Bulgarian Mathematician: Mortality Rate Will Increase Four-Fold in Coming Weeks, It’s Time for Lockdown

Health | March 10, 2021, Wednesday // 10:32|  views

"Within a month and a half, the number of hospitalized can reach 9,000. The record so far was just 7,200 registered on December 13 last year. This happened two weeks after the decision on lockdown was taken. There will also be 16,000 deaths in April, the mathematical models show. In the coming weeks, the death toll will jump by up to four-fold," mathematician Petar Velkov stated in the studio of "Hello, Bulgaria" on Nova TV.

According to him, the number of people hospitalized in Bulgaria also raises concern. It has already reached 6,000.

"People get to intensive care wards about 3 times faster in the last 17 days, and the lethality risk is also growing," the mathematician adds.

"With this novel variant of the virus, the chance of hospitalization is 60% higher. All the data show that the damage to the economies would be greater if timely medical measures are not taken", said Petar Velkov.

"The main capital of the economy is people. Studies show that about 10% of those who fall ill are diagnosed with the so-called "Long COVID-19," meaning they have long-term consequences of infection," the specialist adds.

According to him, the measures that were implemented in November should be taken now. "In Bulgaria we can also witness morbidity rates that we currently see in the Czech Republic. By the end of the month we will reach high morbidity levels. If the measures are not taken soon, it will inevitably lead to the closure of the state. The point is to do it now so that we can then reopen with less damage."

Meanwhile, on bTV, the Director of "Pirogov" emergency hospital Asen Baltov said that if the restrictive measures do not help contain the infection at regional level, new restrictions will be introduced at the central level for the whole country.

At the moment in "Pirogov" we are not at the braking point, we have 319 Covid patients, reported Baltov.

According to him, the increase in the number of those infected with coronavirus is due to both the loosening of measures and the British mutation of COVID-19.

'Unfortunately, colleagues in the UK have proved to be right saying that in people of a younger age the disease takes more severe course. And active people are precisely between the ages of 20 and 50 who communicate actively", said the director of "Pirogov".

Baltov said that there are 40-year-old patients who need intubation when admitted to the hospital . The reason for this situation is also the fact that they seek hospital care very late and try to heal at home.

According to the director of "Pirogov" there should be mandatory quarantine for people returning from a vacation in Africa, since the symptoms of the disease manifest themselves within seven days.





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Tags: Bulgaria, lockdown, mortality rate, morbidity growth


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