Regional Minister Best Presidency Bidder of Bulgaria's Rulers - Sociologist

Suspicions grow that GERB will nominate Regional Development Minister Rosen Plevneliev as its presidential runner. Photo by BGNES

Bulgaria's ruling center-right party GERB will benefit by nominating Regional Development Minister Rosen Plevneliev for President, according to a sociological agency.

Plevneliev is the most well-known face of the GERB government after Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, sociologist Boryana Dimitrov, managing partner at the Alpha Research agency told the 24 Chasa daily in an interview.

In her words, the main opposition candidates – ex EU Commissioner Meglena Kuneva and ex Foreign Minister Ivaylo Kalfin – have almost equal chances to make it to the runoff of the Bulgarian presidential elections, whose first round is scheduled for October 23, against a candidate of GERB.

Dimitrova believes that the support for Ivaylo Kalfin, who is the presidential candidate of the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party and some other smaller leftist movements, comes entirely from a mobilization of the party membership, while the support for Kuneva – who is associated with the former Tsar and former PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg's party NSMP but is running as an independent – comes from people who are disappointed from the political party establishments in Bulgaria.

"Thus, even though Kuneva and Kalfin have similar public support in terms of quantity, the social groups backing these two candidates are very different, and have a different potential for growth," the sociologist believes.

In her words, the major factor that might determine whether Kuneva or Kalfin will have a better chance against a candidate of GERB and Borisov is the approach that GERB will take towards the presidential election campaign.

"A strongly partisan campaign similar to the parliamentary elections will reduce the chances of the "third" candidate, while a more moderate campaign that will shift attention to personalities will lead to a stronger performance of candidates with a non-partisan image," Dimitrova said.

While she thinks that Regional Development Minister Plevneliev will be a very strong presidential candidate, the sociologist also warns that his win should not be taken for granted because he has been viewed primarily as a technocrat and a business expert so far.

"The transition from an expert function – which led people to like him – to a politically representative position such as the President's job is the trajectory that Mr. Plevneliev will have make with a short period of time in order to win the presidential elections. This will also mean that the Cabinet will need to find its next key player," the sociologist from Alpha Research says.

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