Bulgarian Politics: Unhappy Election and Inconclusive Result

The Economist

"IN THE middle of the crisis, the head of state was left alone," complains Rosen Plevneliev, Bulgaria's president. He is still upset by the decision of Boyko Borisov to resign as prime minister in the midst of the country's worst anti-government protests in 16 years.

Mr Borisov, a burly ex-bodyguard, did not want to be part of an increasingly unpopular government which protesters blamed for rampant corruption and high energy bills. He may have hoped his resignation would improve his chances of re-election.

If so, his hopes seem to have been dashed. In the general election on May 12th his centre-right GERB party won 31% of the vote against 27% for the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Turkish minority party, DPS, came third with about 11%. The fourth party to win seats was Ataka, an ultra-nationalist group, which took 7%. "For the first time in Bulgaria's new history a party has won two consecutive elections," declared Georgi Markov, a former judge at the Constitutional Court. Yet, also for the first time, a party won with fewer votes than before. The outcome suggests a hung parliament, observers say. With 97 deputies GERB is well short of a majority in the 240-seat chamber. The party lost about a third of its support compared with the 2009 election.

Mr Plevneliev wants a new government to be formed as soon as possible so that parliament can start work on a new special law for the energy regulator and several other reforms. Yet party leaders are likely to indulge in weeks of horse trading. "It is clear that GERB will not be able to form a government," said Sergei Stanishev, the Socialists' leader. The political leaders of DPS and Ataka have promised not to back GERB. Mr Stanishev has proposed a technocratic government led by the Socialists in alliance with these two smaller parties. In this he seems to be disregarding Ataka's anti-Turkish (and anti-Roma) stance and its call for a ban on the Turkish minority party.

This was a listless election at an unhappy time. Turnout was at a record low of just above 50%. The run-up to the election was overshadowed by wiretapping scandals and accusations of vote-rigging. A day before the vote prosecutors found 350,000 unaccounted-for ballots at a printing plant whose owner is said to be close to Mr Borisov's party. Allegations of illegal wiretapping led prosecutors to accuse GERB's campaign manager and Tsvetan Tsvetanov, a former interior minister, of "deliberately allowing his subordinates, the directors of the wiretapping department, to commit crimes". Mr Tsvetanov, who cannot be charged because of his parliamentary immunity, has denied wrongdoing.

"We were shocked by the alienation between citizens and institutions," said Andreas Gross, head of a Council of Europe observer delegation, after the vote. Worn out by rising unemployment and growing poverty, Bulgarians have lost confidence in the electoral process and in state institutions. Unemployment is 13-14%, up from 6% in 2007. The average salary is €400 (5); over a fifth of the 7.4m population lives below the poverty line.

Is a new election the answer? "Quick elections after elections won't change anything," says Mr Plevneliev. Somehow the four parties that got over the 4% threshold to enter parliament must cobble together a government. But it is unlikely to provide the stability Bulgaria badly needs.

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