EU, IMF, ECB Give Green Light to New Bailout Tranche for Greece

Medical personel of Athens` hospitals protest in central Athens on 11 October 2011. Protesters oppose strict austerity measures imposed by the Greek government and the troika. EPA/BGNES

The troika of the EU, IMF, and the ECB has allowed the release of the new tranche of bailout aid to Greece even though a review of the Greek bailout program has concluded that the 2011 fiscal goals will be missed.

Staff teams from the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded Tuesday their fifth review mission to Greece to discuss recent economic developments, and authorized the release of EUR 8 B aid tranche in November 2011.

The mission has reached staff-level agreement with the authorities on the economic and financial policies needed to bring the government's economic program back on track, the troika said in a statement.

"Regarding the outlook, the recession [in Greece] will be deeper than was anticipated in June and a recovery is now expected only from 2013 onwards. There is no evidence yet of improvement in investor sentiment and the related increase in investments, in part because the reform momentum has not gained the critical mass necessary to begin transforming the investment climate," the EC-IMF-ECB statement reads.

However, it points out that Greece's exports are rebounding - albeit from a low base - and a shift towards a more dynamic export sector, supported by a moderation of unit labor costs, should lead to more balanced and sustainable growth over the medium term. Inflation in Greece has come down over the last year and is expected to remain below the euro area average in the period ahead.

"In the fiscal area, the government has achieved a major reduction in the deficit since the start of the program despite a deep recession. However, the achievement of the fiscal target for 2011 is no longer within reach, partly because of a further drop in GDP, but also because of slippages in the implementation of some of the agreed measures," the international financial institutions and the ECB have concluded.

As for 2012, the mission believes that the additional measures announced by the Greek government, in combination with a determined implementation of the adjusted Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy, should be sufficient to bring the fiscal program back on track and ensure that the deficit target of EUR 14.9 B will be met.

Looking to 2013-14, additional measures are likely to be needed to meet program targets, the troika says, adding, "Such measures should be adopted in the context of an update of the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy by mid-2012. To ensure that the program is growth-friendly, and in view of the ambitious assumptions regarding improvement in revenue administration already embedded in the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy, it is essential that such measures focus on the expenditure side."

In the area of privatization, the EC, ECB, and IMF said that Greece has achieved progress with the creation of a professionally managed privatization fund.

"However, delays in the preparation of the assets for privatization, and to some extent worse market conditions, mean that revenues in 2011 will be significantly lower than expected. The [Greek] government remains, however, committed to the revenue target of EUR 35 B by the end of 2014. Ensuring that the privatization fund remains independent from political pressures remains key for success in this area," the troika declared.

It added further that Greek banks have improved their capital base through market-based means, and that as evident from this weekend's resolution of Proton Bank, the recent amendment of the banking law ensures that non-viable banks can be wound down while protecting depositors' interest and preserving the stability of the financial system.

Greece is further said to have made progress with respect to structural reforms in the transport sector, licensing procedures, and regulated professions. As overall progress has been uneven, a reinvigoration of reforms remains the overarching challenge facing the authorities, the troika has found.

"Overall, the authorities continue to make important progress, notably with regard to fiscal consolidation. To ensure a further reduction in the deficit in a socially acceptable manner and to set the stage for a recovery to take hold, it is essential that the authorities put more emphasis on structural reforms in the public sector and the economy more broadly," the EC, ECB, and IMF said.

The troika has stressed that the success of the Greek bailout program continues to depend on mobilizing adequate financing from private sector involvement (PSI) and the official sector. Ongoing discussions on PSI together with assurances provided by European leaders at their July 21 summit suggest that the program remains fully financed.

"Once the Eurogroup and the IMF's Executive Board have approved the conclusions of the fifth review, the next tranche of EUR 8 B (EUR 5.8 B by the euro area Member States, and EUR 2.2 B by the IMF) will become available, most likely, in early November," the troika announced.

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