Bulgarian Experts: Gaddafi Recaptures Initiative as Libyan Opposition Blunders

Libyans militias controlling the entrance of the city of Shahad in the rebel area of the country, in Lybia, 27 February 2011. EPA/BGNES

The Libyan opposition may fail in its attempts to topple the regime of notorious dictator Muammar Gaddafi because of its blunders, according to Bulgarian experts on the Arab world.

In an analysis entitled "The Lack of Military Experience of the Opposition Props Up Gaddafi" published by orient.bg, a website dedicated to research and studying of the Middle East by Bulgarian scholars, the current Libyan opposition is exposed as "somewhat overbearing" in its attitudes, which might cost it the victory over Gaddafi.

The article of orient.bg points out that the UN Security Council sanctions have not only failed to dissuade the Libyan dictator from using force but he has also managed to regroup his forces by using aviation to transport reinforcements from the southern part of Libya to the main theater of clashes with the pro-democracy protesters.

The fresh pro-regime forces have been brought to Tripoli, Misurata, and Sirt, thus cutting off the opposition troops.

The article of orient.bg on the situation in Libya cites military experts as saying that the opposition forces hardly stand a chance against the well-trained and loyal Qaddafi troops; their only hope in military terms is that the regime forces will be weakened by a large number of deserters but such a possibility cannot really win the battle.

"Another mistake is that the opposition still has not consolidated itself in the eastern part of the country in order to use them as a safe haven," say the Bulgarian experts, while pointing out that the Libyan opposition appears to be only loosely connected in a "Transition National Council" with ties to local committees across Libya which are not under Gaddafi's control. It is unclear if the temporary government announced by former Libyan justice minister Abdel Jalil works in coordination with the Council.

At the same time, the Libyan branch of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood has issued a declaration in support of Jalil's efforts but saying also that the new government must not include people involved in the 1968 coup or in the crimes of Gaddafi regime.

"Apparently, the heads of the opposition believe that they will be able to capture Tripoli almost without efforts. The observers are positive that in the region around the capital most of the tribes remain hesitant. They have assumed a waiting, neutral position. A number of representatives of the state institutions and law enforcement institutions are stepping down but are not taking the side of the opposition," explain the Bulgarian scholars.

They describe the unwillingness of the Libyan opposition to accept military help from the West as a "fatal mistake," and points out that the opposition has even declared it would fight Western forces if there is a military intervention. Adbul Jalil has himself refuted Hillary Clinton's claims that the USA has ties with the Libyan opposition.

Western military strategists are cited as saying that the opposition appears to be too complacent in its belief that it will prevail over Gaddafi without foreign support, and especially without air cover. The absence of military aviation on part of the opposition is said to prevent them from being able to cut the supply of fresh reinforcements for Gaddafi.

The article of orient.bg reminds that Gaddafi has spent 20 years of his 41-year rule in international sanctions. The effect of the UN sanctions is said to be very slow if it comes at all. What is more, Gaddafi is expected to be able to draw on a large amount of petrodollars to fund his military, and hire mercenaries.

The Bulgarian experts on the Middle East publishing orient.bg believe that he will be able to put up a long resistance to the opposition efforts even though they do think that "history is writing the last chapter about the rule of colonel Gaddafi in Libya."

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