British Scientists: COVID-19 Can Kill 1.8 Million People WorldwideWorld | March 27, 2020, Friday // 08:36| views
The coronavirus epidemic could kill 1.8 million people worldwide. This is predicted by scientists at the Imperial College in London, BTA reported.
These hypotheses are based on mathematical simulations that take into account the infectivity and the estimated mortality of COVID-19.
A previous report from the Imperial College in mid-March indicated that the epidemic could kill up to 510,000 people in the UK and affect 81 per cent of the population in a purely hypothetical situation, with no action taken.
This publication has received much criticism from the scientific community, but has prompted the government to change its strategy to combat the epidemic.
In a sobering projection of what could have happened with no interventions at all, the study said that if left unchecked COVID-19 could have infected almost everyone on the planet this year and killed 40 million people.
The report then looks at different levels of response, from spontaneous social distancing to the tough lock down measures currently imposed in some worst-affected countries, and projects the potential health impacts across 202 countries.
With strict containment measures imposed early enough -- resulting in a rate of deaths of 0.2 per 100,000 of population per week -- the modelling shows a death toll of 1.86 million people, with nearly 470 million infected this year.
If the same measures were taken later -- leading to 1.6 deaths per 100,000 of population per week -- the estimated toll rises sharply to 10.45 million deaths and 2.4 billion people infected, rfl reported.
"Our analysis highlights the challenging decisions faced by all governments in the coming weeks and months, but demonstrates the extent to which rapid, decisive and collective action now could save millions of lives," the authors said.
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