Survey: GERB Win If Early Elections Are Today, Democratic Bulgaria Is on Uptrend

GERB could be first political force, caretaker government improves its rating.

The former ruling GERB party would win if early elections were held now, as support for There Is Such a People (TISP), the largest parliamentary force, slipped by about 5 percentage points in a month, according to an August 13-22 nationally representative survey among 1,055 people aged 18 or over. It was financed and conducted by bTV and Market Links.

GERB would win 15.7 per cent of the votes of all respondents (21.6 per cent of those who would vote), followed by Democratic Bulgaria with 11.3 per cent of the votes of all respondents (16.5 per cent of those voting), TISP 14.2 per cent of all respondents (15.7 per cent of those voting), the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 12.5 per cent of all respondents (15.7 per cent of those voting), the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 10.7 per cent of all respondents (11 per cent of those voting), and Rise Up BG! Here We Come! 4.1 per cent of all respondents (4.5 per cent of those voting).

Nevertheless, the margin between TISP, Democratic Bulgaria and the Bulgarian Socialist Party is within the statistical deviation, meaning that each of them could place second if elections were held now, the analysts said.

"Rise Up, Bulgaria We Come!" have retained most of their support base but are still close to the 4 per cent electoral threshold.

Nationalist Vazrazhdane [Revival] is the new candidate for winning seats in the next parliament, with 3.1 per cent support of all respondents (4.3 per cent of those voting). It is backed both by sympathizers of TISP and of what were known as the patriotic parties.

Market Links commented that electoral support for the political forces has shifted considerably within just a month, which could lead to an even more fragmented configuration in the next parliament.


Of the key institutions, the National Assembly scores the lowest level of public trust, after a decrease by about 10 per cent in a month.

The approval rating of the Caretaker cabinet rose by about 3 percentage points from July to 54 per cent in August. The most readily recognizable ministers, Economy Minister Kiril Petkov and Finance Minister Assen Vassilev, have approval ratings of 42 per cent and 31 per cent respectively.

The main takeaway from TISP's failed cabinet-forming mandate and the subsequent developments is that the responsibility is shared by the non-establishment parties, also known as protest parties - a view expressed by more than 40 per cent of voters.

One in four blame the failure on TISP and 15 per cent blame the other two parties, Democratic Bulgaria and Rise Up, Buglaria We Come!

It is the political developments of the last few weeks that have caused a decline in the public approval of the protest parties, which is more marked for TISP and less so for Democratic Bulgaria and Rise Up! At the same time, the BSP and the MRF have partly resumed lost ground./bta

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