Prof Vitanov: Peak of Forth Covid-19 Wave in Bulgaria Falls on October, Sofia is in Red Zone on Morbidity Map on

Health | September 20, 2021, Monday // 12:29|  views


 The second peak of the fourth wave is expected in October. The basic reproduction number is 0.93 - 100 people who recover from COVID-19 leave behind 93 infected,stated on bTVProfessor of Mathematics Nikolay Vitanov,.

In his words, currently we have a slight decrease in Covid-19 incidence rate.

"We have already lost 20,000 people, as if we had lost a war. The number of fatlities will continue to rise," he added.

 Vitanov presented a morbidity forecast on a  14-day basiscompared to 24.09, where the only areas that are not in the "red zone" as of yet would be be Pleven, Dobrich, Smolyan and Kardzhali. There are two types of latent morbidity: "Last year these were the asymptomtomatic patients, this year a new phenomenon appeared. People with symptoms that do not register, especially the young. It manifested itself in late August. In the summer, the percentage of those who got sick rose because many people were arriving from abroad, infected,as well as such tourists. It's normal that  the wave is surging now," he says.

The mathematician explained that he receives death threats.

In his words, the maximum reproductive numberduring the second peak of the fourth wave then may be between 2-2.20.


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Tags: Bulgaria, COVID-19, peak fourth wave, mathematical model


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