National Stats Release Key Indicators for Bulgaria

In the first quarter of 2012 Bulgaria's GDP recalculated in Euro was EUR 8 029.8 M. File photo

In June 2012, the industrial confidence indicator in Bulgaria decreases by 1.1 percentage points in comparison with May.

The report on key indicators of Bulgarian economy was published Monday by the National Statistics Institute, NSI.

In April 2012, the work day adjusted Industrial Production Index rose by 0.3% as compared to the respective month of 2011 (by operative flash data estimates). An increase was recorded in 'Manufacturing' - by 4.2%, while decreases were registered in the 'Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply' - by 11.9% and in the 'Mining and Quarrying Industry' - by 5.1%.

According to the preliminary operative data, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2012 amounted to BGN 15 705 M at current prices and GDP per person amounted to BGN 2 145.9. At average exchange rate for the quarter of BGN 1.4924 for 1 US dollar, GDP amounted to USD 10 523 M million and respectively to USD 1 437.8 per person. GDP recalculated in Euro was EUR 8 029.8 M or EUR 1 097.2 per person. In comparison with the first quarter of 2011, the real volume of GDP increased by 0.5%, according to the seasonally adjusted data

Private Consumption

In April 2012, the total consumer confidence indicator preserves its January level. According to the consumers' assessments, there is a certain positive change in the financial situation of households over the last 12 months. People living in the cities expect that it will continue over the next 12 months, whereas rural population is slightly more pessimistic than they were 3 months ago.

In April 2012, the work day adjusted turnover in Retail Trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles declined by 0.3% in comparison with the same month of the previous year (by preliminary data). An increase was observed in the 'Retail Sale via Mail Order Houses or via Internet' by 12.5%, in the 'Dispensing Chemist: Retail Sale of Medical and Orthopedic Goods; Cosmetic and Toilet Articles' by 8.5%, in the 'Retail Sale of Computers, Peripheral Units and Software; Telecommunications Equipment' by 5.9% and in the 'Retail Sale of Food, Beverages and Tobacco' by 2.8%.

A 21.1% drop was observed the turnover in the 'Retail Sale of Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Leather Goods'; it was 12.4% in the 'Other Retail Sale in Non-specialized stores', 3.6% in the 'Retail Sale of Automotive Fuel' and 0.5% in the 'Retail Sale of Audio and Video Equipment; Hardware, Paints and Glass; Electrical Household Appliances'.

In the first quarter of 2012, 77.3% of the produced GDP were spent for individual consumption of the population. The real increase of the indicator was 1.0% in comparison with the respective quarter of 2011 (according to seasonally adjusted data).

Investment

The average capacity utilization in industry in April 2012 decreased by 2.0 percentage points, compared to January and was assessed to be 69.9%.

In the first quarter of 2012, the gross fixed capital formation decreased in real terms (according to the seasonally adjusted data) by 5.4% in comparison with the same period of the previous year. The relative share of that category in GDP is 19.7%.

Labor Market

In the first quarter of 2012, the total number of employed persons aged 15 and over was 2 853.2 thousand and their relative share of the population of the same age group was 45.1%. In comparison with the same period of 2011, the number of persons employed decreased by 51.2 thousand and the employment rate - by 0.5 percentage points.

The number of unemployed persons in the first quarter of 2012 was 421.4 thousand and the unemployment rate - 12.9%. The number of unemployed persons compared to the same quarter of the previous year increased by 4.8% and the unemployment rate - by 0.7 percentage points.

According to the NSI business inquiries, in June 2012, 8.9% of the industrial enterprises pointed out labor shortage as a factor limiting their activity.

In March 2012, the average wage and salary was BGN 754 (by preliminary data) which is by 4.9% higher than the previous month. In comparison with March 2011 the growth rate is 9.4%.

International Transactions

According to the industrial managers' assessments in June 2012 compared to May an improvement of the orders from abroad by 11.4 percentage points was registered.

In the period of January - April 2012, the current account recorded a deficit of EUR 597.5 M (1.5% of the predicted GDP for 2012), against a deficit of EUR 204.1 M (0.5% of GDP) in the period of January - April 2011.

The trade balance deficit for the period January - April 2012 was negative amounting to EUR 1 214.9 M (3.1% of the projected GDP for 2012), compared with a deficit of EUR 434.1 M (1.1% of GDP) in the same period of 2011.

Exports of goods (FOB) in the period of January - April 2012 totaled EUR 6 284.4 M, down by 1.7% (EUR 109.6 M) year-on-year (from EUR 6 393.9 M). Exports in the period of January - April 2011 increased by 52% year-on-year.

Imports of goods (FOB) for the period of January - April 2012 amounted to EUR 7 499.3 M, compared with EUR 6 828 M for the same period of 2011, and on a year-on-year basis increased by 9.8% in January – April 2012 and by 31.3% in the same period of the previous year.

Direct investment abroad in the period January - April 2012 totaled EUR 39.1 M against EUR 48.8 M in the same period of 2011.

The Foreign direct investment in Bulgaria in the period January - April 2012 totaled EUR 407.2 M (1.0% of the predicted GDP for 2012), against EUR 63.1 million (0.2% of GDP) in the same period of 2011.

In the period of January - April 2012, portfolio investment assets increased by EUR 77.6 M, compared with a decrease of EUR 86.2 M in the same period of 2011. Portfolio investment liabilities declined by EUR 116.6 M, compared with a decrease of EUR 92.1 M for January- April 2011.

The external balance (exports-imports) in the first quarter of 2012 was negative amounting to BGN 1 490 M.

Prices

In May 2012 the harmonized index of consumer prices increased by 1.8% compared to the same month of 2011.

A rise of prices was observed in all groups, with the exception of 'Recreation and Culture,' 'Communications' and 'Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance of the House.' The highest increase was registered in the 'Health' sector - by 9.0%.

The Producer Price Index on Domestic Market in April 2012 grew by 5.0% compared to the same month of 2011. Domestic prices increased in the 'Mining and Quarrying Industry' - by 2.0%, in the 'Manufacturing' by 4.2% and in the 'Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply' - by 7.9%.

According to the business climate inquiry, in June 2012, the industrial entrepreneurs expect certain increase of the selling prices over the next 3 months.

Monetary and Financial Indicators

In May 2012, the three-month interbank market index SOFIBOR decreased from 2.71 to 2.59% in comparison with the previous month, whereas the value in May 2011 was 3.77%.

In May 2012, the annual growth rate of broad money (aggregate M3) was 10.9% compared to 11.6% in April 2012, as at the end of May 2012 M3 was BGN 58.427 B (75.0% of GDP projected for 2012) compared to BGN 58.319 B (74.9% of GDP) in April 2012.

The volume of the loans to non-financial corporations, households and NPISHs in May 2012 amounted to BGN 52.671 B (67.6% of the GDP projected for 2012). The loans to non-financial corporations increased by 6.1% annually in May 2012 (5.3% annual growth in April 2012) and at the end of the month amounted to BGN 33.883 B (43.5% of GDP). Loans to households and NPISHs were BGN 18.788 B (24.1% of GDP) at the end of May 2012, as they decreased by 0.8% compared to the same month of 2011.

In May 2012 the exchange rate BGN against the USD increased in comparison with the previous month from 1.49 to 1.53.

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