Sociologist Mira Radeva: 'Tapegate' Polarized Bulgarian Society 'for' and 'against' Boyko Borisov

Interview of Novinite.com (Sofia News Agency) with Mira Yanova, Director of the Sofia-based Institute of Social Surveys and Marketing MBMD, founded in 1991.

What do you think is the most important aspect of the ongoing political scandal in Bulgaria with the leaked recordings of conversations of senior government officials (the so called "Tapegate"), which shook Bulgarian politics in the recent weeks?

For me as a researcher of public opinion what comes first is the way the Bulgarian society accepts what happened and what the political consequences of this episode are.

An express poll that we carried out showed that "different ears" heard the story in different ways.

The public reaction boils down to the polarization of two large groups in the Bulgarian society – supporters and opponents to the Borisov Cabinet, which are about the same size.

Since this is just one more affair in which the Bulgarian society is given the truth in small bites, and the entire public spectrum in Bulgaria is dimmed from too much talk and complaints, the majority of the Bulgarians cannot arrive at a final conclusion regarding the events around Tapegate, and thus divide into groups liking and disliking Boyko Borisov based solely on their emotional response.

What are the specific consequences from "Tapegate" for Bulgaria's ruling center-right party GERB and the government of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov?

If we are talking about the elections in the fall, these events and developments are inevitably ruining the political image of GERB and Boyko Borisov. This is a fact.

But it is also true that the opposing side does not seem very strong since it is also burdened with doubts of political corruption.

Just how useful a move for Prime Minister Borisov was the confidence vote in Parliament given that new discrediting tapes continued and are likely to continue to emerge? How much time did the Bulgarian government manage to buy with that move?

It depends on how you define "buying" here. If you mean putting an end to the attacks against them – they have won little or no time.

On the other hand, the Cabinet demonstrated that it has a sufficiently stable support in Parliament, and intends to complete its term unperturbed.

Regardless of the emergence of a public discontent, other governments in the past have managed to complete their four-year term successfully. Boyko Borisov has the chance to do the same thing.

Even though there are several months before Bulgaria votes in its Presidential and local elections in October 2011, how do you view the political configurations in the country at present and the chances of the ruling and opposition parties? For example the informal coalition between the center-right ruling party GERB and the nationalists from Ataka, the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the ABV movement of President Parvanov; the role of the marginal but vocal conservative party RZS?

It's very hard to talk about elections, especially presidential or local when the candidates are still unknown to the society. Oftentimes, the specific candidates can change the picture.

For the time being, however, it seems as though GERB has sufficiently strong positions to win the presidential elections and to receive substantial support in the local elections.

Yet, let's not forget the crucial role of Bulgaria's ethnic Turkish party DPS. The results from the presidential elections are almost certainly decided depending on who gets their support.

It is already clear that ABV – the movement of Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov – will not carry much weight. But on the other hand a potential alliance between the Bulgarian Socialist Party, the National Movement for Stability and Prosperity of Simeon Saxe-Coburg, and the ethnic Turkish party DPS (i.e. the 2005-2009 ruling coalition) can decide the outcome of the elections. RZS and Aleksei Petrov don't stand much chance.

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