Marin Lessenski, Open Society Analyst: Bulgaria Deserves, but Will Miss Schengen Entry in March 2011

Marin Lessenski is political analyst at the European Policies Initiative and expert at the European Policies and Civic Participation Program at the Open Society Institute, Sofia. He is Program Director of the Institute for Regional and International Studies.

Milena Hristova talked to Marin Lessenski as Novinite.com launched the new section "Bulgaria in 2011", highlighting the most important issues that the country will face next year.

Why is it so important for Bulgaria to accede to the Schengen zone in March 2011, a target date, which has been set as early as in 2007, during the term of the previous Socialist-led government?

The first reason I can think of is that because Bulgaria is obliged to join Schengen as provided in its EU accession treaty. The faster Bulgaria joins the club, the faster its can reap the benefits from membership. These may be political – joining an inner circle of European integration; economic – better for the trade, investment and tourism; for the citizens – facilitating their travel and stay in other Schengen countries (which include also countries outside of the EU such as Switzerland), etc.

Bulgarian experts are unanimous that the country meets the technical requirements. Can you confirm there are no technical criteria, which could hamper the process?

There are still some minor technical criteria has to be covered but it I believe it can be done within the required deadline.

Do you think Bulgaria deserves next year's entry?

Yes. The country should be admitted to the Schengen area as it has met the requirements set by the European Union itself.

Could a failure of either Bulgaria or Romania to join the visa-free zone jeopardise Schengen entry for the other?

This can happen indeed, but the merits of a common (Bulgarian-Romanian) accession process are more than the downsides. The situation is very similar to the very EU membership accession prior 2007, when we were also debating whether it is better to advance in tandem or separately.

The countries can hypothetically accede to Schengen separately but this is not politically feasible and advisable. There are two aspects to it: first, the political and normative aspect and second, the technical aspect.

In regard to the political and normative side, the two countries and the EU adopted a common schedule for preparations, monitoring and accession. Bulgaria and Romania has bilateral agreement that stipulates for this common advancement. This means that as an administrative and normative process, the countries are coupled together. The attempt of one country to separate from the other, because it is considered somewhat better prepared, will be perceived negatively by the other EU members and will have long-term negative effects on bilateral relations for just minor, short-term gains.

As far as the technical aspect is concerned, Romania and Bulgaria form together the eastern border of the EU and have a common border, so it makes much more sense to see all the long strip secured simultaneously than in portions over time – that is from the Romanian-Ukrainian border in the north, through the Black Sea to the Bulgarian-Turkish border to the south.

What will be the advantages and disadvantages for Bulgaria after it joins the European visa-free zone? What will be the impact on the business?

Businesses will be among the biggest beneficiaries from the Schengen entry. Now, Schengen-visa holders from third countries will no longer require a separate Bulgarian visa to come and trade with or invest in Bulgaria. Tourism, as one of the biggest sectors of economic activity will benefit too, as tourists with common visa will be no longer required to queue for another visa too and Bulgaria can be included in tourist packages with other European destinations. The border regions will be even more facilitated in the everyday exchange, trade and tourism.

How would you interpret a possible refusal by Brussels to delay the entry?

This will be another sign that the integration processes within the EU have stalled and the union will continue to function for some time with some forward groups – i.e. the Eurozone, Schengen, and the rest. Bulgaria has to do everything possible to join these "internal clubs".

Bulgaria's Prime Minister Boyko Borisov recently said in an interview that the country's bid to join the European visa-free Schengen zone in 2011 may fail because many countries are envious of its progress. How would you comment on that?

I'm not quite sure on what basis this reasoning was made. Bulgaria indeed stood very good chances a year ago to enter the ERM II because it kept good financial discipline, promised austerity measures and sound structural reforms – but this is no longer the case. Bulgaria did experience severe crisis, but the recovery efforts have been hampered by the indecisive reform efforts – or the lack of reforms – and the populist urges very visible in public spending.

Can Bulgaria succeed in its efforts to separate Schengen accession from the European Commission's continued monitoring of its justice reform and anti-corruption efforts?

Bulgaria should do everything to prevent the coupling of the two issues, but at the time being the coalition of member states that opposes early entry is too powerful. The argument of Bulgaria is that the Schengen requirements were quite clear and could not be altered three months before the date of accession.

Don't you think there is little common sense in this entanglement as it is impossible for Bulgaria to do away with corruption until the summer next year?

There is no chance for any country to do away with corruption completely – more so for such a short time. But the country should demonstrate considerable progress.

The upcoming local and presidential elections will be testing the integrity of both the government and the political parties'. In chasing election success and/or donors' funding, so the resolve of politicians to resist and fight corruption might be lost.

What do you think stands behind the reluctance of France, The Netherlands, Germany and Austria to let the two Balkan countries join the Agreement in 2011? Is it all about domestic politics and the voters in their own countries or they really believe the entry into Schengen will be premature, just as the EU entry?

Both reasons may hold true. One can argue that the actions were primarily prompted by domestic political reasons – an outcome of the 2010 elections in the Netherlands and preemptive act in view of the 2012 elections in France – undertaken to satisfy some internal political and public concerns. It is also true that Bulgaria and Romania were not very convincing in fulfilling the pledges they made prior the 2007 accession.

How serious do you think is Paris intention to delay the entry of Bulgaria and Romania to the Schengen zone? Could we see a repeat of the scenario in 2005-2006, when many countries threatened to hamper Bulgaria's EU accession but eventually swallowed the pill?

This is very likely scenario. Unfortunately, it is not only France, but also the Netherlands, that want to attach additional criteria for entering Schengen. Whatever the reason, it is very likely that Bulgaria and Romania might miss the March 2011 deadline and wait for the summer 2011 reports of the European Commission on the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM; e.g. progress in fighting crime and corruption).

We did not want this to happen, but alas the two separate processes – of Schengen accession and the CVM - were coupled together. It is in the best interest of Bulgaria and Romania now to make substantial progress as in covering the Schengen criteria as well as the CVM benchmarks.

How reasonable are fears that the flow of illegal immigrants will be diverted to Bulgaria?

The more developed and integrated into the EU Bulgaria becomes – including by entering Schengen – the more attractive it will be as for its citizens and legal migrants as well as possibly for illegal immigrants. The challenge of illegal immigration is common to all EU members, so one of the tasks for Schengen preparation is to prepare the country to effectively counter the illegal immigration.

Isn't Bulgaria's economic growth more important than Schengen?

We don't have actually to choose between the two, as we can have them both. In fact, entering Schengen would help, not hinder, economic growth. So any investment made to join Schengen will pay off directly and indirectly very soon - even that the costs of maintaining security along two of Schengen borders – with Greece and Romania – will no longer be made.

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