GERB Would Win if elections Were Now - Opinion Poll

The formerly ruling GERB party would win if early elections were held now, as support for There Is Such a People (TISP), the largest parliamentary force, slipped by about 5 percentage points in a month, according to an August 13-22 nationally representative survey among 1,055 people aged 18 or over. It was financed and conducted by bTV and Market Links.

GERB would win 15.7 per cent of the votes of all respondents (21.6 per cent of those who would vote), followed by Democratic Bulgaria with 11.3 per cent of the votes of all respondents (16.5 per cent of those voting), TISP 14.2 per cent of all respondents (15.7 per cent of those voting), the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 12.5 per cent of all respondents (15.7 per cent of those voting), the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 10.7 per cent of all respondents (11 per cent of those voting), and Rise Up BG! Here We Come! 4.1 per cent of all respondents (4.5 per cent of those voting).

Nevertheless, the margin between TISP, Democratic Bulgaria and the Bulgarian Socialist Party is within the statistical deviation, meaning that each of them could place second if elections were held now, the analysts said.

Rise Up! have retained most of their support base but are still close to the 4 per cent electoral threshold. Vazrazhdane [Revival] is the new candidate for winning seats in the next parliament, with 3.1 per cent support of all respondents (4.3 per cent of those voting). It is backed both by sympathizers of TISP and of what were known as the patriotic parties, which were part of the government coalition led by GERB until April 4.

Market Links commented that electoral support for the political forces has shifted considerably within just a month, which could lead to an even more fragmented configuration in the next parliament.++

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