from November 29. They clpsed schools, kindergartens... It's up to us, there're no tricks. We begin to get on February 10-15. On February 1, they let the children go to kindergartens and schools," explained Prof . Kunchev.

In July-August 2021, the number of infected begins to alarmingly rise. According to Prof . Kunchev the reason is the "optimal conditions for the spread of the virus" on our Black Sea coast.

 "The Delta varaint proved to be much more aggressive. Research by Chinese scientists has shown that 1,200 times more viruses are in the upper respiratory tract sick with the Delta variant. We went to the sea and became infected. Now the children have gone to school and there is no way this will not send up the number of infected," he said. In his words, control should consist of masks and distancing, but this can not happen entirely with children at school. The mathematician cited a study in England that showed that 40% of children had alreadyhad some form of coronavirus. About half a million Bulgarians have officially met with the coronavirus. According to they areKunchev, however, they number about 2 million.


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Tags: Bulgaria, new lockdown, coronavirus control, mid-October


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