Forecast: The Peak of COVID-19 in Bulgaria will be on April 24

The peak of the coronavirus epidemic in Bulgaria will be on April 24. This is predicted by the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, quoted by 24 hours newspaper. The Institute prepares pandemic development scenarios in over 40 countries.

According to the forecasts for Bulgaria the peak of the COVID-19 infection in Bulgaria will be between April 19 and April 30. 9 or 10 deaths per day can be expected in the country during this period, after which they will start to decrease and there will be no deaths after May 28th.

In the worst case scenario, deaths could reach 57 per day. The model predicts 303 death cases in Bulgaria by August 4. Estimates for Bulgaria indicate that the bed

capacity is many times more than needed and the country will need 74 respirators.

The data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation are constantly updated and are valid if the measure “full social distance until May 2020” is imposed.

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