Bulgarian Population Could Drop Below Five Million in 2070 - Forecast

Society | August 17, 2015, Monday // 20:28|  views

The population of Bulgaria could decrease by two million people, dropping to a total of five million people in 2070.

A pessimistic forecast of the National Statistical Institute (NSI) on the demographic outlook of Bulgaria until 2070 shows that the population of Bulgaria could be only 4.9 million people in 2070.

The greater problem is that the decrease in the population will be accompanied by aging, high mortality rate, dropping fertility rate and emigration of young people.

The number of pensioners will surpass the number of working people, private bTV station informs.

According to the most probable realistic forecast, the Bulgarian population will decrease by more than two million people in the next 55 years, dropping to a total of 5 132 023 people.

The optimistic forecast predicts that the Bulgarian population will be 5.5 million in 2070, meaning that even under the best case scenario the number of Bulgarians will decrease by more than 30 000 annually.

This is the approximate number of the inhabitants living in towns such as Razgrad and Dupnitsa.

In case the pessimistic prediction is fulfilled, the Bulgarian population will exceed its 1920 figure by only 100 000 people, when the country started recovering from three wars and two national disasters.

At present 100 working people are providing the pensions for 78 retired people, while in thirty years the same ratio will be 100 working people to 109 pensioners.

The decrease in the workforce will lead to a lack of well-prepared cadres and will pose a threat to the development of the economy.

The government will have to propose to parliament measures on overcoming the demographic crisis until the end of November.

One of the proposals foresees that the adoption of each bill should be accompanied by an assessment of its impact on the population.

The Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAN) is also developing a national strategy on demographic development and it is expected that the ideas of the scientists will be presented until the end of the year in order for parliament to discuss them.

The population of Sofia will be the only one to record growth as it is expected to increase by 275 000 to a total number of 1.6 million in 2070, meaning that around 30 % of Bulgarians will live in the capital.

Bulgaria has the highest mortality rate in the EU, while its fertility rate is below the EU average.

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Tags: Bulgaria, population, mortality, fertility, pensioners, demographics, NSI, aging, emigration, economy, ban, demographic crisis, EU


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