Jay Ogilvy: “No Winner-Take-All Solution" Likely to Succeed in Ukraine

An Ukrainian serviceman of the `Donbass battalion` fires a rocket propelled grenade launcher during a training session at a shooting range near of the eastern city of Mariupol, Ukraine, 01 April 2015. EPA/BGNES

The “obsessive focus” of US media on the personality of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the context of the conflict in Ukraine “obscures much more important geopolitical realities”, Jay Ogilvy writes in an analysis posted on the website of Stratfor, the geopolitical intelligence firm. 

Ukraine is different from most of its neighbors in Eastern Europe, the author writes, explaining why in his opinion ”the dominant US narrative” that Ukraine is just one more Eastern European countries “trying to to pry itself out from under seven decades of Soviet oppression” is misleading.

While Poland, Latvia and Romania “are each largely united by a shared language and culture” and “further fused through suffering from prior Russian incursions”, Ukraine “is both deeply divided, culturally and politically, and its eastern half is strongly bound to Russia.”

Ukraine’s presidential elections of 2004, 2010 and 2014 invariably showed a deep political divide along language lines, Ogilvy says, warning against simplistic interpretation of the reasons for the current conflict in Ukraine

“No winner-take-all solution to its [Ukraine’s] problems is likely to succeed,” the author opines.

You can read the full article “Backtracking From the Brink in Ukraine” here:

 

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