Borisov's Presidential Bid to Signal 'Bulgaria Govt Deadlock'

Domestic | May 10, 2011, Tuesday // 15:31|  views

Political experts believe that Prime Minister Borisov`s presidential bid will signal a government deadlock. Photo by BGNES.

Boyko Borisov's nomination for president will be a sign that Bulgaria's cabinet has reached a standstill, analysts say.

"If Borisov wins, there are two main scenarios that could unfold," Tsvetozar Tomov, director of the Skala research agency, said in an interview for Sega daily.

Under the first option, which he sees as less likely, Borisov and GERB score a violent victory at the first round and Tsvetanov is elected Prime Minister.

Once this happens, potential public unrest is dampened, regardless of the cost, the legislative system is quickly subordinated to the executive authorities and a part of the "grey" economic elite and the political adversaries are rendered legally accountable, which will appeal to the public.

"This scenario, however, can not take place without vote manipulations," Tomov stressed.

Under the second version, a backstage political conspiracy leads Borisov to a victory at the run-offs, without gross vote rigging, and a moderate and relatively competent Prime Minister is elected in his place (Kristalina Georgieva, Rosen Plevneliev, Simeon Dyankov).

After that, Borisov begins to gradually distance himself from the Cabinet and GERB, if social discontent continues to rise, and pre-term parliamentary elections are called, if this government fails notably.

Commenting on the right-wing presidential nominations, Tomov points out that if the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) singles out Rumen Hristov, it will signal a "fixed match" between UDF and ruling party GERB for the presidential elections.

Tomov doubts that the Blue Coalition will survive in its current form if things unfold as expected.

As regards Meglena Kuneva's bid, she could be a dangerous rival to Borisov at a second round of the elections, according to Tomov.

However, Kuneva seems more likely to not make it to a ballot stage, if she decides to participate in the campaign, given the current situation, according to him.

Tomov believes that the current Election Code has been designed to allow vote skewing.

"A total of 300 000-350 000 fake votes can be expected in this election," he said, specifying that an exact estimation is impossible.

In his words, phantom votes are not the only risk factor for the upcoming elections. Other threats are conformism and political fear on the part of the voters, especially the ones that belong to marginalized groups and ethnic minorities.

"The more unpopular those in power grow, the more likely they are to resort to violence, vote buying and forging," Tomov says.

He believes that the presidential elections are the only legitimate chance for Bulgarians to say "no" to an increasingly terrorist-like regime of a populist-minded ruler, who is totally deprived of a sense of responsibility to the people and society.

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Tags: Prime Minister, Boyko Borisov, presidential bid, Presidential elections, vote buying, rigged vote, UDF, Blue Coaliation, Meglena Kuneva, Rumen Hristov


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