Covid-19 in Bulgaria: New Shipment of Oxford/AstraZeneca Arrived in Sofia

Today at 10:00 a.m., 76,800 doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine arrived in Bulgaria.

The shipment was received at the warehouse of "BulBio", from where the doses will bedistributed to the regional health inspectorates in the country.

The next delivery of COVID-19 vaccines is expected to arrive on Friday, March 12, from manufacturer Oxford University/AstraZeneca – 28,800 doses.

"If we do not administer vaccines and things develop as they have developed so far in Bulgaria, we would see an end to the epidemic sometime by the middle of next year – it means that about 70% of the population of Bulgaria will have met with the coronavirus,”told BNR Prof. Ognyan Kunchev from the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics with the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences.

"In total, there will be about 50,000 people who will have died by the middle of next year. Of those 50,000, you have to take out those 10,500 who have died so far," Prof . Kunchev commented. Today scientists from BAS, Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski" and the New Bulgarian University will present several possible scenarios for the development of the Covid-19 pandemic based on mathematical models.

“If the vaccination plan is optimally implemented with the set parameters and about 100-120 thousand people per month are vaccinated, the epidemic will be over by October or by the end of this year at the latest,” said Prof. Ognyan Kunchev in the show "Before All".

The registered number of infected is not real, the real and unregistered cases are at least three or four times more, Kunchev commented, adding that this is the case everywhere, not only in Bulgaria.

"So, they are about 1 million, we're estimating roughly. Of that 1 million, we have 10,000 people who have died. To infect the remaining up to 5 million, the total number of people who died in such vaccine-free strategies is about 50,000 people. That's the reality, we cannot turn a blind eye to it.'

If we accept the hypothesis of a vaccine-free development of the epidemic and if we want it to end by April-May next year with a soft, relaxed lockdown, as in Bulgaria, we still have to comply with the measures until then, Ognyan Kunchev is adamant.

Mathematicians' calculations are based on a classic approach, but the model is being updated due to the new coronavirus variants, Prof. Kunchev explained.

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