Bulgaria's Economy Expands by 1.5% % in Q4 Y/Y

In the fourth quarted of 2011, the GDP increase in Bulgaria is 0.4%, compared with the third quarter. File photo

The Gross Domestic Product, GDP, in Bulgaria in the fourth quarter of 2011 increased by 1,5%, compared with the same quarter of the previous year.

The increase is 0.4% compared with the third quarter of 2011. These flash estimates were released Wednesday by the Bulgarian National Statistics Institute, NSI.

According to the flash GDP estimates for the fourth quarter of 2011, the GDP at current prices amounted to BGN 20 447 M.

Bulgaria's gross value added, GVA, at current prices amounted to BGN 17 579 M. The services sector have the largest share (63.3%) in total value added, followed by industrial sector (33%). The agricultural sector constitutes 3.7% of value added in the total economy.

In the structure of GDP by the expenditure approach, the largest share in GDP has the final consumption (77.7%), which in nominal terms amounted to BGN 15 890 M. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the gross fixed capital formation is BGN 5 892 M and has a share of 28.8% in GDP. The external balance (exports minus imports) was negative.

The GDP increase is 0.4%, compared with the third quarter of 2011.

In the fourth quarter of 2011 gross value added of the total economy increased by 0.1%, compared to third quarter of 2011.

According to flash estimates of GDP by final expenditure, in the fourth quarter of 2011, final consumption expenditure recorded increase by 0.4%. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 4.0%. Exports of goods and services in the fourth quarter increased by 3.8% compared to the previous one. During the same period, imports of goods and services increased by 1.3%.

During the fourth quarter of 2011 gross value added increased by 1.6% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The indicator's increase is determined mainly by the increase recorded in the agriculture (5.0%) and industry sector (0.4%). The services sector has a negative contribution to value added with a decline of 6.1% over the period.

As regards the expenditure component of GDP, the main contributor to registered positive economic growth is the export of goods and services which increased by 10%. Final consumption recorded increase by 1.4% and gross fixed capital formation recorded decrease by 6.5% to the corresponding quarter of previous year. The import of goods and services registered increase by 3.4%.

According to the 2011 flash estimates the level of nominal GDP amounted to BGN 76 170 M. GDP at 2005 constant prices increased by 1.6% compared with the previous year. The GVA generated by the national economy reached BGN 65 711 M at current prices. Compared to 2010 the gross value added increased by 1.7%.

The growth rate is calculated by using chain-linked estimates of the GDP components based on average 2005 prices.

The Eurostat (the statistical office of the EU) defines a flash estimates as: „...the earliest picture of the economy according to national accounts concepts, which is produced and published as soon as possible after the end of the quarter, using a more incomplete set of information than that used for traditional quarterly accounts..."

Flash estimates for GDP are based on the preliminary available monthly and quarterly indicators for the components of GDP structure (subject to subsequent update and revisions).

Flash estimates of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011 were prepared within 45 days after the reference period. They are presented in a standard format for publication of quarterly national accounts data - current prices, relative shares of the components in the GDP structure and growth rates as compared with the previous quarter and compared with the same period of the previous year.

According to the Calendar of statistical surveys, NSI will prepare and publish official quarterly estimates of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011 on 6 March 2012.

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